Annaly Capital Management has delivered four consecutive earnings beats and strong 49% year-over-year growth, but its 89% Agency MBS concentration and current price above analyst consensus make the near-term risk-reward unfavorable for adding new exposure.
Thesis pillars
- Agency Mbs Concentration→Stable
- Four Quarter Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- Strong Revenue Growth→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NLY) Stock Analysis
Catalyst-Driven edge
Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $22.50, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Agency MBS (89.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Annaly Capital Management is a Maryland-incorporated mortgage REIT, founded in 1997, that invests primarily in Agency MBS (89% of portfolio at December 31, 2025) alongside residential credit and mortgage servicing rights. It earns net income from the spread between asset yields... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $22.50, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Agency MBS (89.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $22.56 has reached target $22.22. No upside to wait for. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 17d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — Annaly Capital Management Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Annaly Capital Management (NYSE:NLY) Receives "Buy" Rating from JonesTrading - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS NLY (Annaly Capital Management Inc.) posts solid Q4 2025 results, 87.3% YoY revenue gain pushes shares 1.07% higher. - R — Cổng thông tin điện tử tỉnh Tây Ninh positive
- NEWS Annaly Capital Management (NLY) laps the stock market: Here's why - MSN — MSN positive
- NEWS Annaly Capital Management (NLY) Reports Strong Q1 Earnings with $0.76 EAD - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS Annaly Capital Management (NLY) Outperforms Broader Market: What You Need to Know - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
Generated 2026-07-06T06:30:28Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductAgency MBS89%10-K Item 1: 'Agency (1)(2)| 89%| | 62%| | 87%| | 59%'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $22.50, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Agency MBS (89.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $22.56 has reached target $22.22. No upside to wait for. Target $22.22 (-1.2%), stop $19.94 (−12.8%), A.R:R -0.6:1. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $22.22 (+7.3% upside). Target $22.22 (-1.2%), stop $19.94 (−12.8%), A.R:R -0.6:1. Stop-loss: $19.94.
Concentration risk — Product: Agency MBS (89.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Annaly Capital Management Inc. trades at a P/E of 7.3 (forward 7.5). TrendMatrix value score: 4.7/10. Verdict: Hold.
17 analysts cover NLY with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $24.
What does Annaly Capital Management Inc. do?Annaly Capital Management is a Maryland-incorporated mortgage REIT, founded in 1997, that invests primarily in Agency...
Annaly Capital Management is a Maryland-incorporated mortgage REIT, founded in 1997, that invests primarily in Agency MBS (89% of portfolio at December 31, 2025) alongside residential credit and mortgage servicing rights. It earns net income from the spread between asset yields and borrowing costs, financing its portfolio with $81.9 billion of repurchase agreements outstanding at year-end 2025 and an economic leverage ratio of 5.6:1.