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NAMSNewAmsterdam Pharma Company N.VSell5.3·$34.83-0.97%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

NewAmsterdam Pharma is a pre-profitability biotech with a single pipeline asset in obicetrapib and analysts seeing 64% upside, but the stock is in a technical falling-knife pattern with RSI at 25, 2 of 4 recent earnings misses, and cash burning at 260% of revenue — making the risk profile extremely asymmetric in both directions.

Thesis pillars

  • Single Asset Obicetrapib ConcentrationStable
  • Cash Burn And Solvency RiskStable
  • High Analyst Upside Target ConvictionStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

NewAmsterdam Pharma Company N.V (NAMS) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $34.83: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 1.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

NewAmsterdam Pharma is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing obicetrapib, an oral CETP inhibitor for LDL-C lowering, targeting patients with ASCVD and/or HeFH inadequately treated by existing therapies. The company has no approved products and reported a net loss... Read more

$34.83+24.3% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#87 of 258 Biotechnology
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-1.44%
Stop $32.39Target $43.29(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.6:1
Analyst target$49.76+42.9%14 analysts
$43.29our TP
$34.83price
$49.76mean
$59

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $34.83: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 1.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 33d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: speculative.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About NewAmsterdam Pharma Company N.V

About NewAmsterdam Pharma Company N.V

NewAmsterdam Pharma's entire value proposition rests on a single compound: obicetrapib, an oral CETP inhibitor targeting LDL-C reduction in patients with ASCVD and/or HeFH. Three pivotal Phase 3 trials completed between July 2024 and November 2024—BROADWAY (over 2,500 randomized patients), BROOKLYN (over 350 patients), and TANDEM—each met their primary endpoints. The company reported a net loss of $203.8 million for the year ended December 31, 2025, with an accumulated deficit of $762.4 million and $728.9 million in cash and marketable securities.

NewAmsterdam Pharma generates no product revenue; all operations are funded through equity and debt. The company has partnered with Menarini to commercialize obicetrapib in the majority of European countries, contingent on regulatory approval. In August 2025, the EMA accepted for review Marketing Authorization Applications submitted by Menarini for obicetrapib monotherapy and the fixed-dose combination with ezetimibe, with regulatory decisions anticipated in the second half of 2026. The company plans to pursue FDA approval independently in the United States, relying on third-party manufacturers for supply. A fourth Phase 3 program—PREVAIL, a cardiovascular outcomes trial enrolling at least 9,000 patients—completed enrollment in April 2024 and cannot conclude before the end of 2026 at the earliest, depending on MACE event accrual. The company also commenced a Phase 2a trial evaluating obicetrapib in early Alzheimer's disease patients carrying the ApoE4 variant, with initial data announced in September 2023.

Show full overview

The PREVAIL CVOT constitutes the dominant binary risk in NewAmsterdam Pharma's development timeline. While obicetrapib met its primary endpoints in BROADWAY, BROOKLYN, and TANDEM, PREVAIL must accumulate a specified number of MACE events before the trial concludes—meaning results may extend well beyond the end of 2026 depending on event accrual rates. If PREVAIL produces negative or inconclusive results, regulators may require further trials before granting NDA approval. The company's entire revenue-generating capacity depends on obicetrapib's approval, as it has no other clinical programs approaching commercialization.

See also: Healthcare · Biotechnology

From NewAmsterdam Pharma Company N.V's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06

Recent Developments — NewAmsterdam Pharma Company N.V

Generated 2026-07-06T06:50:34Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202633d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Pipeline: obicetrapib
Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-27.4
Mkt Cap$4.1B
EV/EBITDA-16.0
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-29.5%
Rev Growth2.1%
Beta0.08
DividendNone
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.20bullish
IV95%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHpipelineobicetrapib
    10-K Item 1A: 'We are dependent on the success of our only product candidate, obicetrapib'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-06-03Item 5.02LOW
    Shareholders approved the NewAmsterdam Pharma 2026 Employee Stock Purchase Plan (ESPP) at the June 2, 2026 annual general meeting. Eligible employees may purchase ordinary shares at a discount via payroll deductions over six-month purchase periods.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-24Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Louise Kooij, Chief Accounting Officer, agreed to depart effective August 31, 2026. Per separation agreement, Kooij will receive 12 months base salary, pro-rated 2026 bonus, and extended equity vesting through January 10, 2027. No successor named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.0
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.5
Support Resistance
2.1
52w Position
6.5

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Rule Of 40
3.0
Current Ratio
5.0
Moat
6.1
Piotroski F
6.7
Gross Margin
10.0
Cash-burning: FCF -260% of revenueRule of 40: -258 (fail)

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.9
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
GatesExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 7.3>=5.5A.R:R 1.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 33d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Speculative
RSI
77 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $29.09Resistance $36.34

Price Targets

$32
$43
A.Upside+24.3%
A.R:R1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (33d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NAMS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $34.83: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 1.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $32.39. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NAMS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $43.29 (+24.3% upside). Prior stop was $32.39. Stop-loss: $32.39.

What are the risks of investing in NAMS?

Concentration risk — Pipeline: obicetrapib; Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0).

Is NAMS overvalued or undervalued?

NewAmsterdam Pharma Company N.V trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -27.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NAMS?

22 analysts cover NAMS with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $50.

What does NewAmsterdam Pharma Company N.V do?NewAmsterdam Pharma is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing obicetrapib, an oral CETP inhibitor for...

NewAmsterdam Pharma is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing obicetrapib, an oral CETP inhibitor for LDL-C lowering, targeting patients with ASCVD and/or HeFH inadequately treated by existing therapies. The company has no approved products and reported a net loss of $203.8 million for the year ended December 31, 2025, with $728.9 million in cash. Menarini holds exclusive commercialization rights in most European countries if obicetrapib is approved.

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