Skip to main content
SGRYSurgery Partners, Inc.Sell5.5·$15.24+0.59%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Surgery Partners operates ambulatory surgery centers with 52% revenue concentration from private insurance payors and a quality score below minimum thresholds, making it a structurally risky holding despite positive short-term momentum and an attractive forward valuation.

Thesis pillars

  • Private Insurance Concentration Payor RiskStable
  • Quality Below Minimum ThresholdStable
  • High Short Interest Elevated Put CallStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Surgery Partners, Inc. (SGRY) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5ValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.24: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 23%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Surgery Partners owns and operates 176 surgical facilities — 157 ambulatory surgery centers and 19 licensed surgical hospitals — across 30 U.S. states, generating approximately $3.2 billion in revenue in 2025. Facility fees from surgical procedures fund nearly all patient... Read more

$15.24+5.2% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#21 of 36 Medical Care Facilities
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield10.05%
Stop $14.25Target $16.02(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.5:1
Analyst target$18.41+20.8%11 analysts
$16.02our TP
$15.24price
$18.41mean
$14
$24

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.24: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 23%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-24

Recent Developments — Surgery Partners, Inc.

Generated 2026-07-25T17:22:06Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 202611d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: private insurance payors (52.0%)
Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.6), Material insider selling (3 sells, 15.67% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)23.2
Mkt Cap$2.0B
EV/EBITDA11.7
Profit Mgn-2.3%
ROE2.7%
Rev Growth4.5%
Beta1.89
DividendNone
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV63%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomergovernment payors43%
    10-K Item 1A: 'We derived approximately 43%, 41% and 42% of our revenue from government payors, including Medicare and Medicaid programs in 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively.'
  • HIGHCustomerprivate insurance payors52%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Payments from private insurance payors...represented approximately 52%...of our patient service revenue in 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Volatile — 5.3% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Short Interest
0.0
Days To Cover
0.0
Volatility
0.0
Implied Vol
2.8
Beta
3.7
Debt Equity
4.7
Put Call
6.7
High short interest: 23%High IV: 63%Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)

Unprofitable operations — net margin -2.3%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Net Margin
0.0
Gross Margin
0.6
Roe
0.9
Roa
2.5
Moat
3.8
Operating Margin
4.1
Current Ratio
6.6
Piotroski F
6.7
No competitive moat

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
2.1
Ma Position
3.0
Rsi
3.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.7<4.5A.R:R 0.5 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 11d<=14d (soft)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
35 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $14.69Resistance $17.44

Price Targets

$14
$16
A.Upside+5.2%
A.R:R0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.6), Material insider selling (3 sells, 15.67% of cap)
! momentum at 3.7 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (11d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SGRY stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.24: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 23%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $14.25. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SGRY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $16.02 (+5.2% upside). Prior stop was $14.25. Stop-loss: $14.25.

What are the risks of investing in SGRY?

Concentration risk — Customer: private insurance payors (52.0%); Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.6), Material insider selling (3 sells, 15.67% of cap).

Is SGRY overvalued or undervalued?

Surgery Partners, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 23.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SGRY?

18 analysts cover SGRY with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $18.

What does Surgery Partners, Inc. do?Surgery Partners owns and operates 176 surgical facilities — 157 ambulatory surgery centers and 19 licensed surgical...

Surgery Partners owns and operates 176 surgical facilities — 157 ambulatory surgery centers and 19 licensed surgical hospitals — across 30 U.S. states, generating approximately $3.2 billion in revenue in 2025. Facility fees from surgical procedures fund nearly all patient service revenue, split 52.3% from private insurance and 42.8% from government payors (Medicare/Medicaid).

Related stocks: NUTX (Nutex Health Inc.) · SRTA (Strata Critical Medical, Inc.) · THC (Tenet Healthcare Corporation) · TOI (The Oncology Institute, Inc.) · ARDT (Ardent Health, Inc.)
Home Stocks SGRY

Latest news

Latest News

Benzinga81d agoEarnings
Benzinga81d agoEarnings
Benzinga81d ago
Benzinga81d agoEarnings