Skip to main content
BTIBritish American Tobacco IndusBuy Wait5.3·$55.35-1.11%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Strong 30% margins and three earnings beats in the last four periods reflect genuine franchise quality, but near-stagnant revenue growth and a free cash flow conversion rate covering only 39% of net income raise questions about dividend sustainability — with just 7% headroom to the price target, the setup favors patience over adding exposure.

Thesis pillars

  • Oversold Pullback In Established UptrendStable
  • Margin Quality And Earnings ConsistencyStable
  • Near Stagnant Revenue GrowthStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

British American Tobacco Indus (BTI) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Tobacco

Wait for pullback to $54.74. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $55.35. Engine's entry $54.74 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Weak growth; Negative momentum.

British American Tobacco p.l.c. provides tobacco and nicotine products to consumers in the United States, Europe, Latin America, Canada, the Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, Central Asia, Caucasus, and Africa. The company offers vapour products; heated products, which consists of... Read more

$55.35+10.3% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#4 of 7 Tobacco
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield2.96%
IncomeYield5.97%(5y avg 7.37%)Payout84.51%at-risk
Entry $54.74(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $52.97Target $61.07(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.1:1
Analyst target$70.20+26.8%6 analysts
$61.07our TP
$55.35price
$70.20mean
$75

Wait for pullback to $54.74. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $55.35. Engine's entry $54.74 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Weak growth; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 158d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-05
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Feb 10, 2027158d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Consumer Defensive): +0.8
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Earnings estimates trending UP
Risks
Weak growth
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.2
P/E (Fwd)10.6
Mkt Cap$119.2B
EV/EBITDA56.4
Profit Mgn25.0%
ROE13.4%
Rev Growth1.4%
Beta0.11
Dividend5.97%
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.47bearish
IV51%elevated
Max Pain$75+35.5% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
2.8

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Volume
2.9
Rsi
4.5
Macd
6.7
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.9%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 3.5<4.5A.R:R 2.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 158d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
47 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $55.21Resistance $58.16

Price Targets

$53
$55
$61
A.Upside+10.3%
A.R:R2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %1%
Max %2.1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! News modifier +1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! momentum at 3.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2027-02-10 (158d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BTI stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $54.74. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $55.35. Engine's entry $54.74 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Weak growth; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $61.07 (+10.3%), stop $52.97 (−4.5%), A.R:R 2.1:1. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BTI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $61.07 (+10.3% upside). Target $61.07 (+10.3%), stop $52.97 (−4.5%), A.R:R 2.1:1. Stop-loss: $52.97.

What are the risks of investing in BTI?

Weak growth; Negative momentum.

Is BTI overvalued or undervalued?

British American Tobacco Indus trades at a P/E of 14.2 (forward 10.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about BTI?

20 analysts cover BTI with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $70.

What does British American Tobacco Indus do?British American Tobacco p.l.c. provides tobacco and nicotine products to consumers in the United States, Europe, Latin...

British American Tobacco p.l.c. provides tobacco and nicotine products to consumers in the United States, Europe, Latin America, Canada, the Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, Central Asia, Caucasus, and Africa. The company offers vapour products; heated products, which consists of a battery-powered device and a plant-based substance consumable that is heated; modern oral products, such as nicotine pouches; combustibles, including cigarette sticks and other tobacco stick products; traditional oral products, such as snus and moist snuff; and fine cut/roll-your-own tobacco products. It sells its products under the Vuse, glo, Velo, Grizzly, Kodiak, Dunhill, Kent, Lucky Strike, Pall Mall, Rothmans, Newport, Natural American Spirit, and Camel Snus brands, as well as Vogue, Viceroy, Kool, Peter Stuyvesant, Craven A, and State Express 555 brands. The company distributes its products to retail outlets. British American Tobacco p.l.c. was founded in 1902 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

Related stocks: MO (Altria Group, Inc.) · PM (Philip Morris International Inc) · BUD (Anheuser-Busch Inbev SA Sponsor) · ABEV (Ambev S.A.) · COKE (Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc.)
Home Stocks BTI

Latest news

Latest News

GuruFocus38d ago
MarketBeat39d ago
Insider Monkey101d agoProduct
Seeking Alpha115d ago
AD HOC NEWS115d ago
AD HOC NEWS115d ago
Seeking Alpha3d ago
Stocktwits39d agoRestructuring
AD HOC NEWS109d agoProduct
GuruFocus116d ago
Moomoo116d ago
Moneyweb4d ago
FXLeaders37d agoEarnings
TradingView37d agoEarnings
Scanx.trade38d agoEarnings
TMX Newsfile100d agoMerger Acquisition
AD HOC NEWS100d ago
GuruFocus44d ago
Quiver Quantitative44d ago
MarketBeat45d agoEarnings
Loading more...