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MDPediatrix Medical Group, Inc.Hold6.0·$26.26+2.66%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Pediatrix trades at a low forward multiple of 10.3x with a PEG of 0.21 and peer-leading margins, but deeply overbought conditions at an RSI of 90, a stock price already above the technical resistance target, and a recent officer-level change create a poor setup for new buyers despite the fundamental appeal.

Thesis pillars

  • Compelling Fundamental ValuationStable
  • Earnings Momentum With Recent StumbleImproving
  • Severely Overbought Above ResistanceDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc. (MD) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

HoldValueGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $26.26, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Pediatrix Medical Group operates a national network of approximately 2,295 affiliated physicians providing neonatal, maternal-fetal, and other pediatric subspecialty care at over 360 NICUs and 60 PICUs across 37 states. The company generates revenue through fee-for-service... Read more

$26.26-18.8% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#12 of 36 Medical Care Facilities
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield7.59%
Stop $24.42Target $27.38(resistance)A.R:R -2.1:1
Analyst target$24.50-6.7%6 analysts
$27.38our TP
$26.26price
$24.50mean
$19
$28

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $26.26, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-26
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 20268d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Positive insider activity
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.7
P/E (Fwd)11.1
Mkt Cap$2.2B
EV/EBITDA9.2
Profit Mgn9.0%
ROE20.9%
Rev Growth3.9%
Beta0.66
DividendNone
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C150.75bearish
IV76%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicTexas32%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Texas accounted for approximately 32% of our net revenue in 2025'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-07Item 5.02LOW
    Shareholders approved Second Amended and Restated 2008 Incentive Compensation Plan at May 7, 2026 Annual Meeting, increasing shares available for issuance by 8,000,000. Administrative compensatory arrangement approval; no officer departure or appointment.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesMomentum 4.3<4.5A.R:R -2.1=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentEARNINGS PROXIMITY 8d<=14d (soft)Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
43 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $23.87Resistance $27.94

Price Targets

$24
$27
A.Upside-18.8%
A.R:R-2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-18.8% upside)
! momentum at 4.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (8d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MD stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $26.26, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $27.38 (+4.3%), stop $24.42 (−7.5%), A.R:R -2.1:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $27.38 (-18.8% upside). Target $27.38 (+4.3%), stop $24.42 (−7.5%), A.R:R -2.1:1. Stop-loss: $24.42.

What are the risks of investing in MD?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is MD overvalued or undervalued?

Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.7 (forward 11.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MD?

15 analysts cover MD with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $25.

What does Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc. do?Pediatrix Medical Group operates a national network of approximately 2,295 affiliated physicians providing neonatal,...

Pediatrix Medical Group operates a national network of approximately 2,295 affiliated physicians providing neonatal, maternal-fetal, and other pediatric subspecialty care at over 360 NICUs and 60 PICUs across 37 states. The company generates revenue through fee-for-service billings to commercial and government payers; Texas accounted for approximately 32% of net revenue in 2025.

Related stocks: NUTX (Nutex Health Inc.) · SRTA (Strata Critical Medical, Inc.) · THC (Tenet Healthcare Corporation) · TOI (The Oncology Institute, Inc.) · ARDT (Ardent Health, Inc.)
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