Annaly Capital Management has delivered four consecutive earnings beats and strong 49% year-over-year growth, but its 89% Agency MBS concentration and current price above analyst consensus make the near-term risk-reward unfavorable for adding new exposure.
Thesis pillars
- Agency Mbs Concentration↑Improving
- Four Quarter Earnings Beat Streak↑Improving
- Strong Revenue Growth↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NLY) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage
Wait for pullback to $21.39. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $22.49. Engine's entry $21.39 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Agency MBS (89.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Annaly Capital Management is a Maryland-incorporated mortgage REIT, founded in 1997, that invests primarily in Agency MBS (89% of portfolio at December 31, 2025) alongside residential credit and mortgage servicing rights. It earns net income from the spread between asset yields... Read more
Wait for pullback to $21.39. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $22.49. Engine's entry $21.39 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Agency MBS (89.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-6.3% upside). Wait for pullback. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 88d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-26Recent Developments — Annaly Capital Management Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Annaly Capital Management (NLY) Beats On Q2 Earnings, Is The Stock Still Cheap? - Yahoo! Finance Canada — Yahoo! Finance Canada positive
- NEWS Annaly Capital Management (NLY) Beats On Q2 Earnings, Is The Stock Still Cheap? - Yahoo Finance UK — Yahoo Finance UK positive
- NEWS Annaly Capital Management, Inc. Q2 2026 Earnings Call Summary - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Annaly Capital Management (NYSE:NLY) Receives "Buy" Rating from JonesTrading - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS NLY (Annaly Capital Management Inc.) posts solid Q4 2025 results, 87.3% YoY revenue gain pushes shares 1.07% higher. - R — Cổng thông tin điện tử tỉnh Tây Ninh positive
Generated 2026-07-26T10:02:08Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductAgency MBS89%10-K Item 1: 'Agency (1)(2)| 89%| | 62%| | 87%| | 59%'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $21.39. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $22.49. Engine's entry $21.39 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Agency MBS (89.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-6.3% upside). Wait for pullback. Target $23.01 (+2.3%), stop $20.52 (−9.6%), A.R:R -1.3:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $23.01 (-6.3% upside). Target $23.01 (+2.3%), stop $20.52 (−9.6%), A.R:R -1.3:1. Stop-loss: $20.52.
Concentration risk — Product: Agency MBS (89.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum.
Annaly Capital Management Inc. trades at a P/E of 5.4 (forward 7.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.1/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
17 analysts cover NLY with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $24.
What does Annaly Capital Management Inc. do?Annaly Capital Management is a Maryland-incorporated mortgage REIT, founded in 1997, that invests primarily in Agency...
Annaly Capital Management is a Maryland-incorporated mortgage REIT, founded in 1997, that invests primarily in Agency MBS (89% of portfolio at December 31, 2025) alongside residential credit and mortgage servicing rights. It earns net income from the spread between asset yields and borrowing costs, financing its portfolio with $81.9 billion of repurchase agreements outstanding at year-end 2025 and an economic leverage ratio of 5.6:1.