Skip to main content
NOAHNoah Holdings LimitedHold6.6·$8.57-0.81%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

NOAH combines a strong earnings beat streak, a 40% margin of safety, and elite balance-sheet quality with a confirmed technical downtrend and failed momentum and asymmetry gates, making it a hold-not-add position.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Valuation Margin Of SafetyStable
  • Strong Earnings Beat StreakStable
  • Strong Piotroski Quality ScoreStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Noah Holdings Limited (NOAH) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup · Inst Constrain edge

HoldValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $8.57, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: mixed signals — some dimensions strong, others weak.

Noah Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a wealth and asset management service provider with the focus on investment and asset allocation services for high net worth individuals and corporate entities in Mainland of China, Hong Kong, and... Read more

$8.57+22.0% A.UpsideScore 6.6/10#19 of 239 Asset Management
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield7.81%Payout54.44%sustainable
Stop $8.01Target $10.45(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.8:1
Analyst target$12.30+43.5%4 analysts
$10.45our TP
$8.57price
$12.30mean
$14

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $8.57, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: mixed signals — some dimensions strong, others weak. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 33d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-25

Recent Developments — Noah Holdings Limited

Generated 2026-07-25T11:07:04Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 26, 202633d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
No bear case signals

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.9
P/E (Fwd)5.6
Mkt Cap$593M
EV/EBITDA-4.5
Profit Mgn20.4%
ROE5.3%
Rev Growth1.8%
Beta0.78
Dividend7.81%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C12.33bearish
IV112%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.7>=4.5A.R:R 1.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 33d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
67 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $7.51Resistance $9.08

Price Targets

$8
$10
A.Upside+22.0%
A.R:R1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-26 (33d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NOAH stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $8.57, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: mixed signals — some dimensions strong, others weak. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $10.45 (+21.9%), stop $8.01 (−7.0%), A.R:R 1.8:1. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NOAH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $10.45 (+22.0% upside). Target $10.45 (+21.9%), stop $8.01 (−7.0%), A.R:R 1.8:1. Stop-loss: $8.01.

Is NOAH overvalued or undervalued?

Noah Holdings Limited trades at a P/E of 7.9 (forward 5.6). TrendMatrix value score: 9.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about NOAH?

10 analysts cover NOAH with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $12.

What does Noah Holdings Limited do?Noah Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a wealth and asset management service provider with...

Noah Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a wealth and asset management service provider with the focus on investment and asset allocation services for high net worth individuals and corporate entities in Mainland of China, Hong Kong, and internationally. It operates through Domestic Public Securities, Domestic Asset Management, Domestic Insurance, Overseas Wealth Management, Overseas Asset Management, and Overseas Insurance and Comprehensive Services segments. The company offers mutual fund products, which are publicly-raised, public securities investment funds, including money market funds; private secondary products; private equity products; investor education; trust services; and insurance products by referring clients, as well as individual whole life insurance, participating insurance, and individual health insurance products. It also provides domestic and overseas private equity, FOFs, public securities, real estate, and multi-strategy and other investments, as well as manages feeder funds. Noah Holdings Limited was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Singapore.

Related stocks: PML (Pimco Municipal Income Fund II ) · PAX (Patria Investments Limited) · OTF (Blue Owl Technology Finance Cor) · TWN (Taiwan Fund, Inc. (The)) · WIW (Western Asset Inflation-Linked )
Home Stocks NOAH

Latest news

Latest News

Benzinga16d ago