ONE Gas is a regulated natural gas utility with low beta and relatively stable demand, but consecutive earnings misses, declining revenue of 11%, and a payout ratio near 352% raise questions about dividend sustainability and the quality of near-term earnings delivery.
Thesis pillars
- Regulated Utility Stability→Stable
- Consecutive Earnings Misses→Stable
- Negative Free Cash Flow→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS) Stock Analysis
Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $80.42 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2).
ONE Gas is a 100% regulated natural gas distribution utility serving approximately 2.3 million customers in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas through three divisions — the largest natural gas distributor in Oklahoma and Kansas by customer count. Revenue from fixed delivery charges and... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $80.42 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.40, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-27Recent Developments — ONE Gas, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Truist Securities Maintains Buy on ONE Gas, Lowers Price Target to $89 — benzinga Jul 22, 2026 positive
- NEWS Morgan Stanley Maintains Equal-Weight on ONE Gas, Raises Price Target to $81 — benzinga Jul 17, 2026 positive
- NEWS Top 3 Utilities Stocks Which Could Blast Off In Q2 — benzinga Jun 10, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Mizuho Maintains Outperform on ONE Gas, Lowers Price Target to $89 — benzinga Jun 9, 2026 positive
- NEWS Truist Securities Maintains Buy on ONE Gas, Lowers Price Target to $95 — benzinga May 18, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-07-27T14:28:04Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicOklahoma, Kansas, and Texas10-K Item 1A: 'Our business activities are concentrated in three states... We provide natural gas distribution services to customers in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -11.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $80.42 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $77.37. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $80.03 (-0.9% upside). Prior stop was $77.37. Stop-loss: $77.37.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak overall score: 4.9/10.
ONE Gas, Inc. trades at a P/E of 18.2 (forward 16.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
15 analysts cover OGS with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $92.
What does ONE Gas, Inc. do?ONE Gas is a 100% regulated natural gas distribution utility serving approximately 2.3 million customers in Oklahoma,...
ONE Gas is a 100% regulated natural gas distribution utility serving approximately 2.3 million customers in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas through three divisions — the largest natural gas distributor in Oklahoma and Kansas by customer count. Revenue from fixed delivery charges and variable usage fees is governed by the OCC, KCC, and Texas RRC, with gas costs passed through at cost.