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Philip Morris International Inc (PM) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Tobacco

Sell if holding. At $164.88, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.1%; Weak growth.

Philip Morris International sells cigarettes and smoke-free products (IQOS HTUs, ZYN nicotine pouches, VEEV e-vapor) internationally across ~170 markets, organized in four geographic segments; effective Q1 2026, reorganized into International Smoke-Free, International... Read more

$164.88+5.1% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#5 of 6 Tobacco
Stop $155.25Target $173.34(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.7:1
Analyst target$192.60+16.8%15 analysts
$173.34our TP
$164.88price
$192.60mean
$210

Sell if holding. At $164.88, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.1%; Weak growth. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Risks
Thin upside margin: 5.1%
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.9
P/E (Fwd)17.8
Mkt Cap$253.6B
EV/EBITDA16.2
Profit Mgn26.7%
ROE
Rev Growth9.1%
Beta0.45
Dividend3.61%
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.70neutral
IV38%normal
Max Pain$200+21.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicRussia6.0%
    10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025, Russia accounted for around 9% of our total cigarette and heated tobacco unit shipment volume, and around 6% of our total net revenues'
  • MEDIUMCustomertwo distributors exceeding 10% of net revenues
    10-K Item 1: 'sales to a distributor in the Europe Region and a distributor in the EA, AU & PMI GTR Region each amounted to 10 percent or more of our consolidated net revenues'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.1
Revenue Growth
4.8
GatesA.R:R 0.7 < 1.5@spotMomentum 4.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.5>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 83d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
54 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $153.18Resistance $170.88

Price Targets

$155
$173
A.Upside+5.1%
A.R:R0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Reward/Risk 0.7:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (83d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $164.88, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.1%; Weak growth. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $155.25. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $173.34 (+5.1% upside). Prior stop was $155.25. Stop-loss: $155.25.

What are the risks of investing in PM?

Thin upside margin: 5.1%; Weak growth.

Is PM overvalued or undervalued?

Philip Morris International Inc trades at a P/E of 22.9 (forward 17.8). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PM?

27 analysts cover PM with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $193.

What does Philip Morris International Inc do?Philip Morris International sells cigarettes and smoke-free products (IQOS HTUs, ZYN nicotine pouches, VEEV e-vapor)...

Philip Morris International sells cigarettes and smoke-free products (IQOS HTUs, ZYN nicotine pouches, VEEV e-vapor) internationally across ~170 markets, organized in four geographic segments; effective Q1 2026, reorganized into International Smoke-Free, International Combustibles, and U.S. segments. Total shipment volume was 786.5B equivalent units in 2025, with 179.1B smoke-free units; Marlboro accounted for ~43% of cigarette shipment volume. Russia (~9% of cigarette/HTU volume, ~6% of net revenues) and two large distributors (each exceeding 10% of consolidated net revenues) represent notabl

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