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Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Drilling

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.15: Quality below floor (0.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10 and A.R:R 3.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 23%; Below-average business quality.

Sable Offshore Corp. acquired the Santa Ynez Unit (SYU) — 16 federal offshore oil and gas leases and three production platforms off Santa Barbara, California — from ExxonMobil in February 2024. Production was suspended from 2015 to May 2025 due to a 2015 pipeline leak;... Read more

$15.15+50.6% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#3 of 10 Oil & Gas Drilling
QualityF-score2 / 9FCF yield-28.20%
Stop $14.17Target $22.95(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 3.4:1
Analyst target$27.00+78.2%3 analysts
$22.95our TP
$15.15price
$27.00mean
$33

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.15: Quality below floor (0.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10 and A.R:R 3.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 23%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/7 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 82d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Sable Offshore Corp.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: California
Quality below floor (0.7 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)5.1
Mkt Cap$2.4B
EV/EBITDA-7.4
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-141.7%
Rev Growth
Beta-0.23
DividendNone
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F2/9

Options Flow

P/C0.60bullish
IV126%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicCalifornia
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our assets are located exclusively onshore and offshore in California, making us vulnerable to risks associated with having operations concentrated in this geographic area.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Current Ratio
0.3
Piotroski F
2.2
Moat
3.2
Cash-burning: FCF -52194% of revenueNo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9Quality concerns

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Bollinger
0.7
Support Resistance
1.3
Gap
5.0

Volatile — 6.7% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Short Interest
1.2
Debt Equity
2.7
Days To Cover
4.0
Put Call
9.3
High short interest justified: 23%High IV: 126%Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3M

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Value Rank
5.0
Growth Rank
5.0
GatesMomentum 7.6>=5.5A.R:R 3.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 82d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
59 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $12.11Resistance $15.71

Price Targets

$14
$23
A.Upside+51.5%
A.R:R3.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (0.7 < 4.0)

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-10 (82d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SOC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $15.15: Quality below floor (0.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.8/10 and A.R:R 3.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 23%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $14.17. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SOC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $22.95 (+50.6% upside). Prior stop was $14.17. Stop-loss: $14.17.

What are the risks of investing in SOC?

Concentration risk — Geographic: California; Quality below floor (0.7 < 4.0).

Is SOC overvalued or undervalued?

Sable Offshore Corp. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 5.1). TrendMatrix value score: 9.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SOC?

8 analysts cover SOC with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $27.

What does Sable Offshore Corp. do?Sable Offshore Corp. acquired the Santa Ynez Unit (SYU) — 16 federal offshore oil and gas leases and three production...

Sable Offshore Corp. acquired the Santa Ynez Unit (SYU) — 16 federal offshore oil and gas leases and three production platforms off Santa Barbara, California — from ExxonMobil in February 2024. Production was suspended from 2015 to May 2025 due to a 2015 pipeline leak; commercial oil sales depend on resuming pipeline transportation through Pipeline Segments 324 and 325, which require ongoing regulatory approvals.

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