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MSEXMiddlesex Water CompanySell5.8·$58.40-0.81%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Middlesex Water shows strong positive momentum that has turned overbought, alongside a three-quarter earnings-miss streak and a negative cash-flow-quality flag despite an already-reached price target.

Thesis pillars

  • Overbought Positive MomentumStable
  • Consecutive Earnings MissesStable
  • Analyst Target ReachedDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Middlesex Water Company (MSEX) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthModerate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Water

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $58.40 — A.R:R is negative (-2.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2).

The terms "the Company," "we," "our," and "us" collectively refer to Middlesex Water Company (Middlesex) and its subsidiaries, including Tidewater Utilities, Inc. (Tidewater) and Tidewater's wholly-owned subsidiaries, Southern Shores Water Company, LLC (Southern Shores) and... Read more

$58.40-11.2% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#5 of 9 Utilities - Regulated Water
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-2.56%
IncomeYield2.45%(5y avg 1.88%)Payout54.83%sustainable
Stop $55.20Target $67.15(default +15%)A.R:R -2.0:1
Analyst target$61.00+4.5%2 analysts
$67.15our TP
$58.40price
$61.00mean
$56
$67

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $58.40 — A.R:R is negative (-2.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Oct 30, 202677d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Positive insider activity
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.6
P/E (Fwd)19.7
Mkt Cap$1.1B
EV/EBITDA15.9
Profit Mgn23.3%
ROE9.8%
Rev Growth14.3%
Beta0.73
Dividend2.45%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C8.50bearish
IV61%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
1.1
Surprise Avg
2.6
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
6.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/2MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesA.R:R -2.0=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.3>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
61 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $55.53Resistance $59.23

Price Targets

$55
$67
A.Upside-11.2%
A.R:R-2.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-11.2% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-30 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MSEX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $58.40 — A.R:R is negative (-2.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $55.20. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MSEX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $67.15 (-11.2% upside). Prior stop was $55.20. Stop-loss: $55.20.

What are the risks of investing in MSEX?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is MSEX overvalued or undervalued?

Middlesex Water Company trades at a P/E of 22.6 (forward 19.7). TrendMatrix value score: 5.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MSEX?

9 analysts cover MSEX with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $61.

What does Middlesex Water Company do?The terms "the Company," "we," "our," and "us" collectively refer to Middlesex Water Company (Middlesex) and its...

The terms "the Company," "we," "our," and "us" collectively refer to Middlesex Water Company (Middlesex) and its subsidiaries, including Tidewater Utilities, Inc. (Tidewater) and Tidewater's wholly-owned subsidiaries, Southern Shores Water Company, LLC (Southern Shores) and White Marsh Environmental Systems, Inc. (White Marsh).

Related stocks: YORW (The York Water Company) · CWT (California Water Service Group) · AWR (American States Water Company) · CWCO (Consolidated Water Co. Ltd.) · HTO (H2O America)
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