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NVONovo Nordisk A/SSell5.3·$45.89-1.78%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Novo Nordisk is a large-cap pharmaceutical company with exceptional 71% return on equity, 37% net margins, and 24% revenue growth, but a confirmed long-term downtrend, elevated put/call ratio of 4.95, and consecutive earnings misses create near-term caution.

Thesis pillars

  • Elite Margins And ReturnsStable
  • Earnings Miss Streak DecelerationStable
  • Confirmed Long Term DowntrendDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) Stock Analysis

SellValueQualityModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $45.89 — A.R:R is negative (-1.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Weak growth.

Novo Nordisk A/S, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research and development, manufacture, and distribution of pharmaceutical products. It operates through two segments, Obesity and Diabetes Care, and Rare Disease. The Obesity and Diabetes care segment provides... Read more

$45.89-10.5% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#14 of 16 Drug Manufacturers - General
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield18.41%
IncomeYield3.87%(5y avg 1.79%)Payout44.46%sustainable
Stop $42.68Target $51.08(resistance)A.R:R -1.3:1
Analyst target$47.22+2.9%12 analysts
$51.08our TP
$45.89price
$47.22mean
$40
$64

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $45.89 — A.R:R is negative (-1.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 81d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 4, 202681d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Weak growth
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.5
P/E (Fwd)13.9
Mkt Cap$204.7B
EV/EBITDA1.7
Profit Mgn35.3%
ROE59.8%
Rev Growth2.1%
Beta0.35
Dividend3.87%
Rating analysts37

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.16bullish
IV43%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
3.0

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
2.3
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 1.6<4.5A.R:R -1.3=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 81d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
38 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $43.68Resistance $52.12

Price Targets

$43
$51
A.Upside-10.5%
A.R:R-1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-10.5% upside)
! momentum at 1.6 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-04 (81d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NVO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $45.89 — A.R:R is negative (-1.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $42.68. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NVO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $51.08 (-10.5% upside). Prior stop was $42.68. Stop-loss: $42.68.

What are the risks of investing in NVO?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth; Negative momentum.

Is NVO overvalued or undervalued?

Novo Nordisk A/S trades at a P/E of 11.5 (forward 13.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NVO?

37 analysts cover NVO with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $47.

What does Novo Nordisk A/S do?Novo Nordisk A/S, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research and development, manufacture, and...

Novo Nordisk A/S, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research and development, manufacture, and distribution of pharmaceutical products. It operates through two segments, Obesity and Diabetes Care, and Rare Disease. The Obesity and Diabetes care segment provides products for diabetes, obesity, cardiovascular, and other emerging therapy areas. The Rare Disease segment offers products in the areas of rare blood disorders, rare endocrine disorders, and hormone replacement therapy. The company also provides NovoPen 6 and NovoPen Echo Plus, smart insulin pens; Dose Check, an insulin dose guidance application; growth hormone pens and injection needles; and Wegovy pill an oral glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist therapy for weight management. It operates in Europe, Canada, the United States, Japan, Korea, Oceania, Southeast Asia, Mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa. Novo Nordisk A/S was founded in 1923 and is headquartered in Bagsvaerd, Denmark.

Related stocks: BMY (Bristol-Myers Squibb Company) · ABBV (AbbVie Inc.) · LLY (Eli Lilly and Company) · AMGN (Amgen Inc.) · GILD (Gilead Sciences, Inc.)
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