Molina Healthcare Inc (MOH) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Healthcare · Healthcare Plans
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $197.43: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.
Molina Healthcare provides managed healthcare services under Medicaid, Medicare, and Marketplace programs across 21 states, serving ~5.5 million members with $43B in premium revenue in 2025. Revenue is almost entirely government-contracted monthly premiums; Medicaid constitutes... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $197.43: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 95. Score 3.6/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductMedicaid75%10-K Item 1A: 'Our Medicaid premium revenue constituted 75% of our consolidated premium revenue in the year ended December 31, 2025'
- HIGHGeographictop-4 Medicaid health plans (California, New York, Texas, and Washington)54%10-K Item 1A: 'our top four health plans were in California, New York, Texas, and Washington...approximately 54% of total Medicaid premium revenue'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-02-06Item 2.06MEDIUMMolina amended its Credit Agreement February 4, 2026, temporarily reducing the minimum quarterly interest coverage ratio from 3.00:1.00 to 1.75:1.00 for fiscal quarters ending March 31, 2026 through December 31, 2026, stepping up through September 2027.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
5 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Revenue shrinking — -4.3% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $197.43: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 95. Prior stop was $183.81. Score 3.6/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $194.44 (-1.6% upside). Prior stop was $183.81. Stop-loss: $183.81.
Concentration risk — Product: Medicaid (75.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: top-4 Medicaid health plans (California, New York, Texas, and Washington) (54.0%); Target reached (-20.8% upside).
Molina Healthcare Inc trades at a P/E of 52.7 (forward 22.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
24 analysts cover MOH with a consensus score of 3.3/5. Average price target: $174.
What does Molina Healthcare Inc do?Molina Healthcare provides managed healthcare services under Medicaid, Medicare, and Marketplace programs across 21...
Molina Healthcare provides managed healthcare services under Medicaid, Medicare, and Marketplace programs across 21 states, serving ~5.5 million members with $43B in premium revenue in 2025. Revenue is almost entirely government-contracted monthly premiums; Medicaid constitutes 75% of premium revenue.