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OXYOccidental Petroleum CorporatioSell4.7·$49.01+0.19%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Occidental Petroleum beat earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 51%, and technical signals show a potential reversal setup after a sharp gap down, but negative news sentiment, declining revenues, and weak momentum keep the risk-reward unfavorably skewed at current prices.

Thesis pillars

  • Perfect Four Quarter Beat StreakStable
  • Revenue Decline Growth ConcernStable
  • Negative News SentimentStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Occidental Petroleum Corporatio (OXY) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $49.01 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Weak overall score: 4.7/10; Weak growth.

Occidental Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and gas properties in the United States and internationally. It operates through Oil and Gas and Midstream and Marketing. The Oil and Gas segment... Read more

$49.01+20.0% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#43 of 48 Oil & Gas E&P
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield6.24%
IncomeYield2.13%(5y avg 1.14%)Payout132.43%at-risk
Stop $46.34Target $58.77(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 3.6:1
Analyst target$65.30+33.2%23 analysts
$58.77our TP
$49.01price
$65.30mean
$75

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $49.01 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Weak overall score: 4.7/10; Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 31d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202631d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 20%
Risks
Weak overall score: 4.7/10
Weak growth
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)66.1
P/E (Fwd)12.3
Mkt Cap$48.6B
EV/EBITDA6.5
Profit Mgn22.4%
ROE4.1%
Rev Growth-8.3%
Beta0.15
Dividend2.13%
Rating analysts30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.84neutral
IV39%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCommodityoil
    10-K Item 1A: 'The Company's financial results correlate closely to the prices it obtains for its products, particularly oil and, to a lesser extent, NGL and natural gas'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-04Item 5.02HIGH
    CEO Vicki Hollub announced retirement from Occidental Petroleum effective June 1, 2026; retirement treated as eligible under company's Retirement Policy. Hollub to remain as Board member. No successor CEO named in available filing text.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -8.3% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.4
Declining revenue: -8%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.5
Value Rank
1.8
Quality Rank
5.1

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
9.0
Oversold in uptrend (RSI 15)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.8<4.5Executive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 3.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKEARNINGS PROXIMITY 31d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
15 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $47.77Resistance $58.62

Price Targets

$46
$59
A.Upside+19.9%
A.R:R3.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (31d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OXY stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $49.01 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Weak overall score: 4.7/10; Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $46.34. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OXY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $58.77 (+20.0% upside). Prior stop was $46.34. Stop-loss: $46.34.

What are the risks of investing in OXY?

Weak overall score: 4.7/10; Weak growth; Negative momentum.

Is OXY overvalued or undervalued?

Occidental Petroleum Corporatio trades at a P/E of 66.1 (forward 12.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about OXY?

30 analysts cover OXY with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $65.

What does Occidental Petroleum Corporatio do?Occidental Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and...

Occidental Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and gas properties in the United States and internationally. It operates through Oil and Gas and Midstream and Marketing. The Oil and Gas segment explores for, develops, and produces oil and condensate, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and natural gas. This segment also optimizes its transportation and storage capacity and invests in entities. The Midstream and Marketing segment purchases, markets, gathers, processes, transports and stores oil, condensate, NGLs, natural gas, carbon dioxide, and power. Occidental Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1920 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

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