ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. (ARR) Stock Analysis
Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $16.49 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.
ARMOUR Residential REIT invests in Agency MBS (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae) using repurchase agreement leverage of 6–10x stockholders' equity, earning net interest income on a trading-securities portfolio. It is externally managed by ARMOUR Capital Management LP (ACM)... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $16.49 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent Developments — ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.
Latest news
- UBS Maintains Neutral on ARMOUR Residential REIT, Raises Price Target to $18 — benzinga Apr 24, 2026 positive
- Jones Trading Maintains Buy on ARMOUR Residential REIT, Lowers Price Target to $19 — benzinga Apr 23, 2026 neutral
- ARMOUR Residential REIT Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript — benzinga Apr 23, 2026 neutral
- ARMOUR Residential REIT Q1 Adj. EPS $0.76 Beats $0.74 Estimate, Sales $70.714M Miss $79.986M Estimate — benzinga Apr 22, 2026 neutral
- ARMOUR Residential REIT Q1 Sales $70.714M Miss $79.986M Estimate — benzinga Apr 22, 2026 negative
Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMcounterpartyBUCKLER47%10-K Item 1A: 'BUCKLER accounted for 47.0% and 45.7%, respectively, of our aggregate borrowings and had an amount at risk of 7.1% and 8.0%, respectively, of our total stockholders' equity'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-30Item 5.02LOWStockholders approved the Fourth Amended and Restated 2009 Stock Incentive Plan at the April 30, 2026 annual meeting, adding 1,000,000 authorized shares to the prior plan. Routine compensatory plan approval.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $16.49 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $15.93. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $17.21 (+4.7% upside). Prior stop was $15.93. Stop-loss: $15.93.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2; Consecutive earnings misses (4).
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. trades at a P/E of 6.6 (forward 5.4). TrendMatrix value score: 4.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
10 analysts cover ARR with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $18.
What does ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. do?ARMOUR Residential REIT invests in Agency MBS (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae) using repurchase agreement leverage...
ARMOUR Residential REIT invests in Agency MBS (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae) using repurchase agreement leverage of 6–10x stockholders' equity, earning net interest income on a trading-securities portfolio. It is externally managed by ARMOUR Capital Management LP (ACM) under a management agreement through December 2029 and has no employees.