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PRPermian Resources CorporationSell5.0·$18.20+1.51%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Permian Resources is an oil and gas exploration company with an attractive forward price-to-earnings of 8.9 times, a strong earnings beat streak of 3 for 3 in recent quarters, and a solid technical setup, but commodity cycle peak risk is flagged with a forward-to-trailing earnings ratio well below the cycle peak threshold, and geographic concentration in the Permian Basin ties performance entirely to one basin's economics.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Valuation Beat StreakStable
  • Permian Geographic ConcentrationStable
  • Negative Fcf High Dividend PayoutStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Permian Resources Corporation (PR) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $18.20 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 8.6× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.42× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian Basin.

Permian Resources Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, focuses on the development of crude oil and associated liquids-rich natural gas reserves in the United States. The company's assets primarily focus on the Delaware Basin, a sub-basin of the Permian Basin.... Read more

$18.20+26.5% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#35 of 48 Oil & Gas E&P
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-0.83%
IncomeYield3.41%Payout68.54%
Stop $17.36Target $23.02(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 4.4:1
Analyst target$25.58+40.5%19 analysts
$23.02our TP
$18.20price
$25.58mean
$30

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $18.20 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 8.6× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.42× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian Basin. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 32d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and materials cycle peak fwd=8.6x,ratio=0.42x. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202632d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 26%
Risks
Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 8.6× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.42× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.
Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian Basin
Concentration risk — Customer: small number of significant purchasers

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.4
P/E (Fwd)8.6
Mkt Cap$15.7B
EV/EBITDA5.3
Profit Mgn12.8%
ROE6.9%
Rev Growth0.9%
Beta0.45
Dividend3.41%
Rating analysts31

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.01bullish
IV53%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicPermian Basin
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our producing properties are concentrated in the Permian Basin, making us vulnerable to risks associated with operating in a single geographic area.'
  • HIGHCustomersmall number of significant purchasers
    10-K Item 1A: 'We depend on a small number of significant purchasers for the sale of most of our oil, natural gas and NGL production.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-19Item 5.02LOW
    Annual meeting May 19, 2026: shareholders approved First Amendment to 2023 LTIP, increasing authorized Class A shares from 71,718,560 to 101,718,560. Board had pre-approved. No director/officer departure.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-05-06Item 1.01MEDIUM
    OpCo entered new $3.0 billion senior unsecured Credit Agreement April 30, 2026, with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. as admin agent, maturing April 30, 2031, replacing prior credit facility.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-05-06Item 1.02MEDIUM
    Prior credit agreement terminated April 30, 2026, replaced by new $3.0 billion senior unsecured Credit Agreement with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. No default; clean refinancing.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-05-06Item 2.03LOW
    Creation of $3.0 billion direct financial obligation under new Credit Agreement with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. as admin agent, effective April 30, 2026, maturing April 30, 2031.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
2.7

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.6
Growth Rank
3.4
Quality Rank
4.6

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Volume
1.9
Macd
3.2
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
7.7
Uptrend pullback (RSI 38) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.6<4.5MATERIALS CYCLE PEAK fwd=8.6x,ratio=0.42xExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 4.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKEARNINGS PROXIMITY 32d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
38 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $17.90Resistance $20.07

Price Targets

$17
$23
A.Upside+26.5%
A.R:R4.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.6 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:fwd=8.6x,ratio=0.42x

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (32d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $18.20 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 8.6× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.42× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian Basin. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $17.36. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $23.02 (+26.5% upside). Prior stop was $17.36. Stop-loss: $17.36.

What are the risks of investing in PR?

Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 8.6× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.42× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian Basin; Concentration risk — Customer: small number of significant purchasers.

Is PR overvalued or undervalued?

Permian Resources Corporation trades at a P/E of 20.4 (forward 8.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PR?

31 analysts cover PR with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $26.

What does Permian Resources Corporation do?Permian Resources Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, focuses on the development of crude oil and...

Permian Resources Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, focuses on the development of crude oil and associated liquids-rich natural gas reserves in the United States. The company's assets primarily focus on the Delaware Basin, a sub-basin of the Permian Basin. Its properties consist of acreage blocks in Reeves County in West Texas and Lea County in New Mexico. The company was formerly known as Centennial Resource Development, Inc. and changed its name to Permian Resources Corporation in September 2022. The company was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Midland, Texas.

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