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MOAltria Group, Inc.Hold6.0·$72.64+1.54%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Altria Group delivers exceptional operating margins of 40%, a Piotroski score of 8 out of 9, and a Rule of 40 of 47, but the stock has exceeded analyst price targets, carries a geographic concentration risk in a single country, and the dividend yield has been flagged as potentially unsustainable.

Thesis pillars

  • Exceptional Operating MarginsStable
  • Dividend Sustainability ConcernStable
  • Geographic Concentration RiskStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Altria Group, Inc. (MO) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Tobacco

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $72.64, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-country nicotine source.

Altria Group manufactures and sells tobacco and nicotine products in the United States through PM USA (cigarettes), USSTC (smokeless tobacco), Helix (oral nicotine pouches), and NJOY (e-vapor), employing approximately 5,900 people. Revenue is generated almost entirely from... Read more

$72.64-0.1% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#3 of 7 Tobacco
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield7.04%
IncomeYield5.83%(5y avg 7.64%)Payout87.68%at-risk
Stop $69.63Target $72.66(resistance)A.R:R -2.5:1
Analyst target$70.36-3.1%11 analysts
$72.66our TP
$72.64price
$70.36mean
$59
$82

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $72.64, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-country nicotine source. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 27d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: conservative.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Altria Group, Inc.

About Altria Group, Inc.

Altria Group sold 61.8 billion cigarette units through PM USA — the largest cigarette company in the United States — and 732.4 million units of oral tobacco products in 2025, employing approximately 5,900 people at December 31, 2025. The company generates substantially all revenue from domestic U.S. customers across three reportable segments: smokeable products, oral tobacco products, and e-vapor, with Marlboro holding the position of largest-selling U.S. cigarette brand for over 50 years. In 2025, ITC exclusion and cease-and-desist orders on NJOY ACE triggered goodwill and intangible asset impairments in the e-vapor reporting unit.

Altria's smokeable products segment, led by PM USA and Middleton (cigars), sells principally to wholesalers and large retail organizations throughout the United States. PM USA purchases the majority of its burley and flue-cured leaf tobaccos directly from domestic growers under a contract growing program, while Middleton purchases through leaf merchants. PM USA faces annual healthcare cost recovery litigation settlement payments that competing manufacturers not party to those settlements are not required to match, creating a structural pricing challenge against discount brands. The oral tobacco segment spans Copenhagen, Skoal, and Red Seal MST products alongside the on! nicotine pouch brand from Helix. NJOY — which contracts with third-party importers to supply all of its products — faces ITC exclusion orders on NJOY ACE pending appeal before the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit. Altria also holds a 75% stake in Horizon, a joint venture with Japan Tobacco for U.S. commercialization of heated tobacco stick products, pending FDA authorization.

Show full overview

A single-source material risk surfaces in the smoke-free pivot: Altria's 10-K discloses that nicotine used in innovative smoke-free products is extracted from tobacco produced in one country, and if alternate sources cannot be identified, supply disruption could impair the company's growth initiatives. This exposure intersects with the accelerating volume decline in cigarettes — down 10% in 2025 — as the company depends on smoke-free product growth for long-term revenue offset. In 2025, the ITC's exclusion orders prohibiting NJOY ACE importation resulted in impairment charges to the e-vapor reporting unit, with the pending appeal to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit leaving the ban in effect during proceedings.

See also: Consumer Defensive · Tobacco

From Altria Group, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202627d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: United States
Concentration risk — Supplier: single-country nicotine source
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.2
P/E (Fwd)12.4
Mkt Cap$121.4B
EV/EBITDA9.0
Profit Mgn39.5%
ROE
Rev Growth5.3%
Beta0.49
Dividend5.83%
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.23bearish
IV37%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicUnited States
    10-K Item 1: 'we operate primarily within the United States and generate substantially all of our revenue from domestic customers'
  • HIGHSuppliersingle-country nicotine source
    10-K Item 1A: 'the nicotine used in our operating companies' innovative smoke-free products is extracted from tobacco produced in one country'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-18Item 5.02LOW
    Compensation arrangements disclosed for newly elected CEO Salvatore Mancuso and new CFO, effective upon conclusion of Annual Meeting on May 14, 2026. Appointments were previously reported. No departure without successor.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -2.5=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 5.3>=4.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 27d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Conservative
RSI
59 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $68.07Resistance $74.14

Price Targets

$70
$73
A.Upside+0.0%
A.R:R-2.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-15.8% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (27d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MO stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $72.64, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-country nicotine source. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $72.66 (+0.0%), stop $69.63 (−4.3%), A.R:R -2.5:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $72.66 (-0.1% upside). Target $72.66 (+0.0%), stop $69.63 (−4.3%), A.R:R -2.5:1. Stop-loss: $69.63.

What are the risks of investing in MO?

Concentration risk — Geographic: United States; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-country nicotine source; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is MO overvalued or undervalued?

Altria Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 15.2 (forward 12.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MO?

23 analysts cover MO with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $70.

What does Altria Group, Inc. do?Altria Group manufactures and sells tobacco and nicotine products in the United States through PM USA (cigarettes),...

Altria Group manufactures and sells tobacco and nicotine products in the United States through PM USA (cigarettes), USSTC (smokeless tobacco), Helix (oral nicotine pouches), and NJOY (e-vapor), employing approximately 5,900 people. Revenue is generated almost entirely from domestic U.S. customers, with Marlboro as the principal cigarette brand.

Related stocks: BTI (British American Tobacco Indus) · PM (Philip Morris International Inc) · COKE (Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc.) · MNST (Monster Beverage Corporation) · BG (Bunge Limited)
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