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Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Non-Alcoholic

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $29.39 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Keurig Dr Pepper manufactures, markets, and distributes hot and cold beverages and single-serve brewing systems in North America across US Refreshment Beverages, US Coffee, and International segments, with over 125 owned, licensed, and partner brands including Dr Pepper, Keurig,... Read more

$29.39+1.8% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#9 of 13 Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
Stop $27.78Target $29.93(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.1:1
Analyst target$33.25+13.1%16 analysts
$29.93our TP
$29.39price
$33.25mean
$42

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $29.39 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 72. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.40, news boost analyst cluster(5), earnings proximity 84d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Positive news sentiment (+0.78)
Recent Analyst detected in news
Recent Analyst Cluster(5) detected in news
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.4
P/E (Fwd)11.5
Mkt Cap$39.4B
EV/EBITDA17.0
Profit Mgn10.8%
ROE6.3%
Rev Growth9.4%
Beta0.36
Dividend3.18%
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.20bullish
IV42%normal
Max Pain$20-31.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMProductK-Cup pods
    10-K Item 1A: 'A significant portion of our business is attributable to sales of K-Cup pods for use with Keurig brewing systems'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-12Item 5.02LOW
    Board expanded to eleven directors; William Newlands and Amie Thuener appointed as independent members effective March 2, 2026. Newlands to Nominating and Governance Committee; Thuener to Audit and Finance Committee. No reason cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
4.8

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.3
Bollinger
0.4
52w Position
6.8

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
3.8
Value Rank
5.2
Growth Rank
6.2
GatesA.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.40NEWS BOOST ANALYST CLUSTER(5)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 84d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
72 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $24.88Resistance $29.53

Price Targets

$28
$30
A.Upside+1.8%
A.R:R0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.8% upside)
! Reward/Risk 0.1:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (84d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KDP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $29.39 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 72. Prior stop was $27.78. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the KDP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $29.93 (+1.8% upside). Prior stop was $27.78. Stop-loss: $27.78.

What are the risks of investing in KDP?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak growth.

Is KDP overvalued or undervalued?

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. trades at a P/E of 21.4 (forward 11.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about KDP?

21 analysts cover KDP with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $33.

What does Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. do?Keurig Dr Pepper manufactures, markets, and distributes hot and cold beverages and single-serve brewing systems in...

Keurig Dr Pepper manufactures, markets, and distributes hot and cold beverages and single-serve brewing systems in North America across US Refreshment Beverages, US Coffee, and International segments, with over 125 owned, licensed, and partner brands including Dr Pepper, Keurig, and K-Cup pods. Revenue comes from product sales through DSD networks, e-commerce, and wholesale channels. The company is acquiring JDE Peet's and plans to subsequently separate into two independent publicly traded companies.

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