MGIC Investment is a high-quality specialty insurance business with 60% net margins and a 3-out-of-4 earnings beat record, but the stock trades above analyst price targets with essentially no upside and declining revenues make the growth outlook challenging.
Thesis pillars
- Target Reached Below Trend→Stable
- High Margin Specialty Insurer→Stable
- Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
MGIC Investment Corporation (MTG) Stock Analysis
Financial Services · Insurance - Specialty
Wait for pullback to $28.11. BUY gates pass at $31.16, but analyst target reached - limited upside remaining and near 52-week high (2.3% away) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $28.11 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.
MGIC Investment Corporation provides private mortgage insurance on low down payment residential loans purchased by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, generating $1.2 billion in total revenues and writing $60.2 billion in new insurance in 2025. The company held $81.2 billion in direct... Read more
Wait for pullback to $28.11. BUY gates pass at $31.16, but analyst target reached - limited upside remaining and near 52-week high (2.3% away) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $28.11 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-13.4% upside). Wait for pullback. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 74d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About MGIC Investment Corporation
About MGIC Investment Corporation
MGIC Investment Corporation wrote $60.2 billion in new insurance in 2025—up from $55.7 billion in 2024—and held $303.1 billion in direct primary insurance in force and $81.2 billion in direct primary risk in force at December 31, 2025. Total revenues reached $1.2 billion and net income was $738 million ($3.14 per diluted share) for the year. MGIC's principal mortgage insurance subsidiary is licensed in all 50 states, D.C., Puerto Rico, and Guam, with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac PMIERs and state insurance departments providing the dual primary regulatory framework.
MGIC generates premium revenue primarily through monthly mortgage insurance premiums—approximately 97% of 2025 NIW was on monthly premium plans—with rates set by LTV ratio, borrower credit score, DTI ratio, and other risk attributes. The portfolio skews toward higher-LTV loans: 53.8% of primary RIF carries LTV ratios in the 90.01-95.00% range and 17.5% above 95%. The substantial majority of NIW is written on loans delivered to or purchased by the GSEs, making MGIC's volume directly contingent on GSE purchase activity and PMIERs compliance. MGIC competes primarily with the FHA (34.3% of low down payment mortgages in 2025) and the VA (26.8%), as well as other private mortgage insurers. Reinsurance transactions reduce tail-risk and the Minimum Required Assets required under PMIERs; the credit risk associated with CRT program reinsurance totaled approximately $482 million at year-end 2025. The company returned approximately $915 million in capital to shareholders during 2025, including repurchasing 12% of shares outstanding at the beginning of the year.
Show full overview
MGIC's dependence on the GSEs is the most structurally defining risk in the filing. The 10-K notes that the GSEs possess 'substantial market power' to influence PMIERs standards, coverage levels, cancellation practices, and alternative credit enhancement terms. At the extreme, the GSEs may suspend or terminate MGIC's eligibility to insure GSE-backed loans, which the 10-K notes would significantly reduce NIW volume since the substantial majority of the company's NIW is for loans delivered to or purchased by the GSEs. GSE reform discussions—including privatization and termination of FHFA's conservatorship—could alter the PMI industry structure in ways the filing characterizes as uncertain with no predictable Congressional timeline. Wisconsin, MGIC's domiciliary state, has begun the process of replacing current mortgage insurance regulations with the 2023 NAIC Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Model Act, with modifications expected before formal adoption.
See also: Financial Services · Insurance - Specialty
From MGIC Investment Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-15Recent Developments — MGIC Investment Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS MGIC Investment Corporation Revenue Breakdown – BIVA:MTG - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS MGIC Investment’s (NYSE:MTG) Q2 CY2026 Earnings Results: Revenue In Line With Expectations - StockStory — StockStory positive
- NEWS MGIC Investment’s (NYSE:MTG) Q2 CY2026 Earnings Results: Revenue In Line With Expectations - stockstory.org — stockstory.org neutral
- NEWS MGIC Investment (MTG) Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates - Yahoo Finance Australia — Yahoo Finance Australia positive
- NEWS MGIC Investment (MTG) Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates - au.finance.yahoo.com — au.finance.yahoo.com positive
Generated 2026-08-15T13:12:18Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Revenue shrinking — -2.9% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $28.11. BUY gates pass at $31.16, but analyst target reached - limited upside remaining and near 52-week high (2.3% away) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $28.11 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-13.4% upside). Wait for pullback. Target $35.83 (+15.0%), stop $26.62 (−17.1%), A.R:R -1.5:1. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $35.83 (-13.4% upside). Target $35.83 (+15.0%), stop $26.62 (−17.1%), A.R:R -1.5:1. Stop-loss: $26.62.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.3% away); Weak growth.
MGIC Investment Corporation trades at a P/E of 9.7 (forward 9.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
13 analysts cover MTG with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $31.
What does MGIC Investment Corporation do?MGIC Investment Corporation provides private mortgage insurance on low down payment residential loans purchased by...
MGIC Investment Corporation provides private mortgage insurance on low down payment residential loans purchased by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, generating $1.2 billion in total revenues and writing $60.2 billion in new insurance in 2025. The company held $81.2 billion in direct primary risk in force at year-end 2025 across all 50 U.S. states, with volumes directly dependent on GSE purchase activity and PMIERs eligibility requirements.