Ollie's Bargain Outlet holds a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, a PEG ratio of 0.85, and analysts projecting 43% upside, with the discount retail model showing 3-of-4 earnings beats, though the stock is in a confirmed technical downtrend with the 200-day moving average declining at 7% per 30 days.
Thesis pillars
- Perfect Piotroski Financial Health→Stable
- Attractive Valuation Peg→Stable
- Earnings Beat Consistency→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings (OLLI) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores
Wait for pullback to $68.31. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $74.33. Engine's entry $68.31 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. and subsidiaries (collectively referred to as the "Company" or "Ollie's") is a leading off-price retailer of brand name household products. Since our founding in 1982, the Company's mission has been to sell Good Stuff Cheap®. We do this... Read more
Wait for pullback to $68.31. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $74.33. Engine's entry $68.31 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 32, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.60, earnings proximity 55d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings
Latest news
- NEWS How The Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (OLLI) Story Is Shifting On Mixed Targets And 2026 Guidance - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS RBC Trims Price Target on Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings to $153 From $155, Keeps Outperform Rating - marketscreener.co — marketscreener.com positive
- NEWS Ollie's Bargain Outlet May Signal Q2 Comparable Sales Could be Below Prior Guidance, RBC Says - marketscreener.com — marketscreener.com negative
- NEWS Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) Reports Next Week: Wall Street Expects Earnings Growth - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS RBC Trims Price Target on Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings to $152 From $153, Keeps Outperform Rating - marketscreener.co — marketscreener.com positive
Generated 2026-07-06T06:30:28Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $68.31. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $74.33. Engine's entry $68.31 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 32, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $108.18 (+45.5%), stop $60.87 (−22.1%), A.R:R 4.6:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $108.18 (+48.8% upside). Target $108.18 (+45.5%), stop $60.87 (−22.1%), A.R:R 4.6:1. Stop-loss: $60.87.
Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings trades at a P/E of 18.4 (forward 14.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
22 analysts cover OLLI with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $120.
What does Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings do?Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. and subsidiaries (collectively referred to as the "Company" or "Ollie's") is a...
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. and subsidiaries (collectively referred to as the "Company" or "Ollie's") is a leading off-price retailer of brand name household products. Since our founding in 1982, the Company's mission has been to sell Good Stuff Cheap®. We do this through a flexible buying model that focuses on closeout merchandise and excess inventory from suppliers and manufacturers around the world.