Value
9.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.6 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 5.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.18
- ▸Attractively valued
NOAH · Why this verdict
Why Noah Holdings (NOAH) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
NOAH combines a strong earnings beat streak, a 40% margin of safety, and elite balance-sheet quality with a confirmed technical downtrend and failed momentum and asymmetry gates, making it a hold-not-add position.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock screens as attractively valued with an estimated 40% margin of safety versus its underlying fundamental value. Bull case | The margin of safety should either be realized through price appreciation or should persist if intrinsic value estimates continue to hold over the next year. | →Stable |
| CounterMargin-of-safety estimates for Chinese wealth-management firms can be structurally wide due to regulatory and cross-border capital-flow risk that a pure valuation model does not capture. | ||
The company has beaten earnings in 3 of its last 4 quarters with an average surprise of over 12%, showing consistent execution. Earnings | The beat rate should remain above 50% over the next several quarters if the execution trend continues to hold. | →Stable |
| CounterA 3-of-4 beat streak can still mask a slowing underlying trend if the magnitude of beats is shrinking or guidance is being walked down. | ||
The business shows elite fundamental quality, with a Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 alongside strong 20% margins. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski F-Score should remain at or near its current 9/9 level over the next several quarters if quality is durable. | →Stable |
| CounterA perfect Piotroski score is a point-in-time snapshot and does not itself protect against a sudden regulatory or macro shock specific to Chinese financial-services names. | ||
Despite strong fundamentals, the stock is in a confirmed technical downtrend, trading below its 200-day moving average with a -2.4% monthly slope. Momentum breakdown | Price should reclaim and hold above the 200-day moving average if the downtrend is set to reverse over the next several months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterTechnical downtrends in fundamentally strong names can simply reflect macro or sector-wide de-rating rather than company-specific deterioration, and can reverse quickly. | ||
The engine's momentum and asymmetry gates both failed, with momentum at 4.0 versus a 4.5 threshold and an asymmetry ratio of 0.8 versus 1.5, signaling an unfavorable near-term setup. Engine gate (failed) | Both the momentum score and the asymmetry ratio should rise back above their respective thresholds if the setup is set to improve over the next few months. | →Stable |
| CounterGate failures this close to their thresholds (4.0 vs 4.5, 0.8 vs 1.5) represent narrow misses that could reverse on a single strong data point rather than reflecting deep structural weakness. | ||
The stock screens as attractively valued with an estimated 40% margin of safety versus its underlying fundamental value.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- The margin of safety should either be realized through price appreciation or should persist if intrinsic value estimates continue to hold over the next year.
CounterMargin-of-safety estimates for Chinese wealth-management firms can be structurally wide due to regulatory and cross-border capital-flow risk that a pure valuation model does not capture.
The company has beaten earnings in 3 of its last 4 quarters with an average surprise of over 12%, showing consistent execution.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat rate should remain above 50% over the next several quarters if the execution trend continues to hold.
CounterA 3-of-4 beat streak can still mask a slowing underlying trend if the magnitude of beats is shrinking or guidance is being walked down.
The business shows elite fundamental quality, with a Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 alongside strong 20% margins.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski F-Score should remain at or near its current 9/9 level over the next several quarters if quality is durable.
CounterA perfect Piotroski score is a point-in-time snapshot and does not itself protect against a sudden regulatory or macro shock specific to Chinese financial-services names.
Despite strong fundamentals, the stock is in a confirmed technical downtrend, trading below its 200-day moving average with a -2.4% monthly slope.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should reclaim and hold above the 200-day moving average if the downtrend is set to reverse over the next several months.
CounterTechnical downtrends in fundamentally strong names can simply reflect macro or sector-wide de-rating rather than company-specific deterioration, and can reverse quickly.
The engine's momentum and asymmetry gates both failed, with momentum at 4.0 versus a 4.5 threshold and an asymmetry ratio of 0.8 versus 1.5, signaling an unfavorable near-term setup.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Both the momentum score and the asymmetry ratio should rise back above their respective thresholds if the setup is set to improve over the next few months.
CounterGate failures this close to their thresholds (4.0 vs 4.5, 0.8 vs 1.5) represent narrow misses that could reverse on a single strong data point rather than reflecting deep structural weakness.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.1 |
| ROA | 3.1 |
| Gross margin | 7.3 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.4 |
| Moat | 6.1 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 23%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.1 |
| EPS growth | 8.4 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -2%
Momentum
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 3.3 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 3.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 8.9 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 34%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.5 |
| quality rank | 3.4 |
| growth rank | 3.9 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 8.0 |
| 52w position | 5.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.8 |
| days to cover | 8.8 |
| volatility | 5.5 |
| put call | 3.3 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 8.2 |
| debt equity | 10.0 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸High IV: 125%
Catalyst
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.7 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 7.6%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
V9 Gate blocked: Momentum 2.6 < 4.5 minimum; 50MA < 200MA with weak momentum (2.6) - hard block. Wait for improvement.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_DEEP_VALUE->V9:WEAK_MOMENTUMPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:2.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:84d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Financial Services:5/10:self_excluded
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.6<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.50
Upside
+14.0%
Downside
5.6%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 2.6<4.5 outcome against Value at 9.1 and asymmetric R:R of 2.50.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.1, Technical at 7.9, and Quality at 7.1; the weakest are Momentum at 2.6, Insider at 5.0, and Growth at 5.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.50 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifQuarterly earnings beat rate falls below 50% over the next 4 quarters, reversing the current 3-of-4 beat streak.
- P2Attractive Valuation Margin Of Safety
Trip ifMargin of safety compresses below 15% from the current 40%, eroding the valuation cushion.
- P3Strong Piotroski Quality Score
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 out of 9 from the current 9/9, signaling fundamental deterioration.
- P4Confirmed Technical Downtrend
Trip ifPrice rises above the 200-day moving average and stays above it for 2 consecutive weeks, reversing the confirmed downtrend.
- P5Failed Asymmetry Momentum Gates
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 4.5 and asymmetry ratio rises above 1.5, clearing both currently failed gates now at 4.0 and 0.8 respectively.