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ODFLOld Dominion Freight Line, Inc.Buy Wait5.7·$210.97-2.21%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Old Dominion Freight Line is a top-tier quality operator in less-than-truckload trucking with a Piotroski score of 6.7, industry-leading ROA and margins, and a solid 3/4 earnings beat streak, but the stock trades well above its analyst price targets at a forward P/E of 37.4x, making the near-term risk/reward unfavorable.

Thesis pillars

  • Best In Class Margins RoeStable
  • Earnings Beat ExecutionDeteriorating
  • Expensive Valuation Forward PeStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) Stock Analysis

Temporary headwind edge

Buy WaitGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Industrials · Trucking

Wait for pullback to $208.91. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $210.97. Engine's entry $208.91 (support + ATR) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation.

We are one of the largest North American less-than-truckload ("LTL") motor carriers. We provide regional, inter-regional and national LTL services through a single integrated, union-free organization. Our service offerings, which include expedited transportation, are provided... Read more

$210.97-1.2% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#4 of 12 Trucking
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield2.22%
IncomeYield0.55%(5y avg 0.45%)Payout21.92%sustainable
Entry $208.91(support + ATR)Stop $199.01Target $232.41(resistance)A.R:R -0.2:1
Analyst target$231.68+9.8%22 analysts
$232.41our TP
$210.97price
$231.68mean
$156
$280

Wait for pullback to $208.91. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $210.97. Engine's entry $208.91 (support + ATR) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 73d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-16
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Oct 28, 202673d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
High-quality business
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Expensive valuation
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)40.6
P/E (Fwd)31.9
Mkt Cap$43.7B
EV/EBITDA24.2
Profit Mgn19.4%
ROE24.8%
Rev Growth10.4%
Beta1.18
Dividend0.55%
Rating analysts31

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.50bearish
IV56%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
2.2
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
8.0
Uptrend pullback (RSI 35) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Pe
3.0
Forward Pe
3.6
Peg Ratio
3.7
Analyst Target
4.0
Ps
4.9
Forward P/E: 31.9xPEG: 2.99
GatesMomentum 3.0<4.5A.R:R -0.2=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 73d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
35 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $205.16Resistance $237.15

Price Targets

$199
$209
$232
A.Upside-1.2%
A.R:R-0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.8%
Max %1.6%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-1.2% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! momentum at 3.0 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-28 (73d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ODFL stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $208.91. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $210.97. Engine's entry $208.91 (support + ATR) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $232.41 (+10.2%), stop $199.01 (−6.0%), A.R:R -0.2:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ODFL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $232.41 (-1.2% upside). Target $232.41 (+10.2%), stop $199.01 (−6.0%), A.R:R -0.2:1. Stop-loss: $199.01.

What are the risks of investing in ODFL?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation; Negative momentum.

Is ODFL overvalued or undervalued?

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. trades at a P/E of 40.6 (forward 31.9). TrendMatrix value score: 3.3/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about ODFL?

31 analysts cover ODFL with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $232.

What does Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. do?We are one of the largest North American less-than-truckload ("LTL") motor carriers. We provide regional,...

We are one of the largest North American less-than-truckload ("LTL") motor carriers. We provide regional, inter-regional and national LTL services through a single integrated, union-free organization. Our service offerings, which include expedited transportation, are provided through an expansive network of service centers located throughout the continental United States. Through strategic alliances, we also provide LTL services throughout North America.

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