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Pepsico, Inc. (PEP) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Non-Alcoholic

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $157.94 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5.

PepsiCo is a global beverage and convenient food company with six segments spanning North America, EMEA, Latin America, and Asia Pacific, selling brands including Pepsi, Lay's, Gatorade, and Quaker in 200+ countries. Revenue comes from selling through distributors, retailers,... Read more

$157.94-0.7% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#5 of 13 Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
Stop $151.69Target $156.83(resistance)A.R:R -0.4:1
Analyst target$172.00+8.9%21 analysts
$156.83our TP
$157.94price
$172.00mean
$130
$195

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $157.94 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 52, MACD bullish. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.4
P/E (Fwd)17.0
Mkt Cap$212.3B
EV/EBITDA13.6
Profit Mgn9.1%
ROE43.9%
Rev Growth8.5%
Beta0.41
Dividend3.66%
Rating analysts29

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C2.57bearish
IV39%normal
Max Pain$120-24.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerWalmart14%
    10-K Item 1: 'In 2025, sales to Walmart Inc. (Walmart) and its affiliates, including Sam’s Club (Sam’s), represented approximately 14% of our consolidated net revenue'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -0.4=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.1>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
52 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $151.75Resistance $160.03

Price Targets

$152
$157
A.Upside-0.7%
A.R:R-0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.0% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-16 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PEP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $157.94 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 52, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $151.69. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PEP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $156.83 (-0.7% upside). Prior stop was $151.69. Stop-loss: $151.69.

What are the risks of investing in PEP?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5.

Is PEP overvalued or undervalued?

Pepsico, Inc. trades at a P/E of 24.4 (forward 17.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PEP?

29 analysts cover PEP with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $172.

What does Pepsico, Inc. do?PepsiCo is a global beverage and convenient food company with six segments spanning North America, EMEA, Latin America,...

PepsiCo is a global beverage and convenient food company with six segments spanning North America, EMEA, Latin America, and Asia Pacific, selling brands including Pepsi, Lay's, Gatorade, and Quaker in 200+ countries. Revenue comes from selling through distributors, retailers, and authorized bottlers; in 2025, Walmart and affiliates represented approximately 14% of consolidated net revenue across all segments. The company faces primary beverage competition from The Coca-Cola Company.

Related stocks: MNST (Monster Beverage Corporation) · KO (Coca-Cola Company (The)) · CCEP (Coca-Cola Europacific Partners ) · KDP (Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.)