NGL Energy Partners is a midstream MLP with attractive headline valuation metrics but deeply concerning quality — revenue declined 13%, quality score of 2.5 falls below the minimum threshold, and a dramatic $3.44 per unit earnings miss last quarter signals underlying business instability.
Thesis pillars
- Revenue Decline Quality Floor→Stable
- Catastrophic Earnings Miss↓Deteriorating
- Attractive Valuation Distorted Quality↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
NGL ENERGY PARTNERS LP (NGL) Stock Analysis
Energy · Oil & Gas Midstream
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $17.97: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.
NGL Energy Partners operates three segments, Water Solutions, Crude Oil Logistics and Liquids Logistics, transporting, treating and disposing of produced water, purchasing and transporting crude oil, and supplying natural gas liquids across the United States and Canada. The... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $17.97: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 80d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.
About NGL ENERGY PARTNERS LP
About NGL ENERGY PARTNERS LP
NGL Energy Partners' Water Solutions segment handled approximately 1.063 billion barrels of produced water during the year ended March 31, 2026 across the Delaware, DJ and Eagle Ford basins, operating what the company describes as the largest independent produced water transportation and disposal network in the United States. The company sold its refined-products and most of its wholesale-propane businesses in April 2025 as part of a multi-year strategy to become a pure-play water-solutions company, and closed a $950.0 million debt refinancing in March 2026 through a new seven-year term loan. NGL's Crude Oil Logistics segment centers on the Grand Mesa Pipeline, a 550-mile line moving crude from Weld County, Colorado to Cushing, Oklahoma, where the company operates a 3,626,000-barrel storage terminal.
NGL earns Water Solutions revenue through per-barrel fees for produced-water transportation and disposal under long-term, fixed-fee contracts with minimum volume commitments and acreage dedications, supplemented by sales of skim oil recovered during water processing and by solids-disposal and truck-washout services. Crude Oil Logistics earns margin-based revenue purchasing crude oil from producers and marketers and reselling it at refineries, pipeline injection stations and storage terminals, with profitability sensitive to whether crude markets are in contango or backwardation. Liquids Logistics supplies natural gas liquids to commercial, retail and industrial customers through five owned terminals, third-party storage and a leased railcar fleet, using back-to-back physical contracts and pre-sale agreements to lock in margin ahead of winter propane demand. Across all three segments, NGL emphasizes long-term, fee-based or margin-protected contract structures over spot exposure to reduce commodity-price sensitivity.
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Both of NGL's two largest segments carry meaningful customer concentration: Water Solutions generated 78% of its segment revenue from its ten largest customers during the year ended March 31, 2026, while Crude Oil Logistics generated 79% from its ten largest customers, and the 10-K states plainly that any loss of those customers or their contracts could have an adverse impact on financial results. Because these customers are described as large, publicly traded oil and gas companies with diversified acreage positions, the concentration risk is less about counterparty credit quality and more about contract-renewal and minimum-volume-commitment renegotiation risk each time a major producer's drilling program shifts basins or slows activity.
See also: Energy · Oil & Gas Midstream
From NGL ENERGY PARTNERS LP's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-15Recent Developments — NGL ENERGY PARTNERS LP
Latest news
- NEWS NGL Energy Partners is the best performing energy stock in the past month (XLE:NYSEARCA) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha positive
- NEWS MPLX grows with natural gas and NGL expansion, boosting distributions by 12.5% and offering strong yield potential. - Pl — Pluang positive
- NEWS NGL Energy Partners LP Hits New 52-Week High of $18.72 - Markets Mojo — Markets Mojo positive
- NEWS Is Keyera (TSX:KEY) Trading Near Intrinsic Value After Its Plains NGL Bet And Director Exits? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS NGL (NGL) Q4 2026 Earnings Call Transcript - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail neutral
Generated 2026-08-15T12:17:30Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomertop ten customers (Water Solutions segment)78%10-K Item 1: 'During the year ended March 31, 2026, 78% of the revenues of our Water Solutions segment were generated from our ten largest customers of the segment.'
- HIGHCustomertop ten customers (Crude Oil Logistics segment)79%10-K Item 1: 'During the year ended March 31, 2026, 79% of the revenues of our Crude Oil Logistics segment were generated from our ten largest customers of the segment.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $17.97: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $16.71. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $20.67 (+15.0% upside). Prior stop was $16.71. Stop-loss: $16.71.
Concentration risk — Customer: top ten customers (Water Solutions segment) (78.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top ten customers (Crude Oil Logistics segment) (79.0%); Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0).
NGL ENERGY PARTNERS LP trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 21.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
6 analysts cover NGL with a consensus score of 3.8/5.
What does NGL ENERGY PARTNERS LP do?NGL Energy Partners operates three segments, Water Solutions, Crude Oil Logistics and Liquids Logistics, transporting,...
NGL Energy Partners operates three segments, Water Solutions, Crude Oil Logistics and Liquids Logistics, transporting, treating and disposing of produced water, purchasing and transporting crude oil, and supplying natural gas liquids across the United States and Canada. The company's Water Solutions segment handled approximately 1.063 billion barrels of produced water in fiscal 2026 and generated 78% of its revenue from its ten largest customers, while Crude Oil Logistics generated 79% of its revenue from its ten largest customers. NGL closed a $950.0 million debt refinancing in March 2026 and