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KNXKnight-Swift Transportation HolSell4.2·$77.34-2.41%
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Knight-Swift Transportation Hol (KNX) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Trucking

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $77.34: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings provides full truckload, LTL, intermodal, and logistics services across the U.S. and Mexico through four reportable segments, operating one of North America's largest truckload fleets. In 2025, the company generated $7.5 billion in... Read more

$77.34+5.0% A.UpsideScore 4.2/10#7 of 9 Trucking
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield3.82%
IncomeYield1.01%(5y avg 1.06%)Payout352.38%at-risk
Stop $71.93Target $81.20(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst target$76.47-1.1%17 analysts
$81.20our TP
$77.34price
$76.47mean
$54
$94

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $77.34: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 60 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 36d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Knight-Swift Transportation Hol

About Knight-Swift Transportation Hol

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings generated $7.5 billion in consolidated total revenue during 2025, covering 1.8 billion loaded miles across four reportable segments: Truckload (averaging 21,428 tractors and 84,851 trailers), LTL, Logistics, and Intermodal. The LTL network added 12 service centers in 2025 toward full 48-state in-house coverage. The company serves customers throughout the U.S. and Mexico with a geographically diverse terminal network built through organic growth and 25 acquisitions since 1966, most recently the U.S. Xpress and DHE acquisitions.

Knight-Swift earns revenue through contract freight rates, fuel surcharges, and logistics fees across its four segments. The Truckload segment operates 19,395 company tractors and 2,033 independent contractor tractors in high-density freight lanes, including dedicated multi-year contracts that assign specific equipment and drivers to prescribed routes. The LTL segment — built through the acquisitions of ACT, MME, and DHE — competes with established national and regional carriers and faces substantial fixed costs in terminals and equipment that constrain new entrants. The Logistics segment brokers capacity through third-party carriers, while the Intermodal segment uses rail agreements with most major North American railroads for longer-haul lanes. Customer concentration is material: the largest single customer contributed 13.1% of total revenue in 2025, and the top five customers combined accounted for 25.6% of total revenue. Retail and discount retail customers represent a substantial portion of freight, exposing the company to consumer spending cycles.

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The 10-K documents a prolonged freight market downcycle that began in 2023 and had not fully resolved by year-end 2025, characterized by moderated consumer demand, pricing pressure in non-contract markets, and inflationary costs across equipment, fuel, and insurance. Capacity rationalization continued as smaller carriers exited. The company's asset-intensive model — requiring sustained capital in tractors, trailers, and service centers — exposes margins to downward pressure during soft freight phases, and the filing notes that unfavorable market conditions "could have similar impacts in the future." In June 2026, the company disclosed via Form 8-K that co-founder Kevin Knight resigned as Executive Chairman of the Board effective June 3, 2026, with David Vander Ploeg appointed Chair of the Board.

See also: Industrials · Trucking

From Knight-Swift Transportation Hol's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17

Recent Developments — Knight-Swift Transportation Hol

Material events (past 30 days)

  • 8K Jun 4, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: Kevin Knight resigned as Executive Chairman and Board member effective June 3, 2026. David Vander Ploeg appointed Chair of the Board on same date. No disagreement with the company cited.

Generated 2026-06-17T09:12:24Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 22, 202636d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-11.0% upside)
Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 2.1), Negative free cash flow

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)377.4
P/E (Fwd)23.1
Mkt Cap$12.9B
EV/EBITDA15.1
Profit Mgn0.5%
ROE0.5%
Rev Growth1.4%
Beta1.20
Dividend1.01%
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.25bearish
IV47%normal
Max Pain$90+16.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomerlargest customer13%
    10-K Item 1: 'Services provided to our largest customer generated 13.1% and 12.6% of total revenue in 2025 and 2024, respectively.'
  • MEDIUMCustomertop-5 customers26%
    10-K Item 1: 'our top 25, top 10, and top 5 customers accounted for 49.3%, 34.8%, and 25.6% of our total revenue, respectively.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-06-04Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Kevin Knight resigned as Executive Chairman and Board member effective June 3, 2026. David Vander Ploeg appointed Chair of the Board on same date. No disagreement with the company cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.7
Quality Rank
2.2
Growth Rank
4.4

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
2.8
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.2
Net Margin
0.2
Operating Margin
0.5
Roa
0.8
Gross Margin
0.8
Current Ratio
2.8
Moat
4.5
Piotroski F
6.7
Fcf Quality
10.0
Excellent cash conversion: 1000% FCF/NINo competitive moatQuality concerns

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
3.5
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesMomentum 4.0<4.5A.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 36d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
60 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $67.12Resistance $82.86

Price Targets

$72
$81
A.Upside+5.0%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-11.0% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 2.1), Negative free cash flow

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (36d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KNX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $77.34: Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 60 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $71.93. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the KNX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $81.20 (+5.0% upside). Prior stop was $71.93. Stop-loss: $71.93.

What are the risks of investing in KNX?

Target reached (-11.0% upside); Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 2.1), Negative free cash flow.

Is KNX overvalued or undervalued?

Knight-Swift Transportation Hol trades at a P/E of 377.4 (forward 23.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about KNX?

23 analysts cover KNX with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $76.

What does Knight-Swift Transportation Hol do?Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings provides full truckload, LTL, intermodal, and logistics services across the U.S....

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings provides full truckload, LTL, intermodal, and logistics services across the U.S. and Mexico through four reportable segments, operating one of North America's largest truckload fleets. In 2025, the company generated $7.5 billion in consolidated total revenue covering 1.8 billion loaded miles, with the Truckload segment averaging 21,428 tractors and the LTL segment expanding to all 48 contiguous states.

Related stocks: TFII (TFI International Inc.) · ARCB (ArcBest Corporation) · XPO (XPO, Inc.) · SNDR (Schneider National, Inc.) · WERN (Werner Enterprises, Inc.)
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