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PMPhilip Morris International IncBuy Wait5.1·$178.37+1.31%
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Philip Morris International Inc (PM) Stock Analysis

Temp Headwind edge

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Tobacco

Wait for pullback to $172.44. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $178.37. Engine's entry $172.44 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth.

Philip Morris International sells cigarettes and smoke-free products (IQOS heated tobacco, ZYN nicotine pouches, VEEV e-vapor) in approximately 170 markets excluding the U.S., with smoke-free products available in 106 markets as of December 31, 2025. Revenue is earned from... Read more

$178.37+9.2% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#4 of 6 Tobacco
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield3.13%
IncomeYield3.34%(5y avg 4.59%)Payout81.09%at-risk
Entry $172.44(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $162.46Target $189.19(resistance)A.R:R -1.0:1Setup A.R:R 1.9:1
Analyst target$193.86+8.7%14 analysts
$189.19our TP
$178.37price
$193.86mean
$168
$210

Wait for pullback to $172.44. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $178.37. Engine's entry $172.44 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.80, earnings proximity 43d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: conservative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 22, 202643d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.5 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Consumer Defensive): +0.8
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Weak growth
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.8
P/E (Fwd)19.3
Mkt Cap$274.4B
EV/EBITDA17.4
Profit Mgn26.7%
ROE
Rev Growth9.1%
Beta0.41
Dividend3.34%
Rating analysts26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.85neutral
IV48%normal
Max Pain$90-49.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertwo distributors each 10%+
    10-K Item 1: 'sales to a distributor in the Europe Region and a distributor in the EA, AU & PMI GTR Region each amounted to 10 percent or more of our consolidated net revenues'
  • MEDIUMProductMarlboro43%
    10-K Item 1: 'Marlboro, the world’s best-selling international cigarette, which accounted for approximately 43% of our total 2025 cigarette shipment volume'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.1
Revenue Growth
4.8

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
6.0
Rsi
8.0
Oversold in uptrend (RSI 30)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.0<4.5A.R:R -1.0=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.80EARNINGS PROXIMITY 43d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Conservative
RSI
30 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $170.00Resistance $193.05

Price Targets

$162
$172
$189
A.Upside+6.1%
A.R:R-1.0:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.8%
Max %1.5%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.4% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! momentum at 3.0 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (43d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PM stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $172.44. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $178.37. Engine's entry $172.44 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $189.19 (+6.1%), stop $162.46 (−9.8%), Setup A.R:R 1.9:1. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $189.19 (+9.2% upside). Target $189.19 (+6.1%), stop $162.46 (−9.8%), Setup A.R:R 1.9:1. Stop-loss: $162.46.

What are the risks of investing in PM?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth; Negative momentum.

Is PM overvalued or undervalued?

Philip Morris International Inc trades at a P/E of 24.8 (forward 19.3). TrendMatrix value score: 4.6/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about PM?

26 analysts cover PM with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $194.

What does Philip Morris International Inc do?Philip Morris International sells cigarettes and smoke-free products (IQOS heated tobacco, ZYN nicotine pouches, VEEV...

Philip Morris International sells cigarettes and smoke-free products (IQOS heated tobacco, ZYN nicotine pouches, VEEV e-vapor) in approximately 170 markets excluding the U.S., with smoke-free products available in 106 markets as of December 31, 2025. Revenue is earned from product sales through distributors and direct channels serving approximately 84,900 employees worldwide; Marlboro accounted for approximately 43% of total 2025 cigarette shipment volume.

Related stocks: MO (Altria Group, Inc.) · BTI (British American Tobacco Indus) · MNST (Monster Beverage Corporation) · BUD (Anheuser-Busch Inbev SA Sponsor) · HSY (The Hershey Company)
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