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Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Drilling

Earnings in 7 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.88: Quality below floor (0.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 4.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 25%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Sable Offshore owns the Santa Ynez Unit (SYU), 16 federal leases and three offshore platforms off California, with associated onshore processing at Las Flores Canyon. Production restarted in May 2025 after a decade-long suspension from a 2015 pipeline spill, but material oil... Read more

$13.88+65.2% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#6 of 9 Oil & Gas Drilling
Stop $12.92Target $22.95(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 4.4:1
Analyst target$27.00+94.5%3 analysts
$22.95our TP
$13.88price
$27.00mean
$33

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.88: Quality below floor (0.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 4.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 25%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: California
Quality below floor (0.9 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)4.7
Mkt Cap$2.1B
EV/EBITDA-7.5
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-89.3%
Rev Growth
Beta-0.10
DividendNone
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F2/9

Options Flow

P/C0.65bullish
IV118%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicCalifornia
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our assets are located exclusively onshore and offshore in California, making us vulnerable to risks associated with having operations concentrated in this geographic area.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Current Ratio
0.5
Piotroski F
2.2
Moat
5.0
Cash-burning (FCF negative)No competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9Quality concerns

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
3.5
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MEarnings in 7 days

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
3.2
Rsi
4.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Value Rank
5.0
Growth Rank
5.0

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Bollinger
4.4
Support Resistance
5.2
Gap
6.0
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dA.R:R 4.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
55 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $11.99Resistance $15.92

Price Targets

$13
$23
A.Upside+65.3%
A.R:R4.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (0.9 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 2.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-07 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SOC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.88: Quality below floor (0.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 4.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 25%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $12.92. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SOC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $22.95 (+65.2% upside). Prior stop was $12.92. Stop-loss: $12.92.

What are the risks of investing in SOC?

Concentration risk — Geographic: California; Quality below floor (0.9 < 4.0).

Is SOC overvalued or undervalued?

Sable Offshore Corp. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 4.7). TrendMatrix value score: 9.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SOC?

9 analysts cover SOC with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $27.

What does Sable Offshore Corp. do?Sable Offshore owns the Santa Ynez Unit (SYU), 16 federal leases and three offshore platforms off California, with...

Sable Offshore owns the Santa Ynez Unit (SYU), 16 federal leases and three offshore platforms off California, with associated onshore processing at Las Flores Canyon. Production restarted in May 2025 after a decade-long suspension from a 2015 pipeline spill, but material oil sales require completing Pipeline Segments 324/325 restart or an offshore-to-ship strategy at ~$475M capital cost. Resources remain classified as contingent.

Related stocks: BORR (Borr Drilling Limited) · HP (Helmerich & Payne, Inc.) · PDS (Precision Drilling Corporation) · SDRL (Seadrill Limited) · RIG (Transocean Ltd (Switzerland))