MGIC Investment Corporation (MTG) Stock Analysis
Momentum Cont setup
Financial Services · Insurance - Specialty
Wait for pullback to $26.87. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $27.45. Engine's entry $26.87 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: GSEs; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
MGIC Investment provides private mortgage insurance (PMI), credit risk management, and ancillary services through wholly-owned subsidiaries including Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corporation (MGIC). In 2025, primary NIW was $60.2B with $303.1B direct IIF and $1.2B total revenues.... Read more
Wait for pullback to $26.87. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $27.45. Engine's entry $26.87 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: GSEs; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 53, MACD bullish. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-8.3% upside). Wait for pullback. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerGSEs10-K Item 1A: 'The substantial majority of our new insurance written ("NIW") is for loans purchased by the GSEs'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -0.9% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $26.87. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $27.45. Engine's entry $26.87 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: GSEs; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 53, MACD bullish. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-8.3% upside). Wait for pullback. Target $28.94 (+5.4%), stop $25.71 (−6.8%), Setup A.R:R 1.7:1. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $28.94 (+7.5% upside). Target $28.94 (+5.4%), stop $25.71 (−6.8%), Setup A.R:R 1.7:1. Stop-loss: $25.71.
Concentration risk — Customer: GSEs; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth.
MGIC Investment Corporation trades at a P/E of 9.3 (forward 8.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
12 analysts cover MTG with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $29.
What does MGIC Investment Corporation do?MGIC Investment provides private mortgage insurance (PMI), credit risk management, and ancillary services through...
MGIC Investment provides private mortgage insurance (PMI), credit risk management, and ancillary services through wholly-owned subsidiaries including Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corporation (MGIC). In 2025, primary NIW was $60.2B with $303.1B direct IIF and $1.2B total revenues. The vast majority of NIW insures loans purchased by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.