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Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $23.24: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10 and A.R:R 9.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.79; Below-average business quality.

Ultragenyx is a late-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on rare genetic diseases, with four approved therapies (Crysvita for XLH/TIO, Mepsevii for MPS VII, Dojolvi for LC-FAOD, Evkeeza for HoFH) and multiple Phase 3 pipeline programs. Revenue comes from product sales and... Read more

$23.24+99.8% A.UpsideScore 4.6/10#117 of 157 Biotechnology
QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield-9.91%
Stop $21.59Target $46.37(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 9.7:1
Analyst target$51.53+121.7%19 analysts
$46.37our TP
$23.24price
$51.53mean
$84

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $23.24: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10 and A.R:R 9.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.79; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 40, MACD bearish. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Val7.2Qual2.4Grw6.0Mom1.1Sent8.2Ins3.4Peer4.3Tech6.0Risk3.44.6OVERALL

Recent Developments — Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)64.7
Mkt Cap$2.2B
EV/EBITDA-6.0
Profit Mgn-90.9%
ROE—
Rev Growth-2.2%
Beta0.39
DividendNone
Rating analysts26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C1.79bearish
IV59%elevated
Max Pain$20-13.9% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Unprofitable operations — net margin -90.9%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roa
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
3.3
Moat
3.8
Current Ratio
7.1
Cash-burning: FCF -33% of revenueNo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9Quality concerns

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
GatesMomentum 1.1<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 9.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 76d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
40 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $22.23Resistance $27.42

Price Targets

$22
$46
A.Upside+99.5%
A.R:R9.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 1.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (76d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is RARE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $23.24: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10 and A.R:R 9.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.79; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 40, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $21.59. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the RARE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $46.37 (+99.8% upside). Prior stop was $21.59. Stop-loss: $21.59.

What are the risks of investing in RARE?

Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0).

Is RARE overvalued or undervalued?

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 64.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about RARE?

26 analysts cover RARE with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $52.

What does Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. do?Ultragenyx is a late-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on rare genetic diseases, with four approved therapies...

Ultragenyx is a late-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on rare genetic diseases, with four approved therapies (Crysvita for XLH/TIO, Mepsevii for MPS VII, Dojolvi for LC-FAOD, Evkeeza for HoFH) and multiple Phase 3 pipeline programs. Revenue comes from product sales and collaboration payments from Kyowa Kirin (KKC) and Gilead; as of December 31, 2025, available cash was $737M. The company is implementing a 10% workforce reduction (~130 employees) and ~$50M in restructuring charges in H1 2026 following UX143 Phase 3 failures.

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