ARMOUR Residential REIT looks cheap at 3.9x price-to-operating-cash-flow, but weak business quality (3.4/10, no moat), a confirmed downtrend and a string of earnings misses leave only 6.3% upside against 7.1% downside.
Thesis pillars
- Cheap Cash Flow Valuation↑Improving
- Weak Quality No Moat→Stable
- Confirmed Price Downtrend↓Deteriorating
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Nov 1, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 18, 2026
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. (ARR) Stock Analysis
Sector Rotation edge
Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.13: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.
ARMOUR Residential REIT holds a leveraged portfolio of Agency mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae, funded through repurchase agreements. The company is externally managed by ACM under a management agreement through December 31, 2029,... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.13: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/9 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 105d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated Oct 21, 2026Recent Developments — ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Armour Residential REIT (ARR) Q3 Earnings Lag Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 21, 2026 negative
- NEWS Armour Residential REIT: Q3 Earnings Snapshot - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 21, 2026 neutral
- NEWS ARMOUR Residential REIT : ARR Company Update - www.marketscreener.com — www.marketscreener.com Oct 21, 2026 neutral
- NEWS ARMOUR Residential REIT : ARR October 2026 Investor Presentation - www.marketscreener.com — www.marketscreener.com Oct 21, 2026 neutral
- NEWS ARMOUR Residential REIT Announces $0.24 November 2026 Dividend on Common Shares - Kalkine Media — Kalkine Media Oct 20, 2026 neutral
Latest item Oct 21, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T11:59:35Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMcounterpartyBUCKLER10-K Item 1A: 'BUCKLER accounted for 47.0% and 45.7%, respectively, of our aggregate borrowings and had an amount at risk of 7.1% and 8.0%, respectively, of our total stockholders' equity'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-30Item 5.02LOWStockholders approved the Fourth Amended and Restated 2009 Stock Incentive Plan at the April 30, 2026 annual meeting, increasing authorized shares by 1,000,000 (prior plan had 800,000 total, with 3,506 remaining as of March 19, 2026). No officer departure.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.13: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $11.66. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $13.23 (+9.1% upside). Prior stop was $11.66. Stop-loss: $11.66.
Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0).
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. trades at a P/E of 242.6 (forward 4.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
10 analysts rate ARR, with a consensus score of 3.7/5. 4 analysts publish price targets averaging $16.
What does ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. do?ARMOUR Residential REIT holds a leveraged portfolio of Agency mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by Fannie Mae,...
ARMOUR Residential REIT holds a leveraged portfolio of Agency mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae, funded through repurchase agreements. The company is externally managed by ACM under a management agreement through December 31, 2029, with annual contractual management fees of $47,748 thousand; ARMOUR has no direct employees.