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NMRKNewmark Group, Inc.Hold6.2·$15.60-0.76%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Newmark Group has delivered four consecutive earnings beats and 27% year-over-year revenue growth in commercial real estate services, but a confirmed death-cross technical pattern, weak momentum, and falling on-balance volume signal that near-term price recovery is not yet established.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Revenue Growth TrajectoryStable
  • Four Quarter Earnings Beat StreakStable
  • Death Cross Technical BlockageStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Newmark Group, Inc. (NMRK) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Real Estate · Real Estate Services

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $15.60, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 8.3%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -0.5.

Newmark Group provides commercial real estate advisory and transaction services to institutional investors and corporate occupiers across capital markets, leasing, loan origination, servicing, property management, and occupier solutions. The company generated approximately $3.3... Read more

$15.60+8.3% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#2 of 19 Real Estate Services
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield3.71%
IncomeYield1.53%(5y avg 0.93%)Payout14.81%
Stop $14.64Target $16.89(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.0:1
Analyst target$19.42+24.5%6 analysts
$16.89our TP
$15.60price
$19.42mean
$22

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $15.60, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 8.3%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 58. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 23d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-07
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202623d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Thin upside margin: 8.3%
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -0.5
Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.4
P/E (Fwd)7.3
Mkt Cap$3.9B
EV/EBITDA13.0
Profit Mgn4.3%
ROE11.6%
Rev Growth27.2%
Beta1.68
Dividend1.53%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.38bullish
IV63%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicUnited States
    10-K Item 1A: 'we derived the large majority of our total revenues on a consolidated basis for the year ended December 31, 2025 from our operations in the United States'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.7
Support Resistance
1.8
52w Position
5.9
GatesA.R:R 1.0 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 23d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
58 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $14.26Resistance $15.90

Price Targets

$15
$17
A.Upside+8.3%
A.R:R1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 1.0 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (23d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NMRK stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $15.60, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 8.3%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 58. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $16.89 (+8.3%), stop $14.64 (−6.6%), A.R:R 1.0:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NMRK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $16.89 (+8.3% upside). Target $16.89 (+8.3%), stop $14.64 (−6.6%), A.R:R 1.0:1. Stop-loss: $14.64.

What are the risks of investing in NMRK?

Thin upside margin: 8.3%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -0.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is NMRK overvalued or undervalued?

Newmark Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 19.4 (forward 7.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about NMRK?

13 analysts cover NMRK with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $19.

What does Newmark Group, Inc. do?Newmark Group provides commercial real estate advisory and transaction services to institutional investors and...

Newmark Group provides commercial real estate advisory and transaction services to institutional investors and corporate occupiers across capital markets, leasing, loan origination, servicing, property management, and occupier solutions. The company generated approximately $3.3 billion in revenues in 2025, with the top 10 clients representing about 9.1% of total consolidated revenue.

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