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MSMorgan StanleyHold6.4·$217.25+2.56%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Morgan Stanley has delivered 4 consecutive earnings beats averaging 16.7% positive surprise and earns strong margins of 25%, but trades above analyst targets with a negative asymmetry ratio and an earnings report due in 29 days that could serve as a catalyst in either direction.

Thesis pillars

  • Leverage Near 52 Week HighDeteriorating
  • Earnings Beat Streak CatalystStable
  • High Quality MarginsStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Morgan Stanley (MS) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Capital Markets

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $217.25, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 5.2): -1.5.

Morgan Stanley is a global financial services firm serving corporations, governments, financial institutions, and individuals through three segments: Institutional Securities, Wealth Management, and Investment Management. The firm operates globally from New York headquarters and... Read more

$217.25-1.9% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#15 of 50 Capital Markets
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.17%(5y avg 2.98%)Payout32.31%sustainable
Stop $207.87Target $249.72(default +15%)A.R:R -0.4:1
Analyst target$236.62+8.9%21 analysts
$249.72our TP
$217.25price
$236.62mean
$184
$262

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $217.25, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 5.2): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.70, earnings proximity 40d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-04
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Oct 14, 202640d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.2 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 5.2): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.1
P/E (Fwd)15.9
Mkt Cap$341.0B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn25.9%
ROE18.0%
Rev Growth28.0%
Beta1.21
Dividend2.17%
Rating analysts33

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C4.49bearish
IV36%normal
Max Pain$260+19.7% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R -0.4=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.0>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70EARNINGS PROXIMITY 40d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
50 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $207.32Resistance $222.00

Price Targets

$208
$250
A.Upside-1.9%
A.R:R-0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-1.9% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-14 (40d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MS stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $217.25, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 5.2): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $249.72 (+14.9%), stop $207.87 (−4.5%), A.R:R -0.4:1. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $249.72 (-1.9% upside). Target $249.72 (+14.9%), stop $207.87 (−4.5%), A.R:R -0.4:1. Stop-loss: $207.87.

What are the risks of investing in MS?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 5.2): -1.5.

Is MS overvalued or undervalued?

Morgan Stanley trades at a P/E of 17.1 (forward 15.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MS?

33 analysts cover MS with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $237.

What does Morgan Stanley do?Morgan Stanley is a global financial services firm serving corporations, governments, financial institutions, and...

Morgan Stanley is a global financial services firm serving corporations, governments, financial institutions, and individuals through three segments: Institutional Securities, Wealth Management, and Investment Management. The firm operates globally from New York headquarters and offices in London, Frankfurt, Tokyo, and Hong Kong, regulated by the Federal Reserve as a financial holding company.

Related stocks: GS (Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The)) · HOOD (Robinhood Markets, Inc.) · SCHW (Charles Schwab Corporation (The) · IBKR (Interactive Brokers Group, Inc.)
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