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PBRPetroleo Brasileiro S.A. PetrobSell5.4·$16.21+1.37%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Petrobras offers extreme deep value at a forward P/E of 4.2x with 26% return on equity and an oversold RSI of 21, while analysts project 32% upside — but three consecutive earnings misses and a put/call ratio of 2.65 signal that the market has significant near-term concerns about earnings quality and geopolitical risk.

Thesis pillars

  • Roe Peer AdvantageStable
  • Oversold Rsi Technical InflectionStable
  • Extreme Deep Value Forward PeStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Petrob (PBR) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $16.21 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Weak growth.

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras explores, produces, and sells oil and gas in Brazil, China, the United States, the Americas, Asia, Europe, Singapore, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Exploration and Production; Refining, Transportation & Marketing;... Read more

$16.21+24.0% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#13 of 17 Oil & Gas Integrated
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield79.88%
IncomeYield10.94%(5y avg 23.03%)Payout41.58%sustainable
Stop $15.38Target $19.98(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 4.2:1
Analyst target$22.97+41.7%13 analysts
$19.98our TP
$16.21price
$22.97mean
$29

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $16.21 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 33d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202633d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 66%
Analyst upside: 24%
Risks
Consecutive earnings misses (3)
Weak growth
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)5.1
P/E (Fwd)3.9
Mkt Cap$103.8B
EV/EBITDA2.1
Profit Mgn21.6%
ROE25.6%
Rev Growth0.4%
Beta-0.14
Dividend10.94%
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.38bearish
IV52%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.6
Revenue Growth
2.6

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
2.8
Dividend Safety
4.8
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Volume
2.4
Macd
3.5
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
8.8
Oversold in uptrend (RSI 18)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5A.R:R 4.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 33d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
18 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $15.86Resistance $18.50

Price Targets

$15
$20
A.Upside+23.3%
A.R:R4.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (33d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PBR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $16.21 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $15.38. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PBR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $19.98 (+24.0% upside). Prior stop was $15.38. Stop-loss: $15.38.

What are the risks of investing in PBR?

Consecutive earnings misses (3); Weak growth; Negative momentum.

Is PBR overvalued or undervalued?

Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Petrob trades at a P/E of 5.1 (forward 3.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PBR?

18 analysts cover PBR with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $23.

What does Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Petrob do?Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras explores, produces, and sells oil and gas in Brazil, China, the United States, the...

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras explores, produces, and sells oil and gas in Brazil, China, the United States, the Americas, Asia, Europe, Singapore, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Exploration and Production; Refining, Transportation & Marketing; and Gas & Low Carbon Energies. The Exploration and Production segment explores, develops, and produces crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas primarily for supplies to the domestic refineries. Its Refining, Transportation and Marketing segment engages in the refining, logistics, transport, acquisition, and export of crude oil; trading of oil products; and production of fertilizers, as well as holding interests in petrochemical companies. The Gas and Low Carbon Energies segment is involved in the logistic and trading of natural gas and electricity; transportation and trading of liquefied natural gas; generation of electricity through thermoelectric power plants; renewable energy business; low carbon business; and natural gas processing business, as well as production of biodiesel and its co-products. It also engages in prospecting, drilling, refining, processing, trading, and transporting crude oil from producing onshore and offshore oil fields, and shale or other rocks, as well as oil products, natural gas, and other liquid hydrocarbons. In addition, the company engages in research, development, production, transportation, distribution, and trading of energy. Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras was incorporated in 1953 and is headquartered in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil.

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