Philip Morris International is a high-quality defensive consumer staples company with 27% net margins, strong margins scoring 7.5/10 on quality, but has missed earnings estimates in the last 2 consecutive quarters, the stock has exceeded analyst price targets, and the negative asymmetry makes new entry unattractive at $181.81.
Thesis pillars
- High Quality Defensive Margins→Stable
- Dividend Sustainability Concern→Stable
- Consecutive Earnings Misses→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Philip Morris International Inc (PM) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup · Temporary headwind edge
Consumer Defensive · Tobacco
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $189.57 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Weak growth.
Philip Morris International sells cigarettes and smoke-free products—including IQOS heat-not-burn, ZYN nicotine pouches, and VEEV e-vapor—in approximately 170 markets worldwide, holding a 29.2% total international market share in 2025. The company shipped 786.5 billion... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $189.57 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Weak growth. Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 74d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: conservative.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-09Recent Developments — Philip Morris International Inc
Latest news
- NEWS PM Stock Quote Price and Forecast - CNN — CNN neutral
- NEWS Opal Capital LLC Grows Stock Position in Philip Morris International Inc. $PM - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Philip Morris International (NYSE:PM) Hits New 12-Month High - What's Next? - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS Why Did AAPL, KO, PM Stocks Jump To 52-Week Highs Today? - Stocktwits — Stocktwits positive
- NEWS Philip Morris Stock Rises as Earnings Highlight Nicotine Pouch Rebound - Barron's — Barron's positive
Generated 2026-08-09T07:42:10Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMProductMarlboro43%10-K Item 1: 'Marlboro, the world's best-selling international cigarette, which accounted for approximately 43% of our total 2025 cigarette shipment volume'
- LOWGeographicRussia6.0%10-K Item 1A: 'Russia accounted for around 9% of our total cigarette and heated tobacco unit shipment volume, and around 6% of our total net revenues'
- LOWCustomerdistributor in the Europe Region10-K Item 1: 'sales to a distributor in the Europe Region and a distributor in the EA, AU & PMI GTR Region each amounted to 10 percent or more of our consolidated net revenues'
- LOWCustomerdistributor in the EA, AU & PMI GTR Region10-K Item 1: 'sales to a distributor in the Europe Region and a distributor in the EA, AU & PMI GTR Region each amounted to 10 percent or more of our consolidated net revenues'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $189.57 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Weak growth. Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $177.93. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $203.60 (-3.2% upside). Prior stop was $177.93. Stop-loss: $177.93.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth; Negative momentum.
Philip Morris International Inc trades at a P/E of 25.8 (forward 20.7). TrendMatrix value score: 4.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
27 analysts cover PM with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $204.
What does Philip Morris International Inc do?Philip Morris International sells cigarettes and smoke-free products—including IQOS heat-not-burn, ZYN nicotine...
Philip Morris International sells cigarettes and smoke-free products—including IQOS heat-not-burn, ZYN nicotine pouches, and VEEV e-vapor—in approximately 170 markets worldwide, holding a 29.2% total international market share in 2025. The company shipped 786.5 billion equivalent units in fiscal 2025, with Marlboro accounting for approximately 43% of cigarette shipment volume; approximately 84,900 employees worldwide.