Molina Healthcare carries a quality score below the minimum acceptable threshold, declining revenues, and an erratic earnings track record — compounded by heavy Medicaid and geographic concentration — making the current setup structurally weak with the stock already trading above its near-term target.
Thesis pillars
- Medicaid Revenue Concentration→Stable
- Erratic Earnings Delivery→Stable
- Quality Below Floor Declining Revenue→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Molina Healthcare Inc (MOH) Stock Analysis
Healthcare · Healthcare Plans
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $227.70: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.5/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.17; Below-average business quality.
Molina Healthcare provides managed Medicaid, Medicare, and Marketplace health plans across 21 states to approximately 5.5 million members. Medicaid constituted 75% of $43.1 billion in premium revenue in 2025; the company positions itself as a pure-play government-sponsored... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $227.70: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.5/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.17; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 3.5/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 17d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Molina Healthcare Inc
About Molina Healthcare Inc
Molina Healthcare generated $45.4 billion in total revenue in 2025, including $43.1 billion in premium revenue across approximately 5.5 million members in 21 states. Medicaid contributed $32.2 billion, or 75% of premium revenue; Medicare added $6.2 billion (14%); and Marketplace generated $4.5 billion (10%). The company's medical care ratio rose to 91.7% in 2025 from 89.1% in 2024, compressing net income from $1.179 billion to $472 million.
Molina earns revenue from per-member-per-month capitation payments under Medicaid, Medicare Advantage, Medicare Special Needs Plans, and Marketplace contracts with state agencies and CMS. Premium rates are fixed by government contract and typically revised annually, creating a lag when medical cost trends outpace rate adjustments — a dynamic that materially impacted the company in 2024 and 2025. The top four Medicaid state contracts — California ($4.2 billion, 13% of Medicaid premium), Texas ($5.7 billion, 18%), Washington ($4.2 billion, 13%), and New York ($3.2 billion, 10%) — together generated $17.3 billion, roughly 54% of total Medicaid premium revenue in 2025. Molina's Marketplace segment membership is tied to federal premium subsidies; advanced premium tax credits expired at year-end 2025, creating membership attrition risk in 2026 and an adverse selection shift in the overall Marketplace risk pool. The company has achieved a 90% Medicaid RFP re-procurement win rate since 2019, representing $14 billion in retained revenue.
Show full overview
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act is expected to drive a 15% to 20% reduction on 1.2 million members in Molina's Medicaid Expansion enrollment over the next two to three years, per the company's 2025 10-K — a contraction that could further raise per-member medical costs as healthier enrollees exit. Combined with the lapse of Marketplace premium subsidies, the company entered 2026 navigating simultaneous enrollment compression and acuity deterioration across two of its three largest revenue segments. Molina's long-term premium revenue growth target remains at 11% to 13%, and management indicated the company is on pace to surpass $50 billion in premium revenue in 2027.
See also: Healthcare · Healthcare Plans
From Molina Healthcare Inc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-07Recent Developments — Molina Healthcare Inc
Latest news
- NEWS 8 Health Care Stocks Whale Activity In Today’s Session — benzinga Jul 3, 2026 neutral
- NEWS RBC Capital Initiates Coverage On Molina Healthcare with Sector Perform Rating, Announces Price Target of $216 — benzinga Jun 23, 2026
- NEWS Molina Healthcare Subdidiary Molina Healthcare Of Illinois Awarded 4.5 Year Contract By Illinois Department Of Healthcar — benzinga Jun 10, 2026 positive
- NEWS Molina Healthcare Awarded 4.5 Year Contract By Illinois Department Of Healthcare And Family Services, To Begin January 1 — benzinga Jun 10, 2026 positive
- NEWS Morgan Stanley Maintains Equal-Weight on Molina Healthcare, Raises Price Target to $167 — benzinga Jun 4, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-07-07T13:21:48Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductMedicaid75%10-K Item 1: 'Our Medicaid premium revenue constituted 75% of our consolidated premium revenue in the year ended December 31, 2025'
- HIGHCustomerCalifornia, New York, Texas, Washington54%10-K Item 1A: 'our top four health plans were in California, New York, Texas, and Washington ... approximately 54% of total Medicaid premium revenue'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-11Item 5.02LOWMolina Healthcare stockholders approved amendment to 2025 Equity Incentive Plan at Annual Meeting held May 6, 2026, increasing authorized shares by 1,500,000 to 3,295,000 total shares. Board previously approved subject to stockholder approval.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
5 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -4.3% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $227.70: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.5/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.17; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $211.76. Score 3.5/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $231.53 (+1.7% upside). Prior stop was $211.76. Stop-loss: $211.76.
Concentration risk — Product: Medicaid (75.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: California, New York, Texas, Washington (54.0%); Target reached (-24.2% upside).
Molina Healthcare Inc trades at a P/E of 61.8 (forward 24.6). TrendMatrix value score: 4.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
25 analysts cover MOH with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $192.
What does Molina Healthcare Inc do?Molina Healthcare provides managed Medicaid, Medicare, and Marketplace health plans across 21 states to approximately...
Molina Healthcare provides managed Medicaid, Medicare, and Marketplace health plans across 21 states to approximately 5.5 million members. Medicaid constituted 75% of $43.1 billion in premium revenue in 2025; the company positions itself as a pure-play government-sponsored health plan.