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NMRKNewmark Group, Inc.Buy Wait6.3·$15.39+2.26%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Newmark Group has delivered four consecutive earnings beats and 27% year-over-year revenue growth in commercial real estate services, but a confirmed death-cross technical pattern, weak momentum, and falling on-balance volume signal that near-term price recovery is not yet established.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Revenue Growth TrajectoryStable
  • Four Quarter Earnings Beat StreakStable
  • Death Cross Technical BlockageStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Newmark Group, Inc. (NMRK) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

Buy WaitGrowthModerate Confidence

Real Estate · Real Estate Services

Earnings in 3 days (2026-07-29). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $14.96. At $15.39 the A.R:R is 1.4:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $14.96 (50-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 9.8%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -0.5.

Newmark Group provides commercial real estate advisory and transaction services to institutional investors and corporate occupiers across capital markets, leasing, loan origination, servicing, property management, and occupier solutions. The company generated approximately $3.3... Read more

$15.39+9.8% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#3 of 19 Real Estate Services
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield3.79%
IncomeYield1.60%(5y avg 0.93%)Payout14.81%
Entry $14.96(50-day MA)Stop $14.22Target $16.89(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.4:1
Analyst target$19.42+26.2%6 analysts
$16.89our TP
$15.39price
$19.42mean
$22

Wait for pullback to $14.96. At $15.39 the A.R:R is 1.4:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $14.96 (50-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 9.8%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -0.5. Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 3d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-26
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 20263d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Thin upside margin: 9.8%
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.5
P/E (Fwd)7.1
Mkt Cap$3.8B
EV/EBITDA12.8
Profit Mgn4.3%
ROE11.6%
Rev Growth27.2%
Beta1.68
Dividend1.60%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.27bullish
IV70%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicUnited States
    10-K Item 1A: 'we derived the large majority of our total revenues on a consolidated basis for the year ended December 31, 2025 from our operations in the United States'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesMomentum 4.4<4.5A.R:R 1.4 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 3d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
47 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $14.66Resistance $16.13

Price Targets

$14
$15
$17
A.Upside+9.8%
A.R:R1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Earnings in 3 days - binary event risk
! momentum at 4.4 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 1.4 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (3d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NMRK stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $14.96. At $15.39 the A.R:R is 1.4:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $14.96 (50-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 9.8%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -0.5. Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $16.89 (+9.7%), stop $14.22 (−8.2%), A.R:R 1.4:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NMRK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $16.89 (+9.8% upside). Target $16.89 (+9.7%), stop $14.22 (−8.2%), A.R:R 1.4:1. Stop-loss: $14.22.

What are the risks of investing in NMRK?

Thin upside margin: 9.8%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -0.5.

Is NMRK overvalued or undervalued?

Newmark Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 18.5 (forward 7.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about NMRK?

13 analysts cover NMRK with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $19.

What does Newmark Group, Inc. do?Newmark Group provides commercial real estate advisory and transaction services to institutional investors and...

Newmark Group provides commercial real estate advisory and transaction services to institutional investors and corporate occupiers across capital markets, leasing, loan origination, servicing, property management, and occupier solutions. The company generated approximately $3.3 billion in revenues in 2025, with the top 10 clients representing about 9.1% of total consolidated revenue.

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