Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Brewers
Sell if holding. At $146.10, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: beer brands in the U.S.; Concentration risk — Supplier: Glass Plant (Owens-Illinois JV) (60.0%).
Constellation Brands is the #1 imported beer company in the US with Modelo Especial, Corona, and Pacifico brands, plus premium wine (Kim Crawford, Ruffino) and spirits (High West, Mi CAMPO). Beer accounted for $8.3B of $9.1B consolidated net sales in FY2026; all beer is brewed... Read more
Sell if holding. At $146.10, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: beer brands in the U.S.; Concentration risk — Supplier: Glass Plant (Owens-Illinois JV) (60.0%). Chart setup: RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 44d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent Developments — Constellation Brands, Inc.
Latest news
- Stocks to watch after market on Wednesday: ICCC, COST, STZ (STZ:NYSE) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha neutral
- Constellation Brands, U.S. maker of Modelo and Corona, withdraws 2028 guidance due to uncertainty - CNBC — CNBC negative
- Constellation Brands Earnings Slide But Beat Expectations - Investor's Business Daily — Investor's Business Daily positive
- Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ) Surprises With Q1 CY2026 Sales - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- Constellation Brands Stock Fizzles After Q4 Earnings: Here's Why - Benzinga — Benzinga negative
Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductbeer brands in the U.S.10-K Item 1A: 'sales of our beer brands in the U.S. represent the vast majority of our business'
- HIGHSupplierGlass Plant (Owens-Illinois JV)60%10-K Item 1: 'The Glass Plant supplies approximately 60% of the total annual glass bottle supply for our beer brands.'
- HIGHSuppliersingle glass container producer (U.S. wine/spirits operations)10-K Item 1: 'Currently, one producer supplies most of our glass container requirements for our U.S. operations.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-02-12Item 5.02MEDIUMNicholas I. Fink (former CEO of Fortune Brands Innovations) appointed President and CEO effective April 13, 2026. Employment Agreement entered February 10, 2026. Named successor for current CEO transition.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -11.3% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $146.10, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: beer brands in the U.S.; Concentration risk — Supplier: Glass Plant (Owens-Illinois JV) (60.0%). Chart setup: RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $138.56. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $159.79 (+8.3% upside). Prior stop was $138.56. Stop-loss: $138.56.
Concentration risk — Product: beer brands in the U.S.; Concentration risk — Supplier: Glass Plant (Owens-Illinois JV) (60.0%); Thin upside margin: 8.3%.
Constellation Brands, Inc. trades at a P/E of 14.8 (forward 11.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
28 analysts cover STZ with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $178.
What does Constellation Brands, Inc. do?Constellation Brands is the #1 imported beer company in the US with Modelo Especial, Corona, and Pacifico brands, plus...
Constellation Brands is the #1 imported beer company in the US with Modelo Especial, Corona, and Pacifico brands, plus premium wine (Kim Crawford, Ruffino) and spirits (High West, Mi CAMPO). Beer accounted for $8.3B of $9.1B consolidated net sales in FY2026; all beer is brewed in Mexico.