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SAROStandardAero, Inc.Sell5.5·$24.81+0.69%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

StandardAero's consistent value ranking in the top quartile of aerospace and defense peers and 32% analyst upside suggest the market is underpricing its engine maintenance, repair, and overhaul capabilities, but a borderline quality score and heavy dependence on four OEM suppliers introduce structural fragility.

Thesis pillars

  • Oem Supplier ConcentrationDeteriorating
  • Peer Value Ranking StrengthStable
  • Analyst Upside 32 PercentImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

StandardAero, Inc. (SARO) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthModerate Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $24.81 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: four largest OEM parts suppliers; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5).

StandardAero provides engine maintenance, repair, overhaul, and component repair for fixed and rotary wing aircraft across commercial, military, and business aviation markets, employing approximately 8,000 people in 12 countries. Military services accounted for $1,081.0 million,... Read more

$24.81+25.6% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#40 of 66 Aerospace & Defense
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield4.50%
Stop $23.29Target $31.16(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 4.2:1
Analyst target$35.81+44.4%14 analysts
$31.16our TP
$24.81price
$35.81mean
$42

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $24.81 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: four largest OEM parts suppliers; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 25, MACD bearish. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 66d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-05
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Nov 10, 202666d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 26%
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: four largest OEM parts suppliers
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5)
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)25.6
P/E (Fwd)14.1
Mkt Cap$8.2B
EV/EBITDA13.3
Profit Mgn5.1%
ROE12.3%
Rev Growth4.6%
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV44%normal
Max Pain$25+0.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertop four OEM customers36%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our top four OEM customers accounted for approximately 36% and 41% of our revenue, respectively'
  • HIGHSupplierfour largest OEM parts suppliers
    10-K Item 1: 'our four largest parts suppliers, which consisted of OEMs, accounted for a substantial majority of our total parts purchases'
  • LOWCustomerU.S. military end-users18%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Services to our military end-users accounted for $1,081.0 million, or 17.8%, of our revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-06-02Item 5.02MEDIUM
    CEO Russell Ford retiring effective Oct 1, 2026; succeeded by Paul McElhinney (current Lead Independent Director, 35-year industry veteran), effective Oct 1, 2026. Ford continues as Executive Chairman through Dec 31, 2026. No disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.5
Volume
1.5
Macd
2.4
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 25, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
GatesMomentum 1.9<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 4.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 66d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
25 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $23.86Resistance $30.00

Price Targets

$23
$31
A.Upside+25.6%
A.R:R4.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 1.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-10 (66d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SARO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $24.81 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: four largest OEM parts suppliers; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 25, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $23.29. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SARO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $31.16 (+25.6% upside). Prior stop was $23.29. Stop-loss: $23.29.

What are the risks of investing in SARO?

Concentration risk — Supplier: four largest OEM parts suppliers; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Is SARO overvalued or undervalued?

StandardAero, Inc. trades at a P/E of 25.6 (forward 14.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SARO?

20 analysts cover SARO with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $36.

What does StandardAero, Inc. do?StandardAero provides engine maintenance, repair, overhaul, and component repair for fixed and rotary wing aircraft...

StandardAero provides engine maintenance, repair, overhaul, and component repair for fixed and rotary wing aircraft across commercial, military, and business aviation markets, employing approximately 8,000 people in 12 countries. Military services accounted for $1,081.0 million, or 17.8%, of 2025 revenue; approximately 80% of total revenue is derived from customers under long-term agreements.

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