A high-quality franchise with a wide economic moat, return on equity of 37%, strong operating margins of 26%, and a financial health score of 8 out of 9 screens as attractively valued at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 5.6 times with 38.6% implied upside; however, free cash flow is deeply negative relative to net income—a material quality concern—and a market capitalization of $0.90 billion places the stock below the minimum size threshold for the standard investable universe.
Thesis pillars
- High Quality Wide Moat Returns→Stable
- Attractive Valuation Deep Upside↓Deteriorating
- Sub 1b Market Cap Liquidity Constraint↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 13, 2026· older than 90 days
Jefferson Capital, Inc. (JCAP) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup · Inst Constrain edge
Financial Services · Credit Services
Wait for pullback to $19.87. BUY gates pass at $20.64, but concentration risk — Supplier: two credit card issuers and leverage penalty (D/E 3.0): -1.5 argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $19.87 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.
Jefferson Capital, Inc. provides debt recovery solutions and other related services in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Latin America. It primarily purchases portfolios of consumer receivables at discounts to face value and manage them by working with... Read more
Wait for pullback to $19.87. BUY gates pass at $20.64, but concentration risk — Supplier: two credit card issuers and leverage penalty (D/E 3.0): -1.5 argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $19.87 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 49, MACD bullish. Growth is outpacing valuation and the technical setup has confirmed a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.03, quality 7.5/10, growth 7.7/10). Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated Oct 29, 2026Recent Developments — Jefferson Capital, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Jefferson Capital to Announce Third Quarter 2026 Results - www.marketscreener.com — www.marketscreener.com Oct 29, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Jefferson Capital to Announce Third Quarter 2026 Results - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 29, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Jefferson Capital to Announce Third Quarter 2026 Results - Moomoo — Moomoo Oct 29, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Jefferson Capital: Low Valuation Backed By Rising Recoveries (NASDAQ:JCAP) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha Oct 6, 2026 positive
- NEWS JCAP Options Chain — NASDAQ:JCAP - TradingView — TradingView Sep 23, 2026 neutral
Latest item Oct 29, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:34:08Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMSuppliertop five clients (portfolio sellers)45%10-K Item 1: 'The Company’s top five clients accounted for 45.2% and 55.3%, with the top client representing 23.6% and 32.8% of purchases for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively.'
- LOWSuppliertop client (portfolio seller)24%10-K Item 1: 'The Company’s top five clients accounted for 45.2% and 55.3%, with the top client representing 23.6% and 32.8% of purchases for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively.'
- HIGHSuppliertwo credit card issuers10-K Item 1: 'For credit card receivables, the Company purchases from two issuers.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $19.87. BUY gates pass at $20.64, but concentration risk — Supplier: two credit card issuers and leverage penalty (D/E 3.0): -1.5 argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $19.87 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 49, MACD bullish. Growth is outpacing valuation and the technical setup has confirmed a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.03, quality 7.5/10, growth 7.7/10). Target $24.53 (+18.8%), stop $18.60 (−11.0%), A.R:R 2.7:1. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $24.53 (+18.9% upside). Target $24.53 (+18.8%), stop $18.60 (−11.0%), A.R:R 2.7:1. Stop-loss: $18.60.
Concentration risk — Supplier: two credit card issuers; Leverage penalty (D/E 3.0): -1.5; Earnings in 7 days (event risk).
Jefferson Capital, Inc. trades at a P/E of 22.7 (forward 6.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
13 analysts rate JCAP, with a consensus score of 4.2/5. 5 analysts publish price targets averaging $28.
What does Jefferson Capital, Inc. do?Jefferson Capital, Inc. provides debt recovery solutions and other related services in the United States, the United...
Jefferson Capital, Inc. provides debt recovery solutions and other related services in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Latin America. It primarily purchases portfolios of consumer receivables at discounts to face value and manage them by working with individuals as they repay obligations and work toward financial recovery. The company offers consumer receivables, including credit card, secured and unsecured automotive, utilities, telecom, and other receivables. It also provides debt servicing and other portfolio management services to credit originators for nonperforming loans. Jefferson Capital, Inc. was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.