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Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Brewers

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $156.55 — A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: beer brands.

Constellation Brands is a producer and marketer of beer, wine, and spirits with operations in the US, Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy. It is the second-largest beer company in the US and holds the #1 beer brand (Modelo Especial) by dollar sales; beer brands represent the vast... Read more

$156.55+2.1% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#4 of 8 Beverages - Brewers
Stop $148.39Target $159.79(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.4:1
Analyst target$177.55+13.4%22 analysts
$159.79our TP
$156.55price
$177.55mean
$131
$209

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $156.55 — A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: beer brands. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 62d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: beer brands
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.7
P/E (Fwd)12.1
Mkt Cap$25.9B
EV/EBITDA11.0
Profit Mgn18.5%
ROE22.6%
Rev Growth-11.3%
Beta0.43
Dividend2.74%
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.90bearish
IV41%normal
Max Pain$110-29.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductbeer brands
    10-K Item 1A: 'sales of our beer brands in the U.S. represent the vast majority of our business'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-12Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Board appointed Nicholas I. Fink as President and CEO effective April 13, 2026, succeeding prior leadership. Fink had been CEO of Fortune Brands Innovations since 2020. Clean handoff with named successor and start date.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -11.3% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Declining revenue: -11%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
5.0
Rsi
8.1
Uptrend pullback (RSI 34) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-MA but MA slope flat

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.3
Value Rank
2.5
Quality Rank
8.8
Superior ROE vs peersBest-in-class margins
GatesMomentum 2.8<4.5A.R:R 0.4 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 62d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
34 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $148.26Resistance $167.48

Price Targets

$148
$160
A.Upside+2.1%
A.R:R0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.1% upside)
! Momentum score 2.8/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.4:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-01 (62d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is STZ stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $156.55 — A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: beer brands. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $148.39. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the STZ stock price target?

Take-profit target: $159.79 (+2.1% upside). Prior stop was $148.39. Stop-loss: $148.39.

What are the risks of investing in STZ?

Concentration risk — Product: beer brands; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5.

Is STZ overvalued or undervalued?

Constellation Brands, Inc. trades at a P/E of 15.7 (forward 12.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about STZ?

28 analysts cover STZ with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $178.

What does Constellation Brands, Inc. do?Constellation Brands is a producer and marketer of beer, wine, and spirits with operations in the US, Mexico, New...

Constellation Brands is a producer and marketer of beer, wine, and spirits with operations in the US, Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy. It is the second-largest beer company in the US and holds the #1 beer brand (Modelo Especial) by dollar sales; beer brands represent the vast majority of revenue. Wine and spirits have been repositioned to exclusively higher-end brands.

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