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Alignment Healthcare, Inc. (ALHC) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Healthcare Plans

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $16.35: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10 and A.R:R 2.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

Alignment Healthcare provides Medicare Advantage health plans in 45 markets across California, North Carolina, Nevada, Arizona, and Texas, serving 236,300 Health Plan Members as of December 31, 2025. Revenue consists almost entirely of capitated PMPM payments from CMS under... Read more

$16.35+33.8% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#1 of 11 Healthcare Plans
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield6.94%
Stop $15.22Target $21.88(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.9:1
Analyst target$25.15+53.8%13 analysts
$21.88our TP
$16.35price
$25.15mean
$30

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $16.35: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10 and A.R:R 2.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 67d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Alignment Healthcare, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-24T12:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: CMS
Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -0.2%), Material insider selling (9 sells, 0.02% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)163.5
P/E (Fwd)22.6
Mkt Cap$3.4B
EV/EBITDA44.4
Profit Mgn0.5%
ROE12.5%
Rev Growth33.3%
Beta1.27
DividendNone
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.88neutral
IV58%elevated
Max Pain$25+52.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerCMS
    10-K Item 1: 'We currently derive substantially all of our revenue from CMS contracts related to our Medicare Advantage health plans.'
  • MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia
    10-K Item 1: 'Alignment offered Medicare Advantage plans in 45 markets across California (22 markets)'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+5.2%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.2
Operating Margin
0.5
Roa
1.4
Roe
4.2
Moat
5.4
Current Ratio
5.7
Piotroski F
7.8
Fcf Quality
10.0
Excellent cash conversion: 1000% FCF/NINo competitive moatStrong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R 2.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 67d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
30 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $15.69Resistance $22.57

Price Targets

$15
$22
A.Upside+33.8%
A.R:R2.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -0.2%), Material insider selling (9 sells, 0.02% of cap)
! Momentum score 3.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (67d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ALHC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $16.35: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10 and A.R:R 2.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $15.22. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ALHC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $21.88 (+33.8% upside). Prior stop was $15.22. Stop-loss: $15.22.

What are the risks of investing in ALHC?

Concentration risk — Customer: CMS; Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -0.2%), Material insider selling (9 sells, 0.02% of cap).

Is ALHC overvalued or undervalued?

Alignment Healthcare, Inc. trades at a P/E of 163.5 (forward 22.6). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ALHC?

20 analysts cover ALHC with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $25.

What does Alignment Healthcare, Inc. do?Alignment Healthcare provides Medicare Advantage health plans in 45 markets across California, North Carolina, Nevada,...

Alignment Healthcare provides Medicare Advantage health plans in 45 markets across California, North Carolina, Nevada, Arizona, and Texas, serving 236,300 Health Plan Members as of December 31, 2025. Revenue consists almost entirely of capitated PMPM payments from CMS under Medicare Advantage contracts. California accounts for 22 of 45 markets.

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