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OPFIOppFi Inc.Buy Wait5.6·$7.21+1.12%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

OppFi is a high-ROE, cheaply-valued lender with a perfect earnings beat streak, but declining revenue, overbought momentum, and a risk/reward ratio that falls just short of the engine's buy-now threshold temper the setup.

Thesis pillars

  • High Roe Quality BusinessStable
  • Cheap Forward ValuationImproving
  • Weak Revenue GrowthDeteriorating
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

OppFi Inc. (OPFI) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Temporary headwind edge

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueQualityModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Credit Services

Wait for pullback to $6.26. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $7.21. Engine's entry $6.26 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Weak growth; Negative momentum.

OppFi Inc., a tech-enabled digital finance platform, provides financial products and services for banks in the United States. The company offers installment loans through OppLoans platform. It serves consumers who are turned away by mainstream options. OppFi Inc. was founded in... Read more

$7.21+49.5% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#27 of 35 Credit Services
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
Entry $6.26(Default 5pct Sticky)Stop $5.14Target $10.77(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 3.3:1
Analyst target$12.67+75.7%3 analysts
$10.77our TP
$7.21price
$12.67mean
$16

Wait for pullback to $6.26. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $7.21. Engine's entry $6.26 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Weak growth; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 28, MACD bearish. Exceptional fundamentals but wait for better entry timing. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 75d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Oct 28, 202675d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Contrarian signal: extreme negativity (-0.80) on quality business
High-quality business
Risks
Weak growth
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.6%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)2.4
P/E (Fwd)3.7
Mkt Cap$608M
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn31.1%
ROE58.2%
Rev Growth-13.9%
Beta1.82
DividendNone
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.20bullish
IV31%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

Revenue shrinking — -13.9% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Declining revenue: -14%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 28, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 1.0<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 3.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 75d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Speculative
RSI
28 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $6.50Resistance $10.19

Price Targets

$5
$6
$11
A.Upside+49.5%
A.R:R3.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.9%
Max %1.8%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! News modifier capped: WAIT cannot upgrade to NOW via sentiment alone
! momentum at 1.0 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-28 (75d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OPFI stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $6.26. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $7.21. Engine's entry $6.26 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Weak growth; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 28, MACD bearish. Exceptional fundamentals but wait for better entry timing. Target $10.77 (+49.4%), stop $5.14 (−40.3%), A.R:R 3.3:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OPFI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $10.77 (+49.5% upside). Target $10.77 (+49.4%), stop $5.14 (−40.3%), A.R:R 3.3:1. Stop-loss: $5.14.

What are the risks of investing in OPFI?

Weak growth; Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.6%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is OPFI overvalued or undervalued?

OppFi Inc. trades at a P/E of 2.4 (forward 3.7). TrendMatrix value score: 9.5/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about OPFI?

9 analysts cover OPFI with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $13.

What does OppFi Inc. do?OppFi Inc., a tech-enabled digital finance platform, provides financial products and services for banks in the United...

OppFi Inc., a tech-enabled digital finance platform, provides financial products and services for banks in the United States. The company offers installment loans through OppLoans platform. It serves consumers who are turned away by mainstream options. OppFi Inc. was founded in 2012 and is based in Chicago, Illinois.

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