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ROSTRoss Stores, Inc.Buy Wait6.1·$245.36+0.16%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Ross Stores is an off-price apparel retailer with a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak, 39% return on equity, and 21% year-over-year earnings growth, currently trading at full value with essentially zero near-term upside to analyst resistance targets following a strong price run.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Earnings Growth 21 Pct
  • Perfect Earnings Beat Streak Off PriceDeteriorating
  • Industry Leading Return On EquityStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

Buy WaitGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Retail

Earnings in 4 days (2026-08-20). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $234.00. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $245.36. Engine's entry $234.00 (50-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.5% away).

Ross Stores, Inc. and its subsidiaries ("we", "our", or the "Company") operate two brands of off-price retail apparel and home fashion stores-Ross Dress for Less® ("Ross") and dd's DISCOUNTS®.

$245.36-6.3% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#3 of 18 Apparel Retail
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield2.60%
IncomeYield0.73%(5y avg 1.04%)Payout23.18%sustainable
Entry $234.00(50-day MA)Stop $224.48Target $251.86(resistance)A.R:R -1.0:1
Analyst target$255.44+4.1%18 analysts
$251.86our TP
$245.36price
$255.44mean
$176
$290

Wait for pullback to $234.00. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $245.36. Engine's entry $234.00 (50-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.5% away). Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-16
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 20, 20264d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+1.00)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (4.5% away)
Earnings in 4 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)34.3
P/E (Fwd)28.7
Mkt Cap$78.7B
EV/EBITDA23.1
Profit Mgn9.7%
ROE39.0%
Rev Growth20.6%
Beta0.88
Dividend0.73%
Rating analysts26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV57%elevated
Max Pain$300+22.3% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
2.8
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R -1.0=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 4d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $230.14Resistance $257.00

Price Targets

$224
$234
$252
A.Upside-6.3%
A.R:R-1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.3% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! momentum at 3.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-20 (4d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ROST stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $234.00. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $245.36. Engine's entry $234.00 (50-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.5% away). Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $251.86 (+2.6%), stop $224.48 (−9.3%), A.R:R -1.0:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ROST stock price target?

Take-profit target: $251.86 (-6.3% upside). Target $251.86 (+2.6%), stop $224.48 (−9.3%), A.R:R -1.0:1. Stop-loss: $224.48.

What are the risks of investing in ROST?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.5% away); Earnings in 4 days (event risk).

Is ROST overvalued or undervalued?

Ross Stores, Inc. trades at a P/E of 34.3 (forward 28.7). TrendMatrix value score: 4.0/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about ROST?

26 analysts cover ROST with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $255.

What does Ross Stores, Inc. do?Ross Stores, Inc. and its subsidiaries ("we", "our", or the "Company") operate two brands of off-price retail apparel...

Ross Stores, Inc. and its subsidiaries ("we", "our", or the "Company") operate two brands of off-price retail apparel and home fashion stores-Ross Dress for Less® ("Ross") and dd's DISCOUNTS®.

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