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NFLXNetflix, Inc.Buy Wait6.3·$77.61+4.61%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Netflix is a wide-moat entertainment platform with 48% return on equity, 29% operating margins, and 194% free cash flow conversion, experiencing a technical death cross that has pushed the stock to RSI 25 — creating a high-asymmetry entry opportunity for investors willing to tolerate near-term price weakness.

Thesis pillars

  • Exceptional Profitability MoatStable
  • Death Cross Low Rsi EntryStable
  • High Asymmetry RatioStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

Buy WaitDEATH CROSS (EXEMPT)VALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Communication Services · Entertainment

Wait for pullback to $74.81. Recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $77.61. Engine's entry $74.81 (1 ATR pullback) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Netflix, Inc. ("Netflix", the "Company", "registrant", "we", or "us") is one of the world's leading entertainment services offering TV series, films, games and live programming across a wide variety of genres and languages. Members can play, pause and resume watching as much as... Read more

$77.61+40.4% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#2 of 35 Entertainment
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield7.95%
Entry $74.81(1 ATR pullback)Stop $69.57Target $105.01(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 4.0:1
Analyst target$114.15+47.1%44 analysts
$105.01our TP
$77.61price
$114.15mean
$151

Wait for pullback to $74.81. Recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $77.61. Engine's entry $74.81 (1 ATR pullback) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 43. Growth is outpacing valuation and the technical setup has confirmed a breakout above resistance (PEG 1.46, quality 8.5/10, growth 8.3/10). | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, positive momentum, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 16, 202613d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Wide economic moat
Risks
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)25.0
P/E (Fwd)20.2
Mkt Cap$327.0B
EV/EBITDA23.2
Profit Mgn28.5%
ROE48.5%
Rev Growth16.2%
Beta1.49
DividendNone
Rating analysts58

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.06bearish
IV61%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-16Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 10, 20 [... truncated]
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesDeath cross exempted (quality + momentum high enough)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentEARNINGS PROXIMITY 13d<=14d (soft)Momentum 6.5>=5.5A.R:R 4.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Speculative
RSI
43 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $70.86Resistance $83.70

Price Targets

$70
$75
$105
A.Upside+35.3%
A.R:R4.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1.2%
Max %2.4%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-16 (13d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NFLX stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $74.81. Recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $77.61. Engine's entry $74.81 (1 ATR pullback) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 43. Growth is outpacing valuation and the technical setup has confirmed a breakout above resistance (PEG 1.46, quality 8.5/10, growth 8.3/10). | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $105.01 (+35.3%), stop $69.57 (−11.6%), A.R:R 4.0:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NFLX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $105.01 (+40.4% upside). Target $105.01 (+35.3%), stop $69.57 (−11.6%), A.R:R 4.0:1. Stop-loss: $69.57.

What are the risks of investing in NFLX?

Consecutive earnings misses (2); Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is NFLX overvalued or undervalued?

Netflix, Inc. trades at a P/E of 25.0 (forward 20.2). TrendMatrix value score: 5.5/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about NFLX?

58 analysts cover NFLX with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $114.

What does Netflix, Inc. do?Netflix, Inc. ("Netflix", the "Company", "registrant", "we", or "us") is one of the world's leading entertainment...

Netflix, Inc. ("Netflix", the "Company", "registrant", "we", or "us") is one of the world's leading entertainment services offering TV series, films, games and live programming across a wide variety of genres and languages. Members can play, pause and resume watching as much as they want, anytime, anywhere, and can change their plans at any time.

Related stocks: TKO (TKO Group Holdings, Inc.) · DIS (Walt Disney Company (The)) · LYV (Live Nation Entertainment, Inc.) · WBD (Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. - )
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