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NOAHNoah Holdings LimitedHold6.6·$8.61+0.47%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

NOAH combines a strong earnings beat streak, a 40% margin of safety, and elite balance-sheet quality with a confirmed technical downtrend and failed momentum and asymmetry gates, making it a hold-not-add position.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Valuation Margin Of SafetyStable
  • Strong Earnings Beat StreakStable
  • Strong Piotroski Quality ScoreStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Noah Holdings Limited (NOAH) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

HoldValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $8.61, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Noah Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a wealth and asset management service provider with the focus on investment and asset allocation services for high net worth individuals and corporate entities in Mainland of China, Hong Kong, and... Read more

$8.61+19.3% A.UpsideScore 6.6/10#25 of 235 Asset Management
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield7.60%Payout54.44%sustainable
Stop $8.11Target $10.27(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 3.3:1
Analyst target$12.08+40.3%4 analysts
$10.27our TP
$8.61price
$12.08mean
$14

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $8.61, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-13
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 26, 202613d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.6
P/E (Fwd)5.6
Mkt Cap$588M
EV/EBITDA-4.5
Profit Mgn20.4%
ROE5.3%
Rev Growth1.8%
Beta0.80
Dividend7.60%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C3.67bearish
IV239%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesMomentum 5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 13d<=14d (soft)Momentum 5.0>=4.5A.R:R 3.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $8.14Resistance $8.95

Price Targets

$8
$10
A.Upside+19.3%
A.R:R3.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Analyst Consensus

Analysts10
Consensus4.0/5
Avg Target$12

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-26 (13d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NOAH stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $8.61, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $10.27 (+19.3%), stop $8.11 (−6.2%), A.R:R 3.3:1. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NOAH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $10.27 (+19.3% upside). Target $10.27 (+19.3%), stop $8.11 (−6.2%), A.R:R 3.3:1. Stop-loss: $8.11.

What are the risks of investing in NOAH?

Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is NOAH overvalued or undervalued?

Noah Holdings Limited trades at a P/E of 7.6 (forward 5.6). TrendMatrix value score: 9.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about NOAH?

10 analysts cover NOAH with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $12.

What does Noah Holdings Limited do?Noah Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a wealth and asset management service provider with...

Noah Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a wealth and asset management service provider with the focus on investment and asset allocation services for high net worth individuals and corporate entities in Mainland of China, Hong Kong, and internationally. It operates through Domestic Public Securities, Domestic Asset Management, Domestic Insurance, Overseas Wealth Management, Overseas Asset Management, and Overseas Insurance and Comprehensive Services segments. The company offers mutual fund products, which are publicly-raised, public securities investment funds, including money market funds; private secondary products; private equity products; investor education; trust services; and insurance products by referring clients, as well as individual whole life insurance, participating insurance, and individual health insurance products. It also provides domestic and overseas private equity, FOFs, public securities, real estate, and multi-strategy and other investments, as well as manages feeder funds. Noah Holdings Limited was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Singapore.

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