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NENoble Corporation plc ASell4.8·$45.40-3.26%
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Noble Corporation plc A (NE) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Drilling

Sell if holding. At $45.40, A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: ExxonMobil (19.7%); Concentration risk — Customer: BP (13.2%).

Noble Corporation is a leading offshore drilling contractor with a fleet of 36 mobile offshore drilling units (25 floaters, 11 jackups) operating globally across deepwater and ultra-harsh environments. Revenue is earned on dayrate contracts with international oil companies;... Read more

$45.40+17.2% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#9 of 10 Oil & Gas Drilling
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield5.16%
IncomeYield4.26%Payout139.86%at-risk
Stop $43.28Target $53.30(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$50.00+10.1%10 analysts
$53.30our TP
$45.40price
$50.00mean
$32
$59

Sell if holding. At $45.40, A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: ExxonMobil (19.7%); Concentration risk — Customer: BP (13.2%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 45d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202645d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Earnings estimates trending UP
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: ExxonMobil (19.7%)
Concentration risk — Customer: BP (13.2%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)32.8
P/E (Fwd)18.3
Mkt Cap$7.5B
EV/EBITDA8.8
Profit Mgn7.6%
ROE5.0%
Rev Growth-10.8%
Beta0.90
Dividend4.26%
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.06bullish
IV70%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerExxonMobil20%
    10-K Item 1: 'ExxonMobil, BP, and Petrobras accounted for approximately 19.7%, 13.2%, and 12.5% respectively, of our consolidated operating revenues for the year ended December 31, 2025'
  • HIGHCustomerBP13%
    10-K Item 1: 'ExxonMobil, BP, and Petrobras accounted for approximately 19.7%, 13.2%, and 12.5% respectively, of our consolidated operating revenues for the year ended December 31, 2025'
  • HIGHCustomerPetrobras13%
    10-K Item 1: 'ExxonMobil, BP, and Petrobras accounted for approximately 19.7%, 13.2%, and 12.5% respectively, of our consolidated operating revenues for the year ended December 31, 2025'
  • MEDIUMGeographicUS Gulf27%
    10-K Item 1A: 'operations in the US Gulf, Guyana, and the North Sea accounted for approximately 27.1%, 19.7%, and 16.9%, respectively, of our consolidated operating revenues for the year ended December 31, 2025'
  • HIGHGeographicGuyana20%
    10-K Item 1A: 'operations in the US Gulf, Guyana, and the North Sea accounted for approximately 27.1%, 19.7%, and 16.9%, respectively, of our consolidated operating revenues for the year ended December 31, 2025'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-16Item 5.02LOW
    Kristin Holth resigned as Director effective at commencement of 2026 Annual General Meeting; will not stand for re-election. No disagreement with Board cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -10.8% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Earnings Growth
4.4
Declining revenue: -11%

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
4.2
Earnings Timing
5.0
Erm
6.5
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.6
Growth Rank
2.2
Quality Rank
7.2
GatesA.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 4.5>=4.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 45d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
35 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $44.62Resistance $54.39

Price Targets

$43
$53
A.Upside+17.4%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.4% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (45d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $45.40, A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: ExxonMobil (19.7%); Concentration risk — Customer: BP (13.2%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $43.28. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $53.30 (+17.2% upside). Prior stop was $43.28. Stop-loss: $43.28.

What are the risks of investing in NE?

Concentration risk — Customer: ExxonMobil (19.7%); Concentration risk — Customer: BP (13.2%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is NE overvalued or undervalued?

Noble Corporation plc A trades at a P/E of 32.8 (forward 18.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NE?

20 analysts cover NE with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $50.

What does Noble Corporation plc A do?Noble Corporation is a leading offshore drilling contractor with a fleet of 36 mobile offshore drilling units (25...

Noble Corporation is a leading offshore drilling contractor with a fleet of 36 mobile offshore drilling units (25 floaters, 11 jackups) operating globally across deepwater and ultra-harsh environments. Revenue is earned on dayrate contracts with international oil companies; ExxonMobil, BP, and Petrobras accounted for 19.7%, 13.2%, and 12.5% of 2025 revenues respectively.

Related stocks: BORR (Borr Drilling Limited) · RIG (Transocean Ltd (Switzerland)) · PDS (Precision Drilling Corporation) · SOC (Sable Offshore Corp.) · NBR (Nabors Industries Ltd.)
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