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Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Non-Alcoholic

Sell if holding. At $28.90, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.7%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1).

Keurig Dr Pepper manufactures and distributes hot/cold beverages and Keurig single-serve brewing systems in North America with ~$25B in 2025 net sales across U.S. Refreshment Beverages, U.S. Coffee, and International segments. It serves retailers, bottlers, distributors,... Read more

$28.90+3.7% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#10 of 13 Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-41.64%
IncomeYield3.19%(5y avg 2.46%)Payout68.15%
Stop $27.50Target $29.93(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.6:1
Analyst target$33.25+15.1%16 analysts
$29.93our TP
$28.90price
$33.25mean
$42

Sell if holding. At $28.90, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.7%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1). Chart setup: RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 64d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Consumer Defensive): +0.8
Risks
Thin upside margin: 3.7%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1)
Weak overall score: 4.8/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.4
P/E (Fwd)11.4
Mkt Cap$39.3B
EV/EBITDA17.0
Profit Mgn10.8%
ROE6.3%
Rev Growth9.4%
Beta0.42
Dividend3.19%
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV34%normal
Max Pain$20-30.8% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
4.8

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
2.9
Ma Position
5.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-MA but MA slope flat

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
3.5
Value Rank
5.2
Growth Rank
6.2
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5A.R:R 0.6 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 64d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
42 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $27.12Resistance $29.68

Price Targets

$28
$30
A.Upside+3.6%
A.R:R0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.6:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (64d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KDP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $28.90, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.7%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1). Chart setup: RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $27.50. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the KDP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $29.93 (+3.7% upside). Prior stop was $27.50. Stop-loss: $27.50.

What are the risks of investing in KDP?

Thin upside margin: 3.7%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1); Weak overall score: 4.8/10.

Is KDP overvalued or undervalued?

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. trades at a P/E of 21.4 (forward 11.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about KDP?

22 analysts cover KDP with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $33.

What does Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. do?Keurig Dr Pepper manufactures and distributes hot/cold beverages and Keurig single-serve brewing systems in North...

Keurig Dr Pepper manufactures and distributes hot/cold beverages and Keurig single-serve brewing systems in North America with ~$25B in 2025 net sales across U.S. Refreshment Beverages, U.S. Coffee, and International segments. It serves retailers, bottlers, distributors, foodservice, and direct-to-consumer channels. Walmart represents approximately 21% of consolidated net sales; KDP completed the acquisition of JDE Peet's in March 2026.

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