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MSMorgan StanleySell5.7·$213.93+0.98%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Morgan Stanley has delivered 4 consecutive earnings beats averaging 16.7% positive surprise and earns strong margins of 25%, but trades above analyst targets with a negative asymmetry ratio and an earnings report due in 29 days that could serve as a catalyst in either direction.

Thesis pillars

  • Leverage Near 52 Week HighStable
  • Earnings Beat Streak CatalystStable
  • High Quality MarginsStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Morgan Stanley (MS) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Capital Markets

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $213.93 — A.R:R is negative (-2.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 5.0): -1.5.

Morgan Stanley is a global financial services firm serving corporations, governments, financial institutions, and individuals through three segments: Institutional Securities, Wealth Management, and Investment Management. The firm operates globally from New York headquarters and... Read more

$213.93+5.6% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#28 of 49 Capital Markets
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield1.87%(5y avg 2.98%)Payout35.55%sustainable
Stop $201.77Target $225.86(resistance)A.R:R -2.2:1
Analyst target$207.62-3.0%21 analysts
$225.86our TP
$213.93price
$207.62mean
$165
$240

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $213.93 — A.R:R is negative (-2.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 5.0): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 15, 20269d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 5.0): -1.5
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.4
P/E (Fwd)16.6
Mkt Cap$337.4B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn24.8%
ROE16.4%
Rev Growth16.3%
Beta1.22
Dividend1.87%
Rating analysts32

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.32bearish
IV50%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.7
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
3.6
Growth Rank
4.2
Quality Rank
6.3
GatesMomentum 2.6<4.5A.R:R -2.2=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 9d<=14d (soft)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $205.83Resistance $230.47

Price Targets

$202
$226
A.Upside+5.6%
A.R:R-2.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-12.7% upside)
! momentum at 2.6 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-15 (9d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $213.93 — A.R:R is negative (-2.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 5.0): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $201.77. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $225.86 (+5.6% upside). Prior stop was $201.77. Stop-loss: $201.77.

What are the risks of investing in MS?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 5.0): -1.5; Negative momentum.

Is MS overvalued or undervalued?

Morgan Stanley trades at a P/E of 19.4 (forward 16.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MS?

32 analysts cover MS with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $208.

What does Morgan Stanley do?Morgan Stanley is a global financial services firm serving corporations, governments, financial institutions, and...

Morgan Stanley is a global financial services firm serving corporations, governments, financial institutions, and individuals through three segments: Institutional Securities, Wealth Management, and Investment Management. The firm operates globally from New York headquarters and offices in London, Frankfurt, Tokyo, and Hong Kong, regulated by the Federal Reserve as a financial holding company.

Related stocks: SCHW (Charles Schwab Corporation (The) · GS (Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The)) · IBKR (Interactive Brokers Group, Inc.) · HOOD (Robinhood Markets, Inc.)
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