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KDPKeurig Dr Pepper Inc.Sell4.9·$30.65+0.39%
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Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Non-Alcoholic

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $30.65 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1).

Keurig Dr Pepper manufactures and distributes hot/cold beverages and Keurig single-serve brewing systems in North America with ~$25B in 2025 net sales across U.S. Refreshment Beverages, U.S. Coffee, and International segments. It serves retailers, bottlers, distributors,... Read more

$30.65-1.1% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#11 of 13 Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-39.35%
IncomeYield3.01%(5y avg 2.49%)Payout68.15%
Stop $29.31Target $30.42(resistance)A.R:R -0.3:1
Analyst target$33.25+8.5%16 analysts
$30.42our TP
$30.65price
$33.25mean
$28
$42

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $30.65 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 45d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 23, 202645d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Consumer Defensive): +0.8
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1)
Weak overall score: 4.9/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.6
P/E (Fwd)12.1
Mkt Cap$41.5B
EV/EBITDA17.5
Profit Mgn10.8%
ROE6.3%
Rev Growth9.4%
Beta0.42
Dividend3.01%
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.50bearish
IV47%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
4.8

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.9
Support Resistance
1.0
52w Position
7.6

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
3.5
Value Rank
4.3
Growth Rank
6.2

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
6.0
Dividend: 301.0%
GatesA.R:R -0.3=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 45d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
67 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $28.27Resistance $31.04

Price Targets

$29
$30
A.Upside-0.8%
A.R:R-0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.7% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (45d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KDP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $30.65 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $29.31. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the KDP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $30.42 (-1.1% upside). Prior stop was $29.31. Stop-loss: $29.31.

What are the risks of investing in KDP?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1); Weak overall score: 4.9/10.

Is KDP overvalued or undervalued?

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. trades at a P/E of 22.6 (forward 12.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about KDP?

22 analysts cover KDP with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $33.

What does Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. do?Keurig Dr Pepper manufactures and distributes hot/cold beverages and Keurig single-serve brewing systems in North...

Keurig Dr Pepper manufactures and distributes hot/cold beverages and Keurig single-serve brewing systems in North America with ~$25B in 2025 net sales across U.S. Refreshment Beverages, U.S. Coffee, and International segments. It serves retailers, bottlers, distributors, foodservice, and direct-to-consumer channels. Walmart represents approximately 21% of consolidated net sales; KDP completed the acquisition of JDE Peet's in March 2026.

Related stocks: CELH (Celsius Holdings, Inc.) · COKE (Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc.) · MNST (Monster Beverage Corporation) · COCO (The Vita Coco Company, Inc.) · PEP (Pepsico, Inc.)
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