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MSMorgan StanleySell7.0·$214.48-0.33%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Morgan Stanley has delivered 4 consecutive earnings beats averaging 16.7% positive surprise and earns strong margins of 25%, but trades above analyst targets with a negative asymmetry ratio and an earnings report due in 29 days that could serve as a catalyst in either direction.

Thesis pillars

  • Leverage Near 52 Week HighDeteriorating
  • Earnings Beat Streak CatalystDeteriorating
  • High Quality MarginsStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Morgan Stanley (MS) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Capital Markets

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $214.48 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 5.0): -1.5.

Morgan Stanley is a global financial services firm serving corporations, governments, financial institutions, and individuals through three segments: Institutional Securities, Wealth Management, and Investment Management. The firm operates globally from New York headquarters and... Read more

$214.48-0.8% A.UpsideScore 7.0/10#5 of 49 Capital Markets
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.14%(5y avg 2.98%)Payout32.31%sustainable
Stop $200.52Target $227.60(resistance)A.R:R -0.1:1
Analyst target$236.33+10.2%21 analysts
$227.60our TP
$214.48price
$236.33mean
$184
$262

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $214.48 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 5.0): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 7.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 81d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-26
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Oct 14, 202681d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 5.0): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.4
P/E (Fwd)15.8
Mkt Cap$337.2B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn25.9%
ROE
Rev Growth28.0%
Beta1.22
Dividend2.14%
Rating analysts32

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.62bearish
IV45%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 ceiling hits

GatesA.R:R -0.1=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.6>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 81d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
42 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $206.72Resistance $232.25

Price Targets

$201
$228
A.Upside-0.8%
A.R:R-0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-0.8% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-14 (81d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $214.48 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 5.0): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $200.52. Score 7.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $227.60 (-0.8% upside). Prior stop was $200.52. Stop-loss: $200.52.

What are the risks of investing in MS?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 5.0): -1.5.

Is MS overvalued or undervalued?

Morgan Stanley trades at a P/E of 17.4 (forward 15.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MS?

32 analysts cover MS with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $236.

What does Morgan Stanley do?Morgan Stanley is a global financial services firm serving corporations, governments, financial institutions, and...

Morgan Stanley is a global financial services firm serving corporations, governments, financial institutions, and individuals through three segments: Institutional Securities, Wealth Management, and Investment Management. The firm operates globally from New York headquarters and offices in London, Frankfurt, Tokyo, and Hong Kong, regulated by the Federal Reserve as a financial holding company.

Related stocks: GS (Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The)) · SCHW (Charles Schwab Corporation (The) · IBKR (Interactive Brokers Group, Inc.) · HOOD (Robinhood Markets, Inc.)
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