MGIC Investment is a high-quality specialty insurance business with 60% net margins and a 3-out-of-4 earnings beat record, but the stock trades above analyst price targets with essentially no upside and declining revenues make the growth outlook challenging.
Thesis pillars
- Target Reached Below Trend→Stable
- High Margin Specialty Insurer→Stable
- Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
MGIC Investment Corporation (MTG) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Financial Services · Insurance - Specialty
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $28.23 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Weak overall score: 4.9/10.
MGIC Investment Corporation provides private mortgage insurance on low down payment residential loans purchased by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, generating $1.2 billion in total revenues and writing $60.2 billion in new insurance in 2025. The company held $81.2 billion in direct... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $28.23 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Weak overall score: 4.9/10. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 89. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 26d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
About MGIC Investment Corporation
About MGIC Investment Corporation
MGIC Investment Corporation wrote $60.2 billion in new insurance in 2025—up from $55.7 billion in 2024—and held $303.1 billion in direct primary insurance in force and $81.2 billion in direct primary risk in force at December 31, 2025. Total revenues reached $1.2 billion and net income was $738 million ($3.14 per diluted share) for the year. MGIC's principal mortgage insurance subsidiary is licensed in all 50 states, D.C., Puerto Rico, and Guam, with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac PMIERs and state insurance departments providing the dual primary regulatory framework.
MGIC generates premium revenue primarily through monthly mortgage insurance premiums—approximately 97% of 2025 NIW was on monthly premium plans—with rates set by LTV ratio, borrower credit score, DTI ratio, and other risk attributes. The portfolio skews toward higher-LTV loans: 53.8% of primary RIF carries LTV ratios in the 90.01-95.00% range and 17.5% above 95%. The substantial majority of NIW is written on loans delivered to or purchased by the GSEs, making MGIC's volume directly contingent on GSE purchase activity and PMIERs compliance. MGIC competes primarily with the FHA (34.3% of low down payment mortgages in 2025) and the VA (26.8%), as well as other private mortgage insurers. Reinsurance transactions reduce tail-risk and the Minimum Required Assets required under PMIERs; the credit risk associated with CRT program reinsurance totaled approximately $482 million at year-end 2025. The company returned approximately $915 million in capital to shareholders during 2025, including repurchasing 12% of shares outstanding at the beginning of the year.
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MGIC's dependence on the GSEs is the most structurally defining risk in the filing. The 10-K notes that the GSEs possess 'substantial market power' to influence PMIERs standards, coverage levels, cancellation practices, and alternative credit enhancement terms. At the extreme, the GSEs may suspend or terminate MGIC's eligibility to insure GSE-backed loans, which the 10-K notes would significantly reduce NIW volume since the substantial majority of the company's NIW is for loans delivered to or purchased by the GSEs. GSE reform discussions—including privatization and termination of FHFA's conservatorship—could alter the PMI industry structure in ways the filing characterizes as uncertain with no predictable Congressional timeline. Wisconsin, MGIC's domiciliary state, has begun the process of replacing current mortgage insurance regulations with the 2023 NAIC Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Model Act, with modifications expected before formal adoption.
See also: Financial Services · Insurance - Specialty
From MGIC Investment Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — MGIC Investment Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS MTG Reports Q1 Revenue of $297.08 Million, Exceeding Expectations - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS MGIC Investment (MTG) Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS MGIC INVESTMENT|WI ($MTG) Releases Q1 2026 Earnings - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative neutral
- NEWS MGIC Investment (NYSE:MTG) Misses Q1 CY2026 Revenue Estimates - TradingView — TradingView negative
- NEWS MGIC Investment (NYSE: MTG) Q1 2026 earnings, capital return and new $750M buyback - Stock Titan — Stock Titan positive
Generated 2026-07-06T06:30:28Z.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -3.0% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $28.23 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Weak overall score: 4.9/10. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 89. Prior stop was $27.11. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $27.85 (-1.3% upside). Prior stop was $27.11. Stop-loss: $27.11.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak overall score: 4.9/10; Weak growth.
MGIC Investment Corporation trades at a P/E of 9.0 (forward 8.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
14 analysts cover MTG with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $29.
What does MGIC Investment Corporation do?MGIC Investment Corporation provides private mortgage insurance on low down payment residential loans purchased by...
MGIC Investment Corporation provides private mortgage insurance on low down payment residential loans purchased by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, generating $1.2 billion in total revenues and writing $60.2 billion in new insurance in 2025. The company held $81.2 billion in direct primary risk in force at year-end 2025 across all 50 U.S. states, with volumes directly dependent on GSE purchase activity and PMIERs eligibility requirements.