Federal Agricultural Mortgage C (AGM-A) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the AGM-A stock price target?

Take-profit $136.22 (-0.7% upside). Target $136.22 (-1.8%), stop $135.76 (−2.2%), A.R:R 0.0:1.

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 16 hr ago (May 20, 2026, 1:36 AM ET)

Financial Services · Credit Services

Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (Farmer Mac) is a federally-chartered GSE providing a secondary market for agricultural mortgage loans, USDA Securities, and rural infrastructure loans, earning net interest income and guarantee/commitment fees. As of Dec 31, 2025, $8.4B... Read more

$138.75-0.7% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#10 of 28 Credit Services

QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield—

IncomeYield4.52%(5y avg 3.63%)Payout35.14%sustainable

Stop $135.76Target $136.22(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $138.75, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Counterparty: top-3 AgVantage counterparties (90.6%); Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 Agricultural Finance institutions (55.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.0 in RISK_OFF)

Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0

High-quality business

Risks

Concentration risk — Counterparty: top-3 AgVantage counterparties (90.6%)

Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 Agricultural Finance institutions (55.0%)

Leverage penalty (D/E 20.1): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.9

P/E (Fwd)—

Mkt Cap$1.5B

EV/EBITDA—

Profit Mgn56.3%

ROE13.4%

Rev Growth14.2%

Beta1.04

Dividend4.52%

Rating analysts6

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHcounterpartytop-3 AgVantage counterparties91%
10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 90.6% of the $8.4 billion outstanding principal amount of AgVantage securities... were issued by three institutions'
HIGHCustomertop-10 Agricultural Finance institutions55%
10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025, ten institutions generated approximately 55% of loan purchase volume in the Agricultural Finance line of business'
HIGHCustomertwo Infrastructure Finance institutions
10-K Item 1A: 'transactions with two institutions represented nearly all of the business volume under our Infrastructure Finance line of business'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-04-21Item 5.02LOW
Mandy M. Talan (Corporate Controller) appointed principal accounting officer effective April 21, 2026, succeeding Gregory Ramsey who retired April 8, 2026. No disagreement cited.
SEC filing →
2026-03-26Item 5.02LOW
Gregory N. Ramsey, VP-Chief Accounting Officer (principal accounting officer), announced retirement effective April 8, 2026. No disagreement cited; successor Mandy Talan named.
SEC filing →
2026-03-11Item 5.02LOW
Human Capital and Compensation Committee approved base salary increases for named executive officers on March 5, 2026, effective retroactively to January 2026. Routine compensatory arrangement; no officer departures.
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value8.915%1.33

Quality7.015%1.05

Growth5.815%0.87

Momentum5.010%0.50

Sentiment5.010%0.50

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank5.110%0.51

Technical Setup4.85%0.24

Risk Profile7.45%0.37

Catalyst6.05%0.30

Overall (Σ contributions)6.17

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

GatesMomentum 5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)A.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Momentum 5.0>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive

RSI

77 · Overbought

↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $133.57Resistance $139.00

Price Targets

$136

A.Upside-1.8%

A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeRisk-Off

Analyst Consensus

Analysts6

Consensus4.0/5

Avg Target—

Earnings

We could not retrieve earnings history for AGM-A.

The company may be recently listed, pre-revenue, or its beat/miss record wasn't available from our source this run. Earnings signals feed the Growth and Catalyst score dimensions — absence here doesn't affect other dimensions.

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is AGM-A stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $138.75, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Counterparty: top-3 AgVantage counterparties (90.6%); Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 Agricultural Finance institutions (55.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $136.22 (-1.8%), stop $135.76 (−2.2%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AGM-A stock price target?

Take-profit target: $136.22 (-0.7% upside). Target $136.22 (-1.8%), stop $135.76 (−2.2%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Stop-loss: $135.76.

What are the risks of investing in AGM-A?

Concentration risk — Counterparty: top-3 AgVantage counterparties (90.6%); Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 Agricultural Finance institutions (55.0%); Leverage penalty (D/E 20.1): -1.5.

Is AGM-A overvalued or undervalued?

Federal Agricultural Mortgage C trades at a P/E of 7.9 (forward N/A). TrendMatrix value score: 8.9/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about AGM-A?

6 analysts cover AGM-A with a consensus score of 4.0/5.

What does Federal Agricultural Mortgage C do?Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (Farmer Mac) is a federally-chartered GSE providing a secondary market for...