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NMRKNewmark Group, Inc.Sell6.1·$14.91+2.86%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Newmark Group has delivered four consecutive earnings beats and 27% year-over-year revenue growth in commercial real estate services, but a confirmed death-cross technical pattern, weak momentum, and falling on-balance volume signal that near-term price recovery is not yet established.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Revenue Growth TrajectoryStable
  • Four Quarter Earnings Beat StreakStable
  • Death Cross Technical BlockageStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Newmark Group, Inc. (NMRK) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Real Estate · Real Estate Services

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $14.91 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.

Newmark Group provides commercial real estate advisory and transaction services to institutional investors and corporate occupiers across capital markets, leasing, loan origination, servicing, property management, and occupier solutions. The company generated approximately $3.3... Read more

$14.91+15.2% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#4 of 18 Real Estate Services
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield24.39%
IncomeYield1.61%(5y avg 0.97%)Payout18.75%
Stop $13.87Target $17.18(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.0:1
Analyst target$19.75+32.5%6 analysts
$17.18our TP
$14.91price
$19.75mean
$22

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $14.91 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 54d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-04
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 29, 202654d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.2
P/E (Fwd)6.8
Mkt Cap$3.7B
EV/EBITDA12.2
Profit Mgn4.1%
ROE11.1%
Rev Growth17.0%
Beta1.67
Dividend1.61%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.19bullish
IV80%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicUnited States
    10-K Item 1A: 'we derived the large majority of our total revenues on a consolidated basis for the year ended December 31, 2025 from our operations in the United States'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Macd
1.7
Rsi
4.5
Volume
4.7
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 2.6<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 54d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
46 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $14.05Resistance $16.45

Price Targets

$14
$17
A.Upside+15.2%
A.R:R2.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.6 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-29 (54d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NMRK stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $14.91 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $13.87. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NMRK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $17.18 (+15.2% upside). Prior stop was $13.87. Stop-loss: $13.87.

What are the risks of investing in NMRK?

Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Negative momentum.

Is NMRK overvalued or undervalued?

Newmark Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 18.2 (forward 6.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NMRK?

13 analysts cover NMRK with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $20.

What does Newmark Group, Inc. do?Newmark Group provides commercial real estate advisory and transaction services to institutional investors and...

Newmark Group provides commercial real estate advisory and transaction services to institutional investors and corporate occupiers across capital markets, leasing, loan origination, servicing, property management, and occupier solutions. The company generated approximately $3.3 billion in revenues in 2025, with the top 10 clients representing about 9.1% of total consolidated revenue.

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