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ABEVAmbev S.A.Hold5.6·$2.76
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Ambev is a high-quality, defensive brewer with strong cash conversion and a 5.1% dividend, but growth is weak, momentum is in a downtrend and upside to the analyst target is thin.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Cash Generating Brewer→Stable
  • Dividend And Bearish Sentiment→Stable
  • Weak Growth Profile↓Deteriorating
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Nov 1, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Ambev S.A. (ABEV) Stock Analysis

HoldValueQualityModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Brewers

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $2.76, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth.

Ambev S.A., through its subsidiaries, engages in the production, distribution, and sale of beer, draft beer, soft drinks, malt and food, and other beverages in Brazil, Central America and Caribbean, Latin America South, and Canada. The company offers beer, ready-to-drink... Read more

$2.76+0.7% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#4 of 8 Beverages - Brewers
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield49.49%
IncomeYield4.91%(5y avg 4.19%)Payout74.21%
Stop $2.57Analyst target $2.78(−13% haircut)A.R:R 0.1:1
Analyst consensus$3.20+15.8%10 analysts with price targets
$2.78Analyst target
$2.76price
$3.20mean
$4

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $2.76, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 98d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated Oct 29, 2026

Recent Developments — Ambev S.A.

Latest news

Latest item Oct 29, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:49:08Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Feb 11, 202798d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.4 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Consumer Defensive): +0.8
High-quality business
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Weak growth
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.5
P/E (Fwd)13.3
Mkt Cap$42.5B
EV/EBITDA0.9
Profit Mgn17.7%
ROE17.7%
Rev Growth3.6%
Beta0.22
Dividend4.91%
Analysts with ratings20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV86%elevated
Max Pain$3-9.4% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.1
Revenue Growth
3.4

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Volume
1.9
Ma Position
2.2
Macd
2.8
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 29, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+3.0%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 2.2<4.5A.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 98d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
29 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $2.62Resistance $3.35

Price Targets

$3
$3
A.Upside+0.7%
A.R:R0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (0.7% upside)
! momentum at 2.2 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.1 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2027-02-11 (98d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ABEV stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $2.76, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Analyst target $2.78 (+0.7%), stop $2.57 (−7.4%), A.R:R 0.1:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ABEV stock price target?

Analyst target: $2.78 (+0.7% upside). Analyst target $2.78 (+0.7%), stop $2.57 (−7.4%), A.R:R 0.1:1. Stop-loss: $2.57.

What are the risks of investing in ABEV?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth; Negative momentum.

Is ABEV overvalued or undervalued?

Ambev S.A. trades at a P/E of 14.5 (forward 13.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about ABEV?

20 analysts rate ABEV, with a consensus score of 2.5/5. 10 analysts publish price targets averaging $3.

What does Ambev S.A. do?Ambev S.A., through its subsidiaries, engages in the production, distribution, and sale of beer, draft beer, soft...

Ambev S.A., through its subsidiaries, engages in the production, distribution, and sale of beer, draft beer, soft drinks, malt and food, and other beverages in Brazil, Central America and Caribbean, Latin America South, and Canada. The company offers beer, ready-to-drink cocktails and spritzers, soft drinks, water, teas, and isotonic drinks under the Brahma, Skol, Antarctica, Original, Quilmes, Andes Origen, Patricia, Paceha, Huari, Pilsen, Presidente, Balboa, Guaraná Antarctica, and Beats brands. It sells its products to distributors, supermarkets, and retailers within a broad distribution network. The company was founded in 1853 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil. Ambev S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Interbrew International B.V.

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