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Philip Morris International Inc (PM) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Tobacco

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $192.00 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (0.8% away).

Philip Morris International sells cigarettes and smoke-free products (IQOS heated tobacco, ZYN nicotine pouches, VEEV e-vapor) in approximately 170 markets excluding the U.S., with smoke-free products available in 106 markets as of December 31, 2025. Revenue is earned from... Read more

$192.00-1.3% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#5 of 6 Tobacco
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield2.87%
IncomeYield3.10%(5y avg 4.62%)Payout81.09%at-risk
Stop $181.78Target $189.09(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst target$192.14+0.1%14 analysts
$189.09our TP
$192.00price
$192.14mean
$168
$210

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $192.00 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (0.8% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 64d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: conservative.

Recent Developments — Philip Morris International Inc

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.5 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Consumer Defensive): +0.8
High-quality business
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (0.8% away)
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)27.0
P/E (Fwd)21.0
Mkt Cap$298.5B
EV/EBITDA18.7
Profit Mgn26.7%
ROE
Rev Growth9.1%
Beta0.39
Dividend3.10%
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.29bearish
IV37%normal
Max Pain$125-34.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertwo distributors each 10%+
    10-K Item 1: 'sales to a distributor in the Europe Region and a distributor in the EA, AU & PMI GTR Region each amounted to 10 percent or more of our consolidated net revenues'
  • MEDIUMProductMarlboro43%
    10-K Item 1: 'Marlboro, the world’s best-selling international cigarette, which accounted for approximately 43% of our total 2025 cigarette shipment volume'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.1
Revenue Growth
4.8

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.4
Bollinger
0.9
52w Position
9.8
GatesA.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 64d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Conservative
RSI
85 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $153.18Resistance $192.95

Price Targets

$182
$189
A.Upside-1.5%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-12.7% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=-2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (64d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $192.00 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (0.8% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $181.78. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $189.09 (-1.3% upside). Prior stop was $181.78. Stop-loss: $181.78.

What are the risks of investing in PM?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.8% away); Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is PM overvalued or undervalued?

Philip Morris International Inc trades at a P/E of 27.0 (forward 21.0). TrendMatrix value score: 4.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PM?

27 analysts cover PM with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $192.

What does Philip Morris International Inc do?Philip Morris International sells cigarettes and smoke-free products (IQOS heated tobacco, ZYN nicotine pouches, VEEV...

Philip Morris International sells cigarettes and smoke-free products (IQOS heated tobacco, ZYN nicotine pouches, VEEV e-vapor) in approximately 170 markets excluding the U.S., with smoke-free products available in 106 markets as of December 31, 2025. Revenue is earned from product sales through distributors and direct channels serving approximately 84,900 employees worldwide; Marlboro accounted for approximately 43% of total 2025 cigarette shipment volume.

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