Philip Morris International is a high-quality defensive consumer staples company with 27% net margins, strong margins scoring 7.5/10 on quality, but has missed earnings estimates in the last 2 consecutive quarters, the stock has exceeded analyst price targets, and the negative asymmetry makes new entry unattractive at $181.81.
Thesis pillars
- High Quality Defensive Margins→Stable
- Dividend Sustainability Concern→Stable
- Consecutive Earnings Misses→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Philip Morris International Inc (PM) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Consumer Defensive · Tobacco
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $182.87 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Weak growth.
Philip Morris International sells cigarettes and smoke-free products—including IQOS heat-not-burn, ZYN nicotine pouches, and VEEV e-vapor—in approximately 170 markets worldwide, holding a 29.2% total international market share in 2025. The company shipped 786.5 billion... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $182.87 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Weak growth. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 23d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: conservative.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-29Recent Developments — Philip Morris International Inc
Latest news
- NEWS Philip Morris International Inc (PM) Stock Up 7.0% but GF Value Says Overvalued -- GF Score: 90/100 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS VOO is up 0.8% today, on PM stock price movement - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative positive
- NEWS Philip Morris Had a Mixed Quarter. Why the Tobacco Stock Is Rising. - Barron's — Barron's positive
- NEWS Philip Morris (NYSE:PM) Exceeds Q1 CY2026 Expectations - StockStory — StockStory positive
- NEWS M&T Bank Corp Sells 81,431 Shares of Philip Morris International Inc. $PM - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
Generated 2026-06-29T23:58:56Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMProductMarlboro43%10-K Item 1: 'Marlboro, the world's best-selling international cigarette, which accounted for approximately 43% of our total 2025 cigarette shipment volume'
- LOWGeographicRussia6.0%10-K Item 1A: 'Russia accounted for around 9% of our total cigarette and heated tobacco unit shipment volume, and around 6% of our total net revenues'
- LOWCustomerdistributor in the Europe Region10-K Item 1: 'sales to a distributor in the Europe Region and a distributor in the EA, AU & PMI GTR Region each amounted to 10 percent or more of our consolidated net revenues'
- LOWCustomerdistributor in the EA, AU & PMI GTR Region10-K Item 1: 'sales to a distributor in the Europe Region and a distributor in the EA, AU & PMI GTR Region each amounted to 10 percent or more of our consolidated net revenues'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $182.87 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Weak growth. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $173.37. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $181.00 (-1.0% upside). Prior stop was $173.37. Stop-loss: $173.37.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth.
Philip Morris International Inc trades at a P/E of 25.5 (forward 19.8). TrendMatrix value score: 4.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
26 analysts cover PM with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $194.
What does Philip Morris International Inc do?Philip Morris International sells cigarettes and smoke-free products—including IQOS heat-not-burn, ZYN nicotine...
Philip Morris International sells cigarettes and smoke-free products—including IQOS heat-not-burn, ZYN nicotine pouches, and VEEV e-vapor—in approximately 170 markets worldwide, holding a 29.2% total international market share in 2025. The company shipped 786.5 billion equivalent units in fiscal 2025, with Marlboro accounting for approximately 43% of cigarette shipment volume; approximately 84,900 employees worldwide.