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SAROStandardAero, Inc.Buy Wait5.6·$27.98+3.17%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

StandardAero's consistent value ranking in the top quartile of aerospace and defense peers and 32% analyst upside suggest the market is underpricing its engine maintenance, repair, and overhaul capabilities, but a borderline quality score and heavy dependence on four OEM suppliers introduce structural fragility.

Thesis pillars

  • Oem Supplier ConcentrationImproving
  • Peer Value Ranking StrengthDeteriorating
  • Analyst Upside 32 PercentImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

StandardAero, Inc. (SARO) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthModerate Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Wait for pullback to $26.75. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $27.98. Engine's entry $26.75 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: four largest OEM parts suppliers; Negative momentum.

StandardAero provides engine maintenance, repair, overhaul, and component repair for fixed and rotary wing aircraft across commercial, military, and business aviation markets, employing approximately 8,000 people in 12 countries. Military services accounted for $1,081.0 million,... Read more

$27.98+11.9% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#35 of 62 Aerospace & Defense
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield4.00%
Entry $26.75(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $24.52Target $31.21(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.5:1
Analyst target$35.88+28.2%13 analysts
$31.21our TP
$27.98price
$35.88mean
$42

Wait for pullback to $26.75. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $27.98. Engine's entry $26.75 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: four largest OEM parts suppliers; Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.70, earnings proximity 87d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Nov 10, 202687d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: four largest OEM parts suppliers
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)27.9
P/E (Fwd)15.9
Mkt Cap$9.2B
EV/EBITDA14.4
Profit Mgn5.1%
ROE12.3%
Rev Growth4.6%
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.27bullish
IV56%elevated
Max Pain$35+25.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertop four OEM customers36%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our top four OEM customers accounted for approximately 36% and 41% of our revenue, respectively'
  • HIGHSupplierfour largest OEM parts suppliers
    10-K Item 1: 'our four largest parts suppliers, which consisted of OEMs, accounted for a substantial majority of our total parts purchases'
  • LOWCustomerU.S. military end-users18%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Services to our military end-users accounted for $1,081.0 million, or 17.8%, of our revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-06-02Item 5.02MEDIUM
    CEO Russell Ford retiring effective Oct 1, 2026; succeeded by Paul McElhinney (current Lead Independent Director, 35-year industry veteran), effective Oct 1, 2026. Ford continues as Executive Chairman through Dec 31, 2026. No disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Volume
2.2
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.6%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 2.0<4.5Executive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 1.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70EARNINGS PROXIMITY 87d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
41 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $26.20Resistance $31.64

Price Targets

$25
$27
$31
A.Upside+11.9%
A.R:R1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=+1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! momentum at 2.0 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-10 (87d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SARO stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $26.75. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $27.98. Engine's entry $26.75 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: four largest OEM parts suppliers; Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $31.21 (+11.5%), stop $24.52 (−14.1%), A.R:R 1.5:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SARO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $31.21 (+11.9% upside). Target $31.21 (+11.5%), stop $24.52 (−14.1%), A.R:R 1.5:1. Stop-loss: $24.52.

What are the risks of investing in SARO?

Concentration risk — Supplier: four largest OEM parts suppliers; Negative momentum.

Is SARO overvalued or undervalued?

StandardAero, Inc. trades at a P/E of 27.9 (forward 15.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about SARO?

20 analysts cover SARO with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $36.

What does StandardAero, Inc. do?StandardAero provides engine maintenance, repair, overhaul, and component repair for fixed and rotary wing aircraft...

StandardAero provides engine maintenance, repair, overhaul, and component repair for fixed and rotary wing aircraft across commercial, military, and business aviation markets, employing approximately 8,000 people in 12 countries. Military services accounted for $1,081.0 million, or 17.8%, of 2025 revenue; approximately 80% of total revenue is derived from customers under long-term agreements.

Related stocks: FTAI (FTAI Aviation Ltd.) · MOG-B (Moog Inc.) · HEI (Heico Corporation) · VSEC (VSE Corporation) · EMBJ (Embraer S.A.)
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