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Molina Healthcare Inc (MOH) Stock Analysis

SellHigh Confidence

Healthcare · Healthcare Plans

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $182.47: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Molina Healthcare provides managed care under Medicaid (75% of 2025 premium revenue, 4.57M members), Medicare, and Marketplace segments across 21 US states, serving approximately 5.5 million members total. Premium revenue was $43.1B in 2025 with an MCR of 91.7%; top four... Read more

$182.47+7.2% A.UpsideScore 3.6/10#11 of 11 Healthcare Plans
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield7.86%
Stop $170.47Target $196.54(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$182.88+0.2%16 analysts
$196.54our TP
$182.47price
$182.88mean
$129
$262

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $182.47: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 3.6/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 64d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Molina Healthcare Inc

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Medicaid program (75.0%)
Target reached (-10.2% upside)
Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)49.6
P/E (Fwd)20.1
Mkt Cap$9.6B
EV/EBITDA6.8
Profit Mgn0.4%
ROE4.5%
Rev Growth-4.3%
Beta0.85
DividendNone
Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.94neutral
IV51%elevated
Max Pain$360+97.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductMedicaid program75%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our Medicaid premium revenue constituted 75% of our consolidated premium revenue in the year ended December 31, 2025.'
  • MEDIUMGeographictop four Medicaid states (CA, NY, TX, WA)54%
    10-K Item 1A: 'top four health plans were in California, New York, Texas, and Washington, with aggregate Medicaid premium revenue of $17.3 billion, or approximately 54% of total Medicaid premium revenue'
  • LOWGeographicTexas Medicaid18%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our Texas Medicaid contracts represented approximately $5,735 million, or 18%, of consolidated Medicaid premium revenue in 2025.'
  • LOWGeographicCalifornia Medicaid13%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our California Medicaid contracts represented premium revenue of approximately $4,170 million, or 13%, of our consolidated Medicaid premium revenue in 2025.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -4.3% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
1.4
Declining revenue: -4%

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
5.0
Rsi
8.0
Uptrend pullback (RSI 35) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-MA but MA slope flat

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.2
Operating Margin
0.7
Roa
1.3
Roe
1.5
Moat
3.1
Piotroski F
4.4
Current Ratio
5.9
Fcf Quality
10.0
Excellent cash conversion: 403% FCF/NINo competitive moat

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
3.2
Value Rank
4.7

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.5
Support Resistance
3.5
Bollinger
5.7
GatesMomentum 2.8<4.5A.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 64d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
35 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $151.21Resistance $200.55

Price Targets

$170
$197
A.Upside+7.7%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-10.2% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 2.8/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (64d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MOH stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $182.47: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $170.47. Score 3.6/10, high confidence.

What is the MOH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $196.54 (+7.2% upside). Prior stop was $170.47. Stop-loss: $170.47.

What are the risks of investing in MOH?

Concentration risk — Product: Medicaid program (75.0%); Target reached (-10.2% upside); Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0).

Is MOH overvalued or undervalued?

Molina Healthcare Inc trades at a P/E of 49.6 (forward 20.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MOH?

24 analysts cover MOH with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $183.

What does Molina Healthcare Inc do?Molina Healthcare provides managed care under Medicaid (75% of 2025 premium revenue, 4.57M members), Medicare, and...

Molina Healthcare provides managed care under Medicaid (75% of 2025 premium revenue, 4.57M members), Medicare, and Marketplace segments across 21 US states, serving approximately 5.5 million members total. Premium revenue was $43.1B in 2025 with an MCR of 91.7%; top four Medicaid states (California, New York, Texas, Washington) account for ~54% of Medicaid premium revenue.

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