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Jefferson Capital, Inc. (JCAP) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Credit Services

Earnings in 7 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. At $20.70, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.0): -1.5; Cyclical risk: PE expanding 2.0x (earnings normalizing).

Jefferson Capital, Inc. provides debt recovery solutions and other related services in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Latin America. It primarily purchases portfolios of previously charged-off consumer receivables at deep discounts to face value and manage... Read more

$20.70+10.1% A.UpsideScore 7.1/10#1 of 28 Credit Services
Stop $19.52Target $22.79(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.1:1
Analyst target$26.20+26.6%5 analysts
$22.79our TP
$20.70price
$26.20mean
$29

Sell if holding. At $20.70, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.0): -1.5; Cyclical risk: PE expanding 2.0x (earnings normalizing). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Score 7.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong overall score: 7.1/10
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Cyclical risk: PE expanding 2.0x (earnings normalizing)
Leverage penalty (D/E 3.0): -1.5
Earnings in 7 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)3.7
P/E (Fwd)7.1
Mkt Cap$1.3B
EV/EBITDA6.5
Profit Mgn31.0%
ROE43.8%
Rev Growth27.7%
Beta
Dividend4.66%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R 1.1 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dMomentum 6.3>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
59 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $18.76Resistance $21.66

Price Targets

$20
$23
A.Upside+10.1%
A.R:R1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Reward/Risk 1.1:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-07 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is JCAP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $20.70, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.0): -1.5; Cyclical risk: PE expanding 2.0x (earnings normalizing). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $19.52. Score 7.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the JCAP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $22.79 (+10.1% upside). Prior stop was $19.52. Stop-loss: $19.52.

What are the risks of investing in JCAP?

Cyclical risk: PE expanding 2.0x (earnings normalizing); Leverage penalty (D/E 3.0): -1.5; Earnings in 7 days (event risk).

Is JCAP overvalued or undervalued?

Jefferson Capital, Inc. trades at a P/E of 3.7 (forward 7.1). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about JCAP?

13 analysts cover JCAP with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $26.

What does Jefferson Capital, Inc. do?Jefferson Capital, Inc. provides debt recovery solutions and other related services in the United States, the United...

Jefferson Capital, Inc. provides debt recovery solutions and other related services in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Latin America. It primarily purchases portfolios of previously charged-off consumer receivables at deep discounts to face value and manage them by working with individuals as they repay their obligations and work toward financial recovery. The company offers consumer receivables, including credit card, secured and unsecured automotive, utilities, telecom, and other receivables. It also provides debt servicing and other portfolio management services to credit originators for nonperforming loans. Jefferson Capital, Inc. was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

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