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StandardAero, Inc. (SARO) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $25.27: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 2.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

StandardAero is the largest independent aerospace engine aftermarket services provider, offering maintenance, repair, overhaul, and component repair for commercial, military, and business aviation globally with approximately 8,000 employees. Revenue is earned under... Read more

$25.27+24.2% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#24 of 47 Aerospace & Defense
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield1.10%
Stop $23.39Target $31.23(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.9:1
Analyst target$35.89+42.0%14 analysts
$31.23our TP
$25.27price
$35.89mean
$42

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $25.27: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 2.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 54. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 84d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — StandardAero, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: four largest parts suppliers (OEMs)
Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-6.7% YoY), High leverage (D/E 2.6)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)28.6
P/E (Fwd)14.5
Mkt Cap$8.4B
EV/EBITDA14.2
Profit Mgn4.7%
ROE11.5%
Rev Growth13.3%
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.22bullish
IV54%elevated
Max Pain$23-11.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertop four OEM customers36%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our top four OEM customers accounted for approximately 36% and 41% of our revenue, respectively'
  • HIGHSupplierfour largest parts suppliers (OEMs)
    10-K Item 1: 'our four largest parts suppliers, which consisted of OEMs, accounted for a substantial majority of our total parts purchases'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.9
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
4.5
Macd
7.4
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
2.4
Fcf Quality
2.5
Operating Margin
3.5
Roa
3.6
Roe
3.8
Moat
4.9
Piotroski F
6.7
Current Ratio
7.4
Earnings quality RED FLAG: 31% FCF/NINo competitive moat
GatesMomentum 3.0<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 84d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
54 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $23.83Resistance $27.20

Price Targets

$23
$31
A.Upside+23.6%
A.R:R2.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-6.7% YoY), High leverage (D/E 2.6)
! Momentum score 3.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-12 (84d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SARO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $25.27: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 2.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 54. Prior stop was $23.39. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SARO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $31.23 (+24.2% upside). Prior stop was $23.39. Stop-loss: $23.39.

What are the risks of investing in SARO?

Concentration risk — Supplier: four largest parts suppliers (OEMs); Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-6.7% YoY), High leverage (D/E 2.6).

Is SARO overvalued or undervalued?

StandardAero, Inc. trades at a P/E of 28.6 (forward 14.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SARO?

20 analysts cover SARO with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $36.

What does StandardAero, Inc. do?StandardAero is the largest independent aerospace engine aftermarket services provider, offering maintenance, repair,...

StandardAero is the largest independent aerospace engine aftermarket services provider, offering maintenance, repair, overhaul, and component repair for commercial, military, and business aviation globally with approximately 8,000 employees. Revenue is earned under time-and-materials, fixed-price-per-event, and long-term contracts; approximately 80% of revenue is derived from customers under long-term agreements.

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