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MGIC Investment Corporation (MTG) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Specialty

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $26.07, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: GSEs; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

MGIC Investment provides private mortgage insurance (PMI), credit risk management, and ancillary services through wholly-owned subsidiaries including Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corporation (MGIC). In 2025, primary NIW was $60.2B with $303.1B direct IIF and $1.2B total revenues.... Read more

$26.07+10.4% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#9 of 10 Insurance - Specialty
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield8.58%
IncomeYield2.30%(5y avg 2.15%)Payout18.41%sustainable
Stop $24.76Target $28.77(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$28.80+10.5%5 analysts
$28.77our TP
$26.07price
$28.80mean
$30

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $26.07, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: GSEs; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 24, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Val6.4Qual7.4Grw2.0Mom1.9Sent5.6Ins3.8Peer4.4Tech7.7Risk5.94.9OVERALL

Recent Developments — MGIC Investment Corporation

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.4 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: GSEs
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Weak overall score: 4.9/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.3
P/E (Fwd)7.9
Mkt Cap$5.5B
EV/EBITDA6.3
Profit Mgn59.6%
ROE14.1%
Rev Growth-3.0%
Beta0.70
Dividend2.30%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.62bearish
IV43%normal
Max Pain$15-42.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerGSEs
    10-K Item 1A: 'The substantial majority of our new insurance written ("NIW") is for loans purchased by the GSEs'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Volume
1.2
Macd
2.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 24, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.7%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Revenue shrinking — -3.0% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.8
Earnings Growth
2.3
Declining revenue: -3%
GatesMomentum 1.9<4.5A.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
24 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $25.53Resistance $29.36

Price Targets

$25
$29
A.Upside+10.4%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.9% upside)
! Momentum score 1.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MTG stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $26.07, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: GSEs; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 24, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $28.77 (+10.4%), stop $24.76 (−5.3%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MTG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $28.77 (+10.4% upside). Target $28.77 (+10.4%), stop $24.76 (−5.3%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Stop-loss: $24.76.

What are the risks of investing in MTG?

Concentration risk — Customer: GSEs; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak overall score: 4.9/10.

Is MTG overvalued or undervalued?

MGIC Investment Corporation trades at a P/E of 8.3 (forward 7.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MTG?

13 analysts cover MTG with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $29.

What does MGIC Investment Corporation do?MGIC Investment provides private mortgage insurance (PMI), credit risk management, and ancillary services through...

MGIC Investment provides private mortgage insurance (PMI), credit risk management, and ancillary services through wholly-owned subsidiaries including Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corporation (MGIC). In 2025, primary NIW was $60.2B with $303.1B direct IIF and $1.2B total revenues. The vast majority of NIW insures loans purchased by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

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