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ROSTRoss Stores, Inc.Hold6.3·$230.69-0.42%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Ross Stores is an off-price apparel retailer with a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak, 39% return on equity, and 21% year-over-year earnings growth, currently trading at full value with essentially zero near-term upside to analyst resistance targets following a strong price run.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Earnings Growth 21 Pct
  • Perfect Earnings Beat Streak Off PriceDeteriorating
  • Industry Leading Return On EquityDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST) Stock Analysis

HoldGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Retail

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $230.69, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 5.3%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Ross Stores, Inc. and its subsidiaries ("we", "our", or the "Company") operate two brands of off-price retail apparel and home fashion stores-Ross Dress for Less® ("Ross") and dd's DISCOUNTS®.

$230.69+5.3% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#2 of 17 Apparel Retail
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield2.71%
IncomeYield0.77%(5y avg 1.04%)Payout20.56%sustainable
Stop $218.23Target $242.95(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.0:1
Analyst target$269.94+17.0%18 analysts
$242.95our TP
$230.69price
$269.94mean
$176
$310

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $230.69, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 5.3%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 75d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-05
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 19, 202675d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Thin upside margin: 5.3%
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)27.9
P/E (Fwd)25.8
Mkt Cap$74.0B
EV/EBITDA20.3
Profit Mgn10.8%
ROE42.6%
Rev Growth13.3%
Beta0.86
Dividend0.77%
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.68bullish
IV36%normal
Max Pain$240+4.0% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5A.R:R 1.0 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 75d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
44 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $224.50Resistance $256.45

Price Targets

$218
$243
A.Upside+5.3%
A.R:R1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! News modifier +2: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! momentum at 3.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 1.0 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-19 (75d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ROST stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $230.69, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 5.3%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $242.95 (+5.3%), stop $218.23 (−5.7%), A.R:R 1.0:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ROST stock price target?

Take-profit target: $242.95 (+5.3% upside). Target $242.95 (+5.3%), stop $218.23 (−5.7%), A.R:R 1.0:1. Stop-loss: $218.23.

What are the risks of investing in ROST?

Thin upside margin: 5.3%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Negative momentum.

Is ROST overvalued or undervalued?

Ross Stores, Inc. trades at a P/E of 27.9 (forward 25.8). TrendMatrix value score: 4.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about ROST?

27 analysts cover ROST with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $270.

What does Ross Stores, Inc. do?Ross Stores, Inc. and its subsidiaries ("we", "our", or the "Company") operate two brands of off-price retail apparel...

Ross Stores, Inc. and its subsidiaries ("we", "our", or the "Company") operate two brands of off-price retail apparel and home fashion stores-Ross Dress for Less® ("Ross") and dd's DISCOUNTS®.

Related stocks: GAP (Gap, Inc. (The)) · LULU (lululemon athletica inc.) · BURL (Burlington Stores, Inc.) · TJX (TJX Companies, Inc. (The))
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