Philip Morris International is a high-quality defensive consumer staples company with 27% net margins, strong margins scoring 7.5/10 on quality, but has missed earnings estimates in the last 2 consecutive quarters, the stock has exceeded analyst price targets, and the negative asymmetry makes new entry unattractive at $181.81.
Thesis pillars
- High Quality Defensive Margins↑Improving
- Dividend Sustainability Concern↑Improving
- Consecutive Earnings Misses↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Philip Morris International Inc (PM) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Consumer Defensive · Tobacco
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $194.84, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.6% away).
Philip Morris International sells cigarettes and smoke-free products—including IQOS heat-not-burn, ZYN nicotine pouches, and VEEV e-vapor—in approximately 170 markets worldwide, holding a 29.2% total international market share in 2025. The company shipped 786.5 billion... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $194.84, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.6% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost earnings 0.70, news boost analyst 0.50, earnings proximity 86d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: conservative.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-27Recent Developments — Philip Morris International Inc
Latest news
- NEWS Philip Morris Stock Rises as Earnings Highlight Nicotine Pouch Rebound - Barron's — Barron's positive
- NEWS Philip Morris Q2: A Solid Quarter Isn’t Enough At This Price (NYSE:PM) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha neutral
- NEWS Philip Morris International Q2 Earnings Call Highlights - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Philip Morris International Inc Stock (PM) Moved Up by 3.31% on Jul 22: Drivers Behind the Movement - TradingKey — TradingKey positive
- NEWS Why is Philip Morris International stock surging today? - Investing.com — Investing.com positive
Generated 2026-07-27T14:48:12Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMProductMarlboro43%10-K Item 1: 'Marlboro, the world's best-selling international cigarette, which accounted for approximately 43% of our total 2025 cigarette shipment volume'
- LOWGeographicRussia6.0%10-K Item 1A: 'Russia accounted for around 9% of our total cigarette and heated tobacco unit shipment volume, and around 6% of our total net revenues'
- LOWCustomerdistributor in the Europe Region10-K Item 1: 'sales to a distributor in the Europe Region and a distributor in the EA, AU & PMI GTR Region each amounted to 10 percent or more of our consolidated net revenues'
- LOWCustomerdistributor in the EA, AU & PMI GTR Region10-K Item 1: 'sales to a distributor in the Europe Region and a distributor in the EA, AU & PMI GTR Region each amounted to 10 percent or more of our consolidated net revenues'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $194.84, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.6% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $195.78 (+0.5%), stop $183.38 (−6.2%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $195.78 (-7.2% upside). Target $195.78 (+0.5%), stop $183.38 (−6.2%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Stop-loss: $183.38.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.6% away); Weak growth.
Philip Morris International Inc trades at a P/E of 212.1 (forward 21.1). TrendMatrix value score: 4.2/10. Verdict: Hold.
26 analysts cover PM with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $201.
What does Philip Morris International Inc do?Philip Morris International sells cigarettes and smoke-free products—including IQOS heat-not-burn, ZYN nicotine...
Philip Morris International sells cigarettes and smoke-free products—including IQOS heat-not-burn, ZYN nicotine pouches, and VEEV e-vapor—in approximately 170 markets worldwide, holding a 29.2% total international market share in 2025. The company shipped 786.5 billion equivalent units in fiscal 2025, with Marlboro accounting for approximately 43% of cigarette shipment volume; approximately 84,900 employees worldwide.