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MSEXMiddlesex Water CompanySell5.5·$58.31+0.70%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Middlesex Water shows strong positive momentum that has turned overbought, alongside a three-quarter earnings-miss streak and a negative cash-flow-quality flag despite an already-reached price target.

Thesis pillars

  • Overbought Positive MomentumDeteriorating
  • Consecutive Earnings MissesStable
  • Analyst Target ReachedStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Middlesex Water Company (MSEX) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthModerate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Water

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $58.31 — A.R:R is negative (-2.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4).

The terms "the Company," "we," "our," and "us" collectively refer to Middlesex Water Company (Middlesex) and its subsidiaries, including Tidewater Utilities, Inc. (Tidewater) and Tidewater's wholly-owned subsidiaries, Southern Shores Water Company, LLC (Southern Shores) and... Read more

$58.31-11.1% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#4 of 9 Utilities - Regulated Water
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-2.60%
IncomeYield2.49%(5y avg 1.88%)Payout54.83%sustainable
Stop $55.71Target $67.06(default +15%)A.R:R -2.2:1
Analyst target$61.00+4.6%2 analysts
$67.06our TP
$58.31price
$61.00mean
$56
$67

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $58.31 — A.R:R is negative (-2.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4). Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 57d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-03
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Oct 30, 202657d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Utilities): +1.0
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4)
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.4
P/E (Fwd)19.4
Mkt Cap$1.1B
EV/EBITDA15.8
Profit Mgn23.3%
ROE9.8%
Rev Growth14.3%
Beta0.73
Dividend2.49%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.44bullish
IV37%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Macd
0.6
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
1.1
Surprise Avg
2.6
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
6.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/2MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesMomentum 3.2<4.5A.R:R -2.2=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 57d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
50 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $56.27Resistance $59.80

Price Targets

$56
$67
A.Upside-11.1%
A.R:R-2.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-11.1% upside)
! News modifier -1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! momentum at 3.2 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-30 (57d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MSEX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $58.31 — A.R:R is negative (-2.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4). Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $55.71. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MSEX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $67.06 (-11.1% upside). Prior stop was $55.71. Stop-loss: $55.71.

What are the risks of investing in MSEX?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4); Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is MSEX overvalued or undervalued?

Middlesex Water Company trades at a P/E of 22.4 (forward 19.4). TrendMatrix value score: 5.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MSEX?

9 analysts cover MSEX with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $61.

What does Middlesex Water Company do?The terms "the Company," "we," "our," and "us" collectively refer to Middlesex Water Company (Middlesex) and its...

The terms "the Company," "we," "our," and "us" collectively refer to Middlesex Water Company (Middlesex) and its subsidiaries, including Tidewater Utilities, Inc. (Tidewater) and Tidewater's wholly-owned subsidiaries, Southern Shores Water Company, LLC (Southern Shores) and White Marsh Environmental Systems, Inc. (White Marsh).

Related stocks: YORW (The York Water Company) · CWT (California Water Service Group) · CWCO (Consolidated Water Co. Ltd.) · AWR (American States Water Company) · HTO (H2O America)
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