Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical is a rare disease biotech with analyst consensus implying 84.6% upside and a recovery-phase technical setup, but a cash burn rate of -33% of revenue, 3 consecutive earnings misses averaging -13.5% negative surprise, and a quality score of 2.4 out of 10 make the risk profile highly asymmetric with significant downside probability.
Thesis pillars
- Massive Analyst Upside Consensus↑Improving
- Consecutive Earnings Misses↓Deteriorating
- Single Source Supplier Risk→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Healthcare · Biotechnology
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $26.80: Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.3/10 and A.R:R 7.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.35; Below-average business quality.
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical develops treatments for rare and ultra-rare genetic diseases, with four approved products — Crysvita (XLH/TIO), Mepsevii (MPS VII), Dojolvi (LC-FAOD), and Evkeeza (HoFH) — sold in North America, Europe, and select international markets. Revenue is... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $26.80: Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.3/10 and A.R:R 7.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.35; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.70, earnings proximity 81d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-15Recent Developments — Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical And Baylor Research Institute Reach Settlement Agreement With Esjay Pharma To Resolve Patent L — benzinga Aug 11, 2026 positive
- NEWS HC Wainwright & Co. Reiterates Buy on Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical, Maintains $50 Price Target — benzinga Aug 10, 2026 positive
- NEWS Wells Fargo Maintains Overweight on Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical, Lowers Price Target to $45 — benzinga Aug 5, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Affirms FY2026 Sales Guidance of $730.000M-$760.000M vs $746.958M Est — benzinga Aug 4, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Q2 EPS $(0.90) Beats $(1.51) Estimate, Sales $214.000M Beat $158.777M Estimate — benzinga Aug 4, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-08-15T11:32:25Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMcounterpartyKKC10-K Item 1A: 'We are dependent on KKC for the supply and commercialization of Crysvita in certain major markets'
- HIGHSuppliersingle-source suppliers10-K Item 1A: 'The failure to supply by any of our single-source suppliers could adversely affect our business'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-18Item 5.02LOWStockholders approved Third Amended and Restated 2023 Incentive Plan at Ultragenyx May 14, 2026 Annual Meeting. No director departures or officer changes. Class I directors Emil Kakkis and Shehnaaz Suliman re-elected.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·3 ceiling hits
Clinical-stage biotech: losses expected pre-commercialisation. Quality floor doesn't distinguish R&D investment from operational decay — components above tell the real story.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $26.80: Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.3/10 and A.R:R 7.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.35; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $24.64. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $47.56 (+79.5% upside). Prior stop was $24.64. Stop-loss: $24.64.
Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source suppliers; Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0).
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 10.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
25 analysts cover RARE with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $53.
What does Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. do?Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical develops treatments for rare and ultra-rare genetic diseases, with four approved products —...
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical develops treatments for rare and ultra-rare genetic diseases, with four approved products — Crysvita (XLH/TIO), Mepsevii (MPS VII), Dojolvi (LC-FAOD), and Evkeeza (HoFH) — sold in North America, Europe, and select international markets. Revenue is generated from product sales and royalties, with $737 million in cash at year-end 2025; near-term pipeline includes DTX401 with PDUFA expected in Q3 2026.