MGIC Investment is a high-quality specialty insurance business with 60% net margins and a 3-out-of-4 earnings beat record, but the stock trades above analyst price targets with essentially no upside and declining revenues make the growth outlook challenging.
Thesis pillars
- Target Reached Below Trend↓Deteriorating
- High Margin Specialty Insurer→Stable
- Earnings Beat Streak↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 25, 2026· older than 90 days
MGIC Investment Corporation (MTG) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Financial Services · Insurance - Specialty
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $29.35, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth.
MGIC Investment Corporation provides private mortgage insurance on low down payment residential loans purchased by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, generating $1.2 billion in total revenues and writing $60.2 billion in new insurance in 2025. The company held $81.2 billion in direct... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $29.35, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Under M&A bid. Hold for deal completion or sell if spread < 3%. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 94d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About MGIC Investment Corporation
About MGIC Investment Corporation
MGIC Investment Corporation wrote $60.2 billion in new insurance in 2025—up from $55.7 billion in 2024—and held $303.1 billion in direct primary insurance in force and $81.2 billion in direct primary risk in force at December 31, 2025. Total revenues reached $1.2 billion and net income was $738 million ($3.14 per diluted share) for the year. MGIC's principal mortgage insurance subsidiary is licensed in all 50 states, D.C., Puerto Rico, and Guam, with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac PMIERs and state insurance departments providing the dual primary regulatory framework.
MGIC generates premium revenue primarily through monthly mortgage insurance premiums—approximately 97% of 2025 NIW was on monthly premium plans—with rates set by LTV ratio, borrower credit score, DTI ratio, and other risk attributes. The portfolio skews toward higher-LTV loans: 53.8% of primary RIF carries LTV ratios in the 90.01-95.00% range and 17.5% above 95%. The substantial majority of NIW is written on loans delivered to or purchased by the GSEs, making MGIC's volume directly contingent on GSE purchase activity and PMIERs compliance. MGIC competes primarily with the FHA (34.3% of low down payment mortgages in 2025) and the VA (26.8%), as well as other private mortgage insurers. Reinsurance transactions reduce tail-risk and the Minimum Required Assets required under PMIERs; the credit risk associated with CRT program reinsurance totaled approximately $482 million at year-end 2025. The company returned approximately $915 million in capital to shareholders during 2025, including repurchasing 12% of shares outstanding at the beginning of the year.
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MGIC's dependence on the GSEs is the most structurally defining risk in the filing. The 10-K notes that the GSEs possess 'substantial market power' to influence PMIERs standards, coverage levels, cancellation practices, and alternative credit enhancement terms. At the extreme, the GSEs may suspend or terminate MGIC's eligibility to insure GSE-backed loans, which the 10-K notes would significantly reduce NIW volume since the substantial majority of the company's NIW is for loans delivered to or purchased by the GSEs. GSE reform discussions—including privatization and termination of FHFA's conservatorship—could alter the PMI industry structure in ways the filing characterizes as uncertain with no predictable Congressional timeline. Wisconsin, MGIC's domiciliary state, has begun the process of replacing current mortgage insurance regulations with the 2023 NAIC Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Model Act, with modifications expected before formal adoption.
See also: Financial Services · Insurance - Specialty
From MGIC Investment Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Oct 29, 2026Recent Developments — MGIC Investment Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS MGIC Investment Corporation Announces Quarterly Dividend - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 29, 2026 neutral
- NEWS MGIC Investment (MTG) Expected to Post Quarterly Earnings on Wednesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Analysts Estimate MGIC Investment (MTG) to Report a Decline in Earnings: What to Look Out for - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 28, 2026 negative
- NEWS MTG Q3'26 Earnings: revenue estimate is 298.66M USD - TradingView — TradingView Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS MGIC Investment Corp (MTG) Stock Down 8.5% -- Now Undervalued? G - GuruFocus — GuruFocus Sep 30, 2026 negative
Latest item Oct 29, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-06T11:53:12Z.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Revenue shrinking — -2.9% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $29.35, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Under M&A bid. Hold for deal completion or sell if spread < 3%. Analyst target $26.39 reached (−10.1%), stop $27.81 (−5.5%), A.R:R -1.1:1. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $26.39 reached (−10.1% from $29.35); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $26.39 reached (−10.1%), stop $27.81 (−5.5%), A.R:R -1.1:1. Stop-loss: $27.81.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth; Under M&A bid - upside capped at deal spread, deal failure risk.
MGIC Investment Corporation trades at a P/E of 9.1 (forward 8.5). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Hold.
14 analysts rate MTG, with a consensus score of 2.6/5. 6 analysts publish price targets averaging $30.
What does MGIC Investment Corporation do?MGIC Investment Corporation provides private mortgage insurance on low down payment residential loans purchased by...
MGIC Investment Corporation provides private mortgage insurance on low down payment residential loans purchased by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, generating $1.2 billion in total revenues and writing $60.2 billion in new insurance in 2025. The company held $81.2 billion in direct primary risk in force at year-end 2025 across all 50 U.S. states, with volumes directly dependent on GSE purchase activity and PMIERs eligibility requirements.