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Pepsico, Inc. (PEP) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Non-Alcoholic

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $149.98 — A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5.

PepsiCo is a global beverage and convenient food company with six reportable segments operating in 200+ countries under brands including Lay's, Pepsi, Gatorade, Doritos, and Quaker. Revenue is driven by direct sales to retailers, wholesalers, foodservice operators, and... Read more

$149.98+2.5% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#6 of 13 Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield4.26%
IncomeYield3.94%(5y avg 3.01%)Payout89.32%at-risk
Stop $143.73Target $154.16(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.5:1
Analyst target$171.29+14.2%21 analysts
$154.16our TP
$149.98price
$171.29mean
$132
$195

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $149.98 — A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 57d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Pepsico, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Consumer Defensive): +0.8
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.6
P/E (Fwd)16.4
Mkt Cap$205.5B
EV/EBITDA13.2
Profit Mgn9.1%
ROE43.9%
Rev Growth8.5%
Beta0.39
Dividend3.94%
Rating analysts29

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.67bearish
IV36%normal
Max Pain$80-46.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerWalmart14%
    10-K Item 1: 'In 2025, sales to Walmart Inc. (Walmart) and its affiliates, including Sam's Club (Sam's), represented approximately 14% of our consolidated net revenue'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R 0.5 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 57d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
39 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $147.48Resistance $160.00

Price Targets

$144
$154
A.Upside+2.8%
A.R:R0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.5% upside)
! Reward/Risk 0.5:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-16 (57d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PEP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $149.98 — A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $143.73. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PEP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $154.16 (+2.5% upside). Prior stop was $143.73. Stop-loss: $143.73.

What are the risks of investing in PEP?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is PEP overvalued or undervalued?

Pepsico, Inc. trades at a P/E of 23.6 (forward 16.4). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PEP?

29 analysts cover PEP with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $171.

What does Pepsico, Inc. do?PepsiCo is a global beverage and convenient food company with six reportable segments operating in 200+ countries under...

PepsiCo is a global beverage and convenient food company with six reportable segments operating in 200+ countries under brands including Lay's, Pepsi, Gatorade, Doritos, and Quaker. Revenue is driven by direct sales to retailers, wholesalers, foodservice operators, and independent bottlers; Walmart and affiliates represented approximately 14% of consolidated net revenue in 2025.

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