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Jefferson Capital, Inc. (JCAP) Stock Analysis

Oversold Bounce setup · Temp Headwind edge

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Credit Services

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $17.41, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Market cap $0.96B below $1B minimum.

Jefferson Capital, Inc. provides debt recovery solutions and other related services in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Latin America. It primarily purchases portfolios of previously charged-off consumer receivables at deep discounts to face value and manage... Read more

$17.41+29.9% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#6 of 28 Credit Services
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield-14.03%
IncomeYield5.54%Payout13.99%sustainable
Stop $16.63Target $22.62(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 4.2:1
Analyst target$26.00+49.3%5 analysts
$22.62our TP
$17.41price
$26.00mean
$29

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $17.41, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Market cap $0.96B below $1B minimum. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 17, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Market cap $0.96B below $1B minimum. Not in investable universe. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 85d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Jefferson Capital, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Market cap $0.96B below $1B minimum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)3.4
P/E (Fwd)6.0
Mkt Cap$962M
EV/EBITDA6.3
Profit Mgn25.8%
ROE36.8%
Rev Growth11.9%
Beta
Dividend5.54%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.5
Rsi
3.0
Volume
6.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 17, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
GatesMomentum 2.3<4.5A.R:R 4.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 85d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEAROversold BounceSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
17 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $17.14Resistance $21.23

Price Targets

$17
$23
A.Upside+29.9%
A.R:R4.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Market cap $0.96B below $1B minimum
! Momentum score 2.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-12 (85d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is JCAP stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $17.41, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Market cap $0.96B below $1B minimum. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 17, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Market cap $0.96B below $1B minimum. Not in investable universe. Target $22.62 (+29.9%), stop $16.63 (−4.7%), A.R:R 4.2:1. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the JCAP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $22.62 (+29.9% upside). Target $22.62 (+29.9%), stop $16.63 (−4.7%), A.R:R 4.2:1. Stop-loss: $16.63.

What are the risks of investing in JCAP?

Market cap $0.96B below $1B minimum.

Is JCAP overvalued or undervalued?

Jefferson Capital, Inc. trades at a P/E of 3.4 (forward 6.0). TrendMatrix value score: 9.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about JCAP?

13 analysts cover JCAP with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $26.

What does Jefferson Capital, Inc. do?Jefferson Capital, Inc. provides debt recovery solutions and other related services in the United States, the United...

Jefferson Capital, Inc. provides debt recovery solutions and other related services in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Latin America. It primarily purchases portfolios of previously charged-off consumer receivables at deep discounts to face value and manage them by working with individuals as they repay their obligations and work toward financial recovery. The company offers consumer receivables, including credit card, secured and unsecured automotive, utilities, telecom, and other receivables. It also provides debt servicing and other portfolio management services to credit originators for nonperforming loans. Jefferson Capital, Inc. was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

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