Petrobras offers extreme deep value at a forward P/E of 4.2x with 26% return on equity and an oversold RSI of 21, while analysts project 32% upside — but three consecutive earnings misses and a put/call ratio of 2.65 signal that the market has significant near-term concerns about earnings quality and geopolitical risk.
Thesis pillars
- Roe Peer Advantage↓Deteriorating
- Oversold Rsi Technical Inflection↑Improving
- Extreme Deep Value Forward Pe↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Petrob (PBR) Stock Analysis
Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated
Wait for pullback to $18.12. At $18.75 the A.R:R is 0.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $18.12 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 4.7%; Consecutive earnings misses (3).
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras explores, produces, and sells oil and gas in Brazil, China, the United States, the Americas, Asia, Europe, Singapore, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Exploration and Production; Refining, Transportation & Marketing;... Read more
Wait for pullback to $18.12. At $18.75 the A.R:R is 0.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $18.12 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 4.7%; Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Deep value: 60% margin of safety. Extreme undervaluation. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-26Recent Developments — Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Petrob
Latest news
- NEWS Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) Top Energy Secto - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras ADR Cert Deposito Arg Repr 1 ADR - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras (PBR) Shares Fall 3.4% -- What GF Score of 62 Tells Investors - GuruFocus — GuruFocus negative
- NEWS Petróleo Brasileiro’s (PBR) Board of Directors Approves FID for RPBC Biorefining Project - Insider Monkey — Insider Monkey positive
- NEWS Petróleo Brasileiro’s (PBR) Board of Directors Approves FID for RPBC Biorefining Project - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
Generated 2026-07-26T09:57:02Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $18.12. At $18.75 the A.R:R is 0.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $18.12 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 4.7%; Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Deep value: 60% margin of safety. Extreme undervaluation. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $19.65 (+4.8%), stop $17.19 (−9.1%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $19.65 (+4.7% upside). Target $19.65 (+4.8%), stop $17.19 (−9.1%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Stop-loss: $17.19.
Thin upside margin: 4.7%; Consecutive earnings misses (3); Weak growth.
Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Petrob trades at a P/E of 5.9 (forward 4.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
18 analysts cover PBR with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $23.
What does Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Petrob do?Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras explores, produces, and sells oil and gas in Brazil, China, the United States, the...
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras explores, produces, and sells oil and gas in Brazil, China, the United States, the Americas, Asia, Europe, Singapore, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Exploration and Production; Refining, Transportation & Marketing; and Gas & Low Carbon Energies. The Exploration and Production segment explores, develops, and produces crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas primarily for supplies to the domestic refineries. Its Refining, Transportation and Marketing segment engages in the refining, logistics, transport, acquisition, and export of crude oil; trading of oil products; and production of fertilizers, as well as holding interests in petrochemical companies. The Gas and Low Carbon Energies segment is involved in the logistic and trading of natural gas and electricity; transportation and trading of liquefied natural gas; generation of electricity through thermoelectric power plants; renewable energy business; low carbon business; and natural gas processing business, as well as production of biodiesel and its co-products. It also engages in prospecting, drilling, refining, processing, trading, and transporting crude oil from producing onshore and offshore oil fields, and shale or other rocks, as well as oil products, natural gas, and other liquid hydrocarbons. In addition, the company engages in research, development, production, transportation, distribution, and trading of energy. Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras was incorporated in 1953 and is headquartered in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil.