Northwest Natural Holding beat earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with a strong average positive surprise, but 88% of revenue is concentrated in Oregon under a single regulatory jurisdiction, free cash flow is deeply negative at negative 232% of net income, and the dividend yield is flagged as potentially unsafe.
Thesis pillars
- Oregon Geographic Concentration→Stable
- Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- Severe Negative Fcf Quality→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Northwest Natural Holding Compa (NWN) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas
Sell if holding. At $49.73, A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Oregon (88.0%); Concentration risk — Regulatory: OPUC.
NW Natural Holding operates regulated natural gas distribution through ~810,000 meters in Oregon and southwest Washington, plus ~90,000 meters in Texas (SiEnergy, acquired 2025). Revenue flows from authorized cost-of-service rates; residential and commercial customers generate... Read more
Sell if holding. At $49.73, A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Oregon (88.0%); Concentration risk — Regulatory: OPUC. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 32d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — Northwest Natural Holding Compa
Latest news
- NEWS Northwest Natural Holding Company: - marketscreener.com — marketscreener.com neutral
- NEWS Northwest Natural Gas (NWN) to Release Quarterly Earnings on Wednesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Northwest Natural To Go Ex-Dividend On April 30th, 2026 With 0.4925 USD Dividend Per Share - Moomoo — Moomoo neutral
- NEWS Northwest Natural Gas initiated with a Hold at Freedom Broker - TipRanks — TipRanks neutral
- NEWS Northwest Natural Gas (NYSE:NWN) Upgraded by Freedom Capital to "Hold" Rating - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
Generated 2026-07-06T04:40:27Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicOregon88%10-K Item 1: 'Approximately 88% of customers are located in Oregon and 12% are located in southwest Washington.'
- HIGHregulatoryOPUC10-K Item 1: 'The NWN Gas Utility business is subject to regulation by the OPUC and WUTC.'
- HIGHSuppliersingle interstate transmission pipeline10-K Item 1: 'NW Natural's gas distribution system is reliant on a single, bi-directional interstate transmission pipeline'
- HIGHCustomerPortland General Electric10-K Item 1: 'is dedicated solely to Portland General Electric (PGE) under a 30-year contract'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Revenue shrinking — -0.8% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $49.73, A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Oregon (88.0%); Concentration risk — Regulatory: OPUC. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $47.43. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $50.02 (+0.6% upside). Prior stop was $47.43. Stop-loss: $47.43.
Concentration risk — Geographic: Oregon (88.0%); Concentration risk — Regulatory: OPUC; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Northwest Natural Holding Compa trades at a P/E of 17.0 (forward 15.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
11 analysts cover NWN with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $58.
What does Northwest Natural Holding Compa do?NW Natural Holding operates regulated natural gas distribution through ~810,000 meters in Oregon and southwest...
NW Natural Holding operates regulated natural gas distribution through ~810,000 meters in Oregon and southwest Washington, plus ~90,000 meters in Texas (SiEnergy, acquired 2025). Revenue flows from authorized cost-of-service rates; residential and commercial customers generate ~91% of NWN Gas Utility margin. The Mist storage facility (21.6 Bcf) includes a 30-year exclusive agreement with Portland General Electric.