Molina Healthcare Inc (MOH) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Healthcare · Healthcare Plans
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $200.21: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.0/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.31; Below-average business quality.
Molina Healthcare provides managed care under Medicaid (75% of 2025 premium revenue, 4.57M members), Medicare, and Marketplace segments across 21 US states, serving approximately 5.5 million members total. Premium revenue was $43.1B in 2025 with an MCR of 91.7%; top four... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $200.21: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.0/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.31; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Score 4.0/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 36d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Molina Healthcare Inc
About Molina Healthcare Inc
Molina Healthcare generated $45.4 billion in total revenue in 2025, including $43.1 billion in premium revenue across approximately 5.5 million members in 21 states. Medicaid contributed $32.2 billion, or 75% of premium revenue; Medicare added $6.2 billion (14%); and Marketplace generated $4.5 billion (10%). The company's medical care ratio rose to 91.7% in 2025 from 89.1% in 2024, compressing net income from $1.179 billion to $472 million.
Molina earns revenue from per-member-per-month capitation payments under Medicaid, Medicare Advantage, Medicare Special Needs Plans, and Marketplace contracts with state agencies and CMS. Premium rates are fixed by government contract and typically revised annually, creating a lag when medical cost trends outpace rate adjustments — a dynamic that materially impacted the company in 2024 and 2025. The top four Medicaid state contracts — California ($4.2 billion, 13% of Medicaid premium), Texas ($5.7 billion, 18%), Washington ($4.2 billion, 13%), and New York ($3.2 billion, 10%) — together generated $17.3 billion, roughly 54% of total Medicaid premium revenue in 2025. Molina's Marketplace segment membership is tied to federal premium subsidies; advanced premium tax credits expired at year-end 2025, creating membership attrition risk in 2026 and an adverse selection shift in the overall Marketplace risk pool. The company has achieved a 90% Medicaid RFP re-procurement win rate since 2019, representing $14 billion in retained revenue.
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The One Big Beautiful Bill Act is expected to drive a 15% to 20% reduction on 1.2 million members in Molina's Medicaid Expansion enrollment over the next two to three years, per the company's 2025 10-K — a contraction that could further raise per-member medical costs as healthier enrollees exit. Combined with the lapse of Marketplace premium subsidies, the company entered 2026 navigating simultaneous enrollment compression and acuity deterioration across two of its three largest revenue segments. Molina's long-term premium revenue growth target remains at 11% to 13%, and management indicated the company is on pace to surpass $50 billion in premium revenue in 2027.
See also: Healthcare · Healthcare Plans
From Molina Healthcare Inc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-17Recent Developments — Molina Healthcare Inc
Latest news
- NEWS Molina Healthcare Subdidiary Molina Healthcare Of Illinois Awarded 4.5 Year Contract By Illinois Department Of Healthcar — benzinga Jun 10, 2026 positive
- NEWS Molina Healthcare Awarded 4.5 Year Contract By Illinois Department Of Healthcare And Family Services, To Begin January 1 — benzinga Jun 10, 2026 positive
- NEWS Morgan Stanley Maintains Equal-Weight on Molina Healthcare, Raises Price Target to $167 — benzinga Jun 4, 2026 positive
- NEWS UBS Maintains Neutral on Molina Healthcare, Raises Price Target to $202 — benzinga May 22, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Trump's Trading Disclosure Shows Activity In Nvidia, AMD, Microsoft, Oracle And Other Major Stocks — benzinga May 14, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-06-17T09:12:25Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductMedicaid program75%10-K Item 1: 'Our Medicaid premium revenue constituted 75% of our consolidated premium revenue in the year ended December 31, 2025.'
- MEDIUMGeographictop four Medicaid states (CA, NY, TX, WA)54%10-K Item 1A: 'top four health plans were in California, New York, Texas, and Washington, with aggregate Medicaid premium revenue of $17.3 billion, or approximately 54% of total Medicaid premium revenue'
- LOWGeographicTexas Medicaid18%10-K Item 1: 'Our Texas Medicaid contracts represented approximately $5,735 million, or 18%, of consolidated Medicaid premium revenue in 2025.'
- LOWGeographicCalifornia Medicaid13%10-K Item 1: 'Our California Medicaid contracts represented premium revenue of approximately $4,170 million, or 13%, of our consolidated Medicaid premium revenue in 2025.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
5 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -4.3% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $200.21: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.0/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.31; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $186.20. Score 4.0/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $200.85 (+0.3% upside). Prior stop was $186.20. Stop-loss: $186.20.
Concentration risk — Product: Medicaid program (75.0%); Target reached (-14.5% upside); Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0).
Molina Healthcare Inc trades at a P/E of 54.1 (forward 21.8). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
24 analysts cover MOH with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $190.
What does Molina Healthcare Inc do?Molina Healthcare provides managed care under Medicaid (75% of 2025 premium revenue, 4.57M members), Medicare, and...
Molina Healthcare provides managed care under Medicaid (75% of 2025 premium revenue, 4.57M members), Medicare, and Marketplace segments across 21 US states, serving approximately 5.5 million members total. Premium revenue was $43.1B in 2025 with an MCR of 91.7%; top four Medicaid states (California, New York, Texas, Washington) account for ~54% of Medicaid premium revenue.