PepsiCo has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with a 44% ROE and a superior Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, but trades near analyst targets with only 3.7% upside, carries a high debt-to-equity ratio, and faces a sole-source raw material supplier concentration risk.
Thesis pillars
- High Roe Brand Quality→Stable
- Earnings Consistency Consumer Staple→Stable
- Leverage Supplier Concentration↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pepsico, Inc. (PEP) Stock Analysis
Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $136.60, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: sole supplier raw materials; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
PepsiCo makes and sells beverages and convenient foods across more than 200 countries through six reportable segments spanning North America, EMEA, Latin America, and Asia Pacific. Revenue is earned from branded product sales via direct-store-delivery, customer warehouse, and... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $136.60, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: sole supplier raw materials; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 75d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Pepsico, Inc.
About Pepsico, Inc.
Walmart Inc. and its affiliates, including Sam's Club, represented approximately 14% of PepsiCo's consolidated net revenue in 2025 across all six segments, including concentrate sold to independent bottlers resold to Walmart. The company sells beverages and convenient foods in more than 200 countries and territories through brands including Lay's, Doritos, Cheetos, Gatorade, and Pepsi-Cola. In measured U.S. beverage channels, PepsiCo held approximately 16% of the liquid refreshment category by estimated retail sales in 2025, compared to The Coca-Cola Company's roughly 20%.
PepsiCo earns revenue through branded volume sales distributed via direct-store-delivery, customer warehouses, third-party distributor networks, and a growing e-commerce presence. Six segments—PepsiCo Foods North America, PepsiCo Beverages North America, International Beverages Franchise, EMEA, LatAm Foods, and Asia Pacific Foods—each address distinct geographies and product categories. Raw material cost volatility across corn, potatoes, oats, aluminum, PET resin, and vegetable oils is managed via fixed-price contracts and derivative instruments including swaps and futures. The Coca-Cola Company is PepsiCo's primary U.S. beverage competitor; in convenient foods the company competes with Mondelēz International, Conagra Brands, and Keurig Dr Pepper, among others. Tariffs imposed on imports from China, the EU, Canada, and Mexico continued to affect supply chain input costs through 2025, and the company experienced ongoing volatility in commodity, packaging, and transportation costs.
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Beyond the Walmart relationship, the retail landscape is shifting against branded manufacturers: retailers and buying groups are removing PepsiCo products from shelf allocations and investing in private-label alternatives, a trend the 10-K identifies as potentially adverse to pricing and volume. Government benefit program changes—including modifications to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program in the United States—could reduce demand among price-sensitive consumers. Taxes on sugar, sodium, or saturated fat content, already imposed in certain jurisdictions and under consideration in others, may require product reformulations or price adjustments that could weigh on unit demand.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
From Pepsico, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-26Recent Developments — Pepsico, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS PepsiCo (PEP) To Report Earnings Tomorrow: Here Is What To Expect - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS PepsiCo Earnings Preview: Can Snacks Drive a PEP Stock Rebound? - EBC Financial Group — EBC Financial Group neutral
- NEWS PepsiCo Inc (PEP) Stock Up 4.2% and Still Undervalued -- GF Scor - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS PepsiCo Inc Stock (PEP) Moved Up by 4.21% on Jul 1: Key Drivers Unveiled - TradingKey — TradingKey positive
- NEWS PEPSICO ANNOUNCES PROGRESS TOWARD 2030 AGRICULTURE GOALS - PR Newswire — PR Newswire positive
Generated 2026-07-26T10:02:08Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerWalmart14%10-K Item 1: 'sales to Walmart Inc. (Walmart) and its affiliates, including Sam's Club (Sam's), represented approximately 14% of our consolidated net revenue'
- HIGHSuppliersole supplier raw materials10-K Item 1A: 'Some raw materials and supplies, including packaging materials, are available only from a limited number of suppliers or from a sole supplier'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $136.60, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: sole supplier raw materials; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $140.32 (+2.7%), stop $129.72 (−5.3%), A.R:R 0.5:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $140.32 (+2.7% upside). Target $140.32 (+2.7%), stop $129.72 (−5.3%), A.R:R 0.5:1. Stop-loss: $129.72.
Concentration risk — Supplier: sole supplier raw materials; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5.
Pepsico, Inc. trades at a P/E of 17.7 (forward 15.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Hold.
30 analysts cover PEP with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $156.
What does Pepsico, Inc. do?PepsiCo makes and sells beverages and convenient foods across more than 200 countries through six reportable segments...
PepsiCo makes and sells beverages and convenient foods across more than 200 countries through six reportable segments spanning North America, EMEA, Latin America, and Asia Pacific. Revenue is earned from branded product sales via direct-store-delivery, customer warehouse, and distributor networks; Walmart and its affiliates represented approximately 14% of consolidated net revenue in 2025.