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Surgery Partners, Inc. (SGRY) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.02: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 24%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.

Surgery Partners operates 176 surgical facilities (157 ASCs and 19 surgical hospitals) in 30 states, generating ~$3.2B in patient service revenue in 2025 from non-emergency outpatient procedures across orthopedics, ophthalmology, GI, and general surgery. Revenue is collected... Read more

$14.02+11.7% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#22 of 27 Medical Care Facilities
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield10.91%
Stop $13.01Target $15.62(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.2:1
Analyst target$17.95+28.1%11 analysts
$15.62our TP
$14.02price
$17.95mean
$24

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.02: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 24%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Surgery Partners, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: private insurance payors (52.0%)
Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.6), Material insider selling (5 sells, 27.34% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)22.8
Mkt Cap$1.8B
EV/EBITDA11.4
Profit Mgn-2.3%
ROE2.7%
Rev Growth4.5%
Beta1.99
DividendNone
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomergovernment payors (Medicare and Medicaid)43%
    10-K Item 1A: 'We derived approximately 43%, 41% and 42% of our revenue from government payors, including Medicare and Medicaid programs in 2025'
  • HIGHCustomerprivate insurance payors52%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Payments from private insurance payors, including state workers' compensation programs and managed care organizations, represented approximately 52%, 54% and 53% of our patient service revenue in 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Volatile — 5.0% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Short Interest
0.0
Days To Cover
0.0
Volatility
0.0
Beta
3.4
Debt Equity
4.7
High short interest: 24%Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3M

Unprofitable operations — net margin -2.3%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Net Margin
0.0
Gross Margin
0.6
Roe
0.9
Roa
2.5
Moat
3.8
Operating Margin
4.1
Current Ratio
6.6
Piotroski F
6.7
No competitive moat

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.0
Growth Rank
3.7
Value Rank
8.1
GatesMomentum 4.0<4.5A.R:R 1.2 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
45 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $13.39Resistance $15.17

Price Targets

$13
$16
A.Upside+11.4%
A.R:R1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.6), Material insider selling (5 sells, 27.34% of cap)
! Momentum score 4.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SGRY stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.02: Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 24%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $13.01. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SGRY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $15.62 (+11.7% upside). Prior stop was $13.01. Stop-loss: $13.01.

What are the risks of investing in SGRY?

Concentration risk — Customer: private insurance payors (52.0%); Quality below floor (3.1 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.6), Material insider selling (5 sells, 27.34% of cap).

Is SGRY overvalued or undervalued?

Surgery Partners, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 22.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SGRY?

18 analysts cover SGRY with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $18.

What does Surgery Partners, Inc. do?Surgery Partners operates 176 surgical facilities (157 ASCs and 19 surgical hospitals) in 30 states, generating ~$3.2B...

Surgery Partners operates 176 surgical facilities (157 ASCs and 19 surgical hospitals) in 30 states, generating ~$3.2B in patient service revenue in 2025 from non-emergency outpatient procedures across orthopedics, ophthalmology, GI, and general surgery. Revenue is collected from private insurance (52%) and government payors including Medicare and Medicaid (43%).

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