Best-in-class operating margins and strong underlying franchise quality coexist with a confirmed price downtrend, negative free cash flow, and a leadership transition — the risk/reward geometry remains unfavorable and patience is warranted.
Thesis pillars
- Confirmed Price Downtrend→Stable
- Negative Free Cash Flow→Stable
- Best In Class Operating Margins→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
MGE Energy Inc. (MGEE) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Electric
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $84.23 — A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Overbought (RSI 80).
MGE Energy is a regulated electric and gas utility serving approximately 170,000 electric and 180,000 gas customers in Dane County and seven south-central Wisconsin counties. Electric operations accounted for roughly 72% of MGE's 2025 regulated revenues, with natural gas... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $84.23 — A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Overbought (RSI 80). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 80. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 32d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About MGE Energy Inc.
About MGE Energy Inc.
MGE Energy supplied electric service to approximately 170,000 customers and natural gas to roughly 180,000 customers across Dane County and seven south-central Wisconsin counties in 2025, with electric operations contributing approximately 72% of MGE's regulated revenues. The company is regulated by the Public Service Commission of Wisconsin (PSCW) and FERC, and generated 913,612 MWh from renewable sources in 2025 alongside 1,750,273 MWh from coal and 756,966 MWh from natural gas.
MGE Energy earns revenue through cost-of-service rates authorized by the PSCW, which governs rates, capital expenditures, plant siting, and affiliate transactions. The company offers substantially all generation into MISO's bid-based energy market and supplements internal output with long-term power purchase agreements and spot purchases. Natural gas revenues flow from distributing gas across 1,722 square miles via interconnections with ANR Pipeline Company and Northern Natural Gas Company. Nonregulated subsidiaries — MGE Power Elm Road and MGE Power West Campus — own and lease generation capacity back to MGE. Rate proceedings offer no assurance that all costs will be recognized as reasonably incurred; authorized returns on equity depend on timely PSCW action that may involve consumer advocacy groups and judicial review. MGE also holds a 3.6% interest in American Transmission Company (ATC), regulated by FERC for rate terms and conditions of service.
Show full overview
In October 2025, MGE and its co-owners filed a joint application with the PSCW to end coal use at the Elm Road Units and transition the plant to natural gas, with coal expected to serve only as backup fuel by end of 2030 and full transition targeted by end of 2032. In February 2026, the company executed an asset purchase agreement for 168 MW of existing gas-fired generation through an ownership share in the RockGen Energy Center near Cambridge, Wisconsin, subject to PSCW approval with closing expected in late 2027. OBBBA tax credit phase-outs and Foreign Entity of Concern compliance requirements may increase the cost of renewable substitution.
See also: Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Electric
From MGE Energy Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — MGE Energy Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS MGE Energy stock rises above $76.90 resistance despite mixed signals and storm risk - Traders Union — Traders Union positive
- NEWS MGE Energy stock trades at top of weekly range as price recovery faces resistance - Traders Union — Traders Union positive
- NEWS MGE Energy stock holds near resistance with upside momentum fading - Traders Union — Traders Union positive
- NEWS MGEE Q1 2026 Earnings: EPS Beats Estimates by 14.5%, Shares Edge Higher - Margin Guidance - newsline.com — newsline.com positive
- NEWS MGEE Q1 2026 Earnings: EPS Beats Estimates by 14.5%, Shares Edge Higher - Estimate Dispersion - newsline.com — newsline.com positive
Generated 2026-07-06T04:40:27Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicWisconsin10-K Item 1A: 'Our business activities, including those of our subsidiaries, are concentrated in the State of Wisconsin.'
- MEDIUMregulatoryPSCW10-K Item 1A: 'MGE Energy is subject to regulation as a holding company by the PSCW. The PSCW regulates MGE's rates; terms and conditions of service; various business practices and transactions'
- MEDIUMCommoditycoal10-K Item 1A: 'A significant portion of our electric generating capacity is dependent on coal.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-21Item 5.02LOWJared Bushek promoted from VP-CFO to EVP-CFO of MGE Energy and Madison Gas and Electric, effective May 1, 2026. Granted 25,000 RSU retention award cliff-vesting on 5th anniversary. No departure cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $84.23 — A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Overbought (RSI 80). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 80. Prior stop was $80.29. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $82.60 (-1.9% upside). Prior stop was $80.29. Stop-loss: $80.29.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Overbought (RSI 80).
MGE Energy Inc. trades at a P/E of 21.6 (forward 20.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
7 analysts cover MGEE with a consensus score of 2.1/5. Average price target: $77.
What does MGE Energy Inc. do?MGE Energy is a regulated electric and gas utility serving approximately 170,000 electric and 180,000 gas customers in...
MGE Energy is a regulated electric and gas utility serving approximately 170,000 electric and 180,000 gas customers in Dane County and seven south-central Wisconsin counties. Electric operations accounted for roughly 72% of MGE's 2025 regulated revenues, with natural gas contributing 28%; rates are authorized by the PSCW and FERC. The company targets net-zero carbon electricity by 2050 and plans to fully exit coal at the Elm Road Units by 2032.