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NOAHNoah Holdings LimitedHold6.3·$10.12+1.50%
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Noah Holdings Limited (NOAH) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $10.12, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 4.2%; Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Noah Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a wealth and asset management service provider with the focus on investment and asset allocation services for high net worth individuals and corporate entities in Mainland of China, Hong Kong, and... Read more

$10.12+4.2% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#25 of 240 Asset Management
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield6.88%Payout54.44%sustainable
Stop $9.60Target $10.45(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.8:1
Analyst target$12.30+21.5%4 analysts
$10.45our TP
$10.12price
$12.30mean
$14

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $10.12, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 4.2%; Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 53d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 26, 202653d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 40%
Risks
Thin upside margin: 4.2%
Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.0
P/E (Fwd)6.5
Mkt Cap$689M
EV/EBITDA-4.4
Profit Mgn20.4%
ROE5.3%
Rev Growth1.8%
Beta0.78
Dividend6.88%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.00bearish
IV152%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesMomentum 4.0<4.5A.R:R 0.8 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 53d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
47 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $9.90Resistance $10.59

Price Targets

$10
$10
A.Upside+3.3%
A.R:R0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 4.0 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.8 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-26 (53d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NOAH stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $10.12, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 4.2%; Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $10.45 (+3.3%), stop $9.60 (−5.4%), A.R:R 0.8:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NOAH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $10.45 (+4.2% upside). Target $10.45 (+3.3%), stop $9.60 (−5.4%), A.R:R 0.8:1. Stop-loss: $9.60.

What are the risks of investing in NOAH?

Thin upside margin: 4.2%; Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is NOAH overvalued or undervalued?

Noah Holdings Limited trades at a P/E of 9.0 (forward 6.5). TrendMatrix value score: 8.8/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about NOAH?

10 analysts cover NOAH with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $12.

What does Noah Holdings Limited do?Noah Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a wealth and asset management service provider with...

Noah Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a wealth and asset management service provider with the focus on investment and asset allocation services for high net worth individuals and corporate entities in Mainland of China, Hong Kong, and internationally. It operates through Domestic Public Securities, Domestic Asset Management, Domestic Insurance, Overseas Wealth Management, Overseas Asset Management, and Overseas Insurance and Comprehensive Services segments. The company offers mutual fund products, which are publicly-raised, public securities investment funds, including money market funds; private secondary products; private equity products; investor education; trust services; and insurance products by referring clients, as well as individual whole life insurance, participating insurance, and individual health insurance products. It also provides domestic and overseas private equity, FOFs, public securities, real estate, and multi-strategy and other investments, as well as manages feeder funds. Noah Holdings Limited was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Singapore.

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