Philip Morris International Inc (PM) Stock Analysis
Consumer Defensive · Tobacco
Sell if holding. At $164.88, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.1%; Weak growth.
Philip Morris International sells cigarettes and smoke-free products (IQOS HTUs, ZYN nicotine pouches, VEEV e-vapor) internationally across ~170 markets, organized in four geographic segments; effective Q1 2026, reorganized into International Smoke-Free, International... Read more
Sell if holding. At $164.88, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.1%; Weak growth. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicRussia6.0%10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025, Russia accounted for around 9% of our total cigarette and heated tobacco unit shipment volume, and around 6% of our total net revenues'
- MEDIUMCustomertwo distributors exceeding 10% of net revenues10-K Item 1: 'sales to a distributor in the Europe Region and a distributor in the EA, AU & PMI GTR Region each amounted to 10 percent or more of our consolidated net revenues'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $164.88, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.1%; Weak growth. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $155.25. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $173.34 (+5.1% upside). Prior stop was $155.25. Stop-loss: $155.25.
Thin upside margin: 5.1%; Weak growth.
Philip Morris International Inc trades at a P/E of 22.9 (forward 17.8). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
27 analysts cover PM with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $193.
What does Philip Morris International Inc do?Philip Morris International sells cigarettes and smoke-free products (IQOS HTUs, ZYN nicotine pouches, VEEV e-vapor)...
Philip Morris International sells cigarettes and smoke-free products (IQOS HTUs, ZYN nicotine pouches, VEEV e-vapor) internationally across ~170 markets, organized in four geographic segments; effective Q1 2026, reorganized into International Smoke-Free, International Combustibles, and U.S. segments. Total shipment volume was 786.5B equivalent units in 2025, with 179.1B smoke-free units; Marlboro accounted for ~43% of cigarette shipment volume. Russia (~9% of cigarette/HTU volume, ~6% of net revenues) and two large distributors (each exceeding 10% of consolidated net revenues) represent notabl