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MORNMorningstar, Inc.Buy Wait6.4·$165.94+2.45%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Morningstar is a high-quality franchise trading at a compelling discount — a forward earnings multiple of 12.8x and a price-to-growth ratio of 0.26 — but a confirmed technical downtrend and a death cross currently block entry, requiring patience for a technical reversal before the valuation opportunity can be captured.

Thesis pillars

  • Deep Value Growth DiscountStable
  • Wide Moat High ReturnsStable
  • Consistent Earnings Beat StreakStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Morningstar, Inc. (MORN) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

Buy WaitDEATH CROSS (EXEMPT)VALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Financial Data & Stock Exchanges

Wait for pullback to $146.00. At $165.94 the A.R:R is 1.4:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $146.00 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0; Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Morningstar, Inc. provides independent investment data, research, ratings, and investment management services through five segments — Morningstar Direct Platform, PitchBook, Morningstar Credit, Morningstar Wealth, and Morningstar Retirement. The company managed $378.0 billion in... Read more

$165.94+25.7% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#2 of 11 Financial Data & Stock Exchanges
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield7.18%
IncomeYield1.21%(5y avg 0.62%)Payout19.53%sustainable
Entry $146.00(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $130.70Target $198.90(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.4:1
Analyst target$234.00+41.0%3 analysts
$198.90our TP
$165.94price
$234.00mean
$280

Wait for pullback to $146.00. At $165.94 the A.R:R is 1.4:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $146.00 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0; Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 41. V9 Gate blocked: R/R 1.4x at spot < 1.5 minimum. Wait for improvement. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/12 gates (positive momentum, positive momentum, news events none recent, earnings proximity 26d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear, sector concentration cap sector=financial services 3/10). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: speculative.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Morningstar, Inc.

About Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. managed $378.0 billion in assets under management and advisement (AUMA) as of December 31, 2025 — $305.2 billion through Morningstar Retirement and $72.8 billion through Morningstar Wealth's Investment Management offerings — alongside data, research, and ratings products delivered through five segments: Morningstar Direct Platform, PitchBook, Morningstar Credit, Morningstar Wealth, and Morningstar Retirement.

Morningstar earns revenue through multiple models across its segments: license-based data and software fees from Morningstar Direct Platform, with an estimated 101%-104% annual revenue renewal rate across its Data, Direct, and Advisor Workstation products in 2025; user-based licensing for the PitchBook platform, which served approximately 10,200 client accounts and 113,451 licensed users as of December 31, 2025; issuance-based and recurring surveillance fees for Morningstar Credit's DBRS ratings business, which rated more than 4,000 issuers and 60,000 securities; asset-based fees on the $378.0 billion in AUMA across Morningstar Wealth and Morningstar Retirement; and subscription and advertising revenue from Morningstar Investor and Morningstar.com. Key competitors include Bloomberg, FactSet, and LSEG's Refinitiv across data and analytics, Moody's Ratings, S&P Global Ratings, Fitch Ratings, and Kroll Bond Rating in credit ratings, and BlackRock's Preqin in private markets data.

Show full overview

Morningstar's credit ratings business highlights a structural conflict-of-interest risk inherent to the issuer-pay model: DBRS receives payment from the issuers whose debt it rates rather than from the investors who consume the ratings, a dynamic the 10-K acknowledges may lead to perceptions that its research and ratings are not independently determined. The same tension extends to Morningstar's fund and ETF ratings, where the company both charges licensing fees to the asset managers it rates and offers competing investment advisory products, exposing it to claims that it is both the referee and the player in the same industry.

See also: Financial Services · Financial Data & Stock Exchanges

From Morningstar, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 3, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202626d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0
Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend)
Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 1.9), Material insider selling (72 sells, 0.28% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.0
P/E (Fwd)12.3
Mkt Cap$6.3B
EV/EBITDA12.0
Profit Mgn16.1%
ROE30.7%
Rev Growth10.8%
Beta1.01
Dividend1.21%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.83neutral
IV57%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMProductMRA
    10-K Item 1: 'MRA represented more than half of Morningstar Retirement AUMA and accounted for the majority of revenue in 2025.'
  • MEDIUMProductfiduciary services
    10-K Item 1: 'Fiduciary services was the second-largest Morningstar Retirement product by revenue in 2025, accounting for approximately a quarter of overall AUMA.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-07Item 5.02LOW
    Director Gail Landis did not stand for re-election at the May 7, 2026 Annual Shareholders' Meeting after reaching mandatory retirement age under company policy; board size was set at 10 directors following the meeting.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R 1.4 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)INSIDER 0.28%=MODERATEDeath cross exempted (quality + momentum high enough)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 5.3>=4.5NEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 26d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSECTOR CONCENTRATION CAP sector=Financial Services 3/10RecoverySuitability: Speculative
RSI
41 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $141.49Resistance $189.99

Price Targets

$131
$146
$199
A.Upside+19.9%
A.R:R1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1.1%
Max %2.1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! R/R 1.4x at spot < 1.5 minimum
! asymmetry at 1.4 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (26d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MORN stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $146.00. At $165.94 the A.R:R is 1.4:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $146.00 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0; Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 41. V9 Gate blocked: R/R 1.4x at spot < 1.5 minimum. Wait for improvement. Target $198.90 (+19.9%), stop $130.70 (−27.0%), A.R:R 1.4:1. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MORN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $198.90 (+25.7% upside). Target $198.90 (+19.9%), stop $130.70 (−27.0%), A.R:R 1.4:1. Stop-loss: $130.70.

What are the risks of investing in MORN?

Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0; Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 1.9), Material insider selling (72 sells, 0.28% of cap).

Is MORN overvalued or undervalued?

Morningstar, Inc. trades at a P/E of 17.0 (forward 12.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about MORN?

9 analysts cover MORN with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $234.

What does Morningstar, Inc. do?Morningstar, Inc. provides independent investment data, research, ratings, and investment management services through...

Morningstar, Inc. provides independent investment data, research, ratings, and investment management services through five segments — Morningstar Direct Platform, PitchBook, Morningstar Credit, Morningstar Wealth, and Morningstar Retirement. The company managed $378.0 billion in assets under management and advisement as of December 31, 2025 and served customers including asset managers, financial advisors, private capital investors, and individual investors, with Morningstar DBRS ranked among the top four global credit rating agencies.

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