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Surgery Partners, Inc. (SGRY) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.02: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 24%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Surgery Partners owns and operates 176 surgical facilities (157 ASCs, 19 surgical hospitals) in 30 states generating ~$3.2B revenue from surgical facilities in 2025. Revenue is split ~43% government payors (Medicare/Medicaid) and ~52% private insurance.

$14.02+16.0% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#26 of 27 Medical Care Facilities
Stop $13.05Target $16.25(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.1:1
Analyst target$18.68+33.3%11 analysts
$16.25our TP
$14.02price
$18.68mean
$25

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.02: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 24%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 67. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: private insurance payors (52.0%)
Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.8), Material insider selling (3 sells, 13.86% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)35.7
Mkt Cap$1.8B
EV/EBITDA11.3
Profit Mgn-2.4%
ROE2.8%
Rev Growth2.4%
Beta1.99
DividendNone
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.29bullish
IV126%elevated
Max Pain$10-28.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerprivate insurance payors52%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Payments from private insurance payors...represented approximately 52%, 54% and 53% of our patient service revenue in 2025'
  • MEDIUMCustomergovernment payors (Medicare and Medicaid)43%
    10-K Item 1A: 'We derived approximately 43%, 41% and 42% of our revenue from government payors, including Medicare and Medicaid programs in 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MEarnings in 5 days

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
1.5
Support Resistance
3.3
Bollinger
3.8

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.0
Growth Rank
1.9
Value Rank
8.9

Unprofitable operations — net margin -2.4%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Net Margin
0.0
Gross Margin
0.6
Roe
0.9
Roa
2.5
Moat
5.0
Operating Margin
6.0
Current Ratio
6.6
Piotroski F
6.7
No competitive moat

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
3.3
Ma Position
6.0
Macd
7.7
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.6<4.5A.R:R 1.1 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
67 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $11.88Resistance $15.04

Price Targets

$13
$16
A.Upside+15.9%
A.R:R1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.8), Material insider selling (3 sells, 13.86% of cap)
! Momentum score 3.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-05 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SGRY stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.02: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: High short interest: 24%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 67. Prior stop was $13.05. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SGRY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $16.25 (+16.0% upside). Prior stop was $13.05. Stop-loss: $13.05.

What are the risks of investing in SGRY?

Concentration risk — Customer: private insurance payors (52.0%); Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.8), Material insider selling (3 sells, 13.86% of cap).

Is SGRY overvalued or undervalued?

Surgery Partners, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 35.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SGRY?

18 analysts cover SGRY with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $19.

What does Surgery Partners, Inc. do?Surgery Partners owns and operates 176 surgical facilities (157 ASCs, 19 surgical hospitals) in 30 states generating...

Surgery Partners owns and operates 176 surgical facilities (157 ASCs, 19 surgical hospitals) in 30 states generating ~$3.2B revenue from surgical facilities in 2025. Revenue is split ~43% government payors (Medicare/Medicaid) and ~52% private insurance.

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