Value
8.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 7.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.06
- ▸Attractively valued
RARE · Why this verdict
Why Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical is a rare disease biotech with analyst consensus implying 84.6% upside and a recovery-phase technical setup, but a cash burn rate of -33% of revenue, 3 consecutive earnings misses averaging -13.5% negative surprise, and a quality score of 2.4 out of 10 make the risk profile highly asymmetric with significant downside probability.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The analyst consensus price target of $46.85 against a current price of $25.38 implies 84.6% upside, with an average analyst rating of 8.94 out of 10 — one of the highest conviction scores in the data — and a perfect 10 out of 10 sentiment score, suggesting broad institutional optimism about the pipeline. Sentiment breakdown | The stock price rises above $35 within 12 months as clinical and commercial milestones validate the analyst consensus. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterThree consecutive earnings misses averaging -13.5% negative surprise, with the worst miss at -49.7% in November 2025, indicate the company is falling consistently short of already-lowered expectations, calling into question the reliability of the consensus target. | ||
Ultragenyx has missed earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including a -49.7% miss when it reported -$1.81 against a -$1.21 estimate in November 2025, signaling that operational or clinical costs are consistently exceeding analyst models. Earnings | The company returns to earnings beats in at least 2 of the next 3 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter showed a -5.7% miss, which is far less severe than the November 2025 debacle, potentially signaling that the worst quarter-to-quarter variability is behind the company. | ||
As disclosed in the 10-K, the company relies on single-source suppliers for key manufacturing materials, creating a supply chain vulnerability where any disruption could halt production of approved therapies and halt the revenue ramp needed to reduce cash burn. Bear case | The company qualifies at least 1 alternative supplier for critical manufacturing inputs within the next 18 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRare disease therapies often require specialized manufacturing partners with unique capabilities, making single-source supplier relationships structurally unavoidable in the short term. | ||
Despite the downtrend, the stock is above its 200-day moving average with rising on-balance volume and an improving MACD, creating a recovery technical setup with an asymmetry ratio of 5.6 and a reward-to-risk ratio of 12.09 that implies exceptional risk-adjusted upside if the thesis plays out. Momentum breakdown | The stock price rises above $35 while maintaining its position above the 200-day moving average for at least 10 consecutive weeks. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe 200-day moving average is declining at -2.3% per 30 days, and a stock can trade above a declining moving average temporarily before the moving average catch-up brings a technical breakdown. | ||
The analyst consensus price target of $46.85 against a current price of $25.38 implies 84.6% upside, with an average analyst rating of 8.94 out of 10 — one of the highest conviction scores in the data — and a perfect 10 out of 10 sentiment score, suggesting broad institutional optimism about the pipeline.
Tripped→StableSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock price rises above $35 within 12 months as clinical and commercial milestones validate the analyst consensus.
CounterThree consecutive earnings misses averaging -13.5% negative surprise, with the worst miss at -49.7% in November 2025, indicate the company is falling consistently short of already-lowered expectations, calling into question the reliability of the consensus target.
Ultragenyx has missed earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including a -49.7% miss when it reported -$1.81 against a -$1.21 estimate in November 2025, signaling that operational or clinical costs are consistently exceeding analyst models.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company returns to earnings beats in at least 2 of the next 3 quarters.
CounterThe most recent quarter showed a -5.7% miss, which is far less severe than the November 2025 debacle, potentially signaling that the worst quarter-to-quarter variability is behind the company.
As disclosed in the 10-K, the company relies on single-source suppliers for key manufacturing materials, creating a supply chain vulnerability where any disruption could halt production of approved therapies and halt the revenue ramp needed to reduce cash burn.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- The company qualifies at least 1 alternative supplier for critical manufacturing inputs within the next 18 months.
CounterRare disease therapies often require specialized manufacturing partners with unique capabilities, making single-source supplier relationships structurally unavoidable in the short term.
Despite the downtrend, the stock is above its 200-day moving average with rising on-balance volume and an improving MACD, creating a recovery technical setup with an asymmetry ratio of 5.6 and a reward-to-risk ratio of 12.09 that implies exceptional risk-adjusted upside if the thesis plays out.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock price rises above $35 while maintaining its position above the 200-day moving average for at least 10 consecutive weeks.
CounterThe 200-day moving average is declining at -2.3% per 30 days, and a stock can trade above a declining moving average temporarily before the moving average catch-up brings a technical breakdown.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.4/10data confidence 86%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.1 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 3.8 |
| Piotroski F | 3.3 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -33% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
6.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -2%
Momentum
1.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 20, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA (recent, shallow — too early to call)
Sentiment
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 8.9 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 98%
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $632,482 (0.024% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.2 |
| quality rank | 0.3 |
| growth rank | 3.5 |
Technical
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.2 |
| support resistance | 9.6 |
| 52w position | 2.7 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.8 |
| days to cover | 5.2 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.8 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 17%
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.88
- ▸High IV: 111%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Earnings in 11 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:6.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:1.2<4.5
Warning (2)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:11d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
6.58
Upside
+78.6%
Downside
11.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Biotechnology
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 1.2<4.5 outcome against Value at 8.7 and asymmetric R:R of 6.58.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.7, Sentiment at 8.2, and Technical at 6.6; the weakest are Momentum at 1.2, Quality at 2.4, and Catalyst at 2.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 6.58 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Massive Analyst Upside ConsensusTripped
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target declines below $35, reducing implied upside to less than 40%.
- P2Consecutive Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -30% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P3Single Source Supplier Risk
Trip ifA key supplier terminates its agreement, causing a production delay of more than 3 months.
- P4Recovery Setup Above 200ma
Trip ifThe stock price falls below its 200-day moving average and remains below for more than 15 consecutive trading days.